Some more positive energy: Ed Reed

[organizedchaos21]

Since reed and Woodson retired it seems that no one can intercept passes consistently. I guess the nfl is changing or players aren’t as good idk?

Interceptions are extremely down. During Reed's career (2002-2013), there were 6127 interceptions in 6144 games (0.997/game). The numbers were even higher during Woodson's career.

2013 (0.98) was the last season with more than 0.90 INTs/game, with a new low of 0.80 in 2019. This dropoff in INT/game is accompanied by an increase in ATT/game, so INT/ATT is dropping even faster!

What we can do is adjust for era (filmstudy showed me how to do this). When adjusted, we find that Marcus Peters (0.50) has more adjusted INTs per game than any other player, including Ed Reed (0.47). Other active players near the top of the leaderboard include Kevin Byard (0.38), Richard Sherman (0.36), and Kyle Fuller (0.32). You can see the full list (and supporting data) here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

In short, I'd say the NFL is changing, and that players (QBs) are getting better. Players (e.g. Rodgers, Brady) are throwing less than 1 interception per 200 passes. That's an absurdly low number! Here's the single-season leaderboard in INT% from PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...gle_season.htm . Note how many of the top seasons are active/recent.

[Rygar64]

Interceptions are extremely down. During Reed's career (2002-2013), there were 6127 interceptions in 6144 games (0.997/game). The numbers were even higher during Woodson's career.

2013 (0.98) was the last season with more than 0.90 INTs/game, with a new low of 0.80 in 2019. This dropoff in INT/game is accompanied by an increase in ATT/game, so INT/ATT is dropping even faster!

What we can do is adjust for era (filmstudy showed me how to do this). When adjusted, we find that Marcus Peters (0.50) has more adjusted INTs per game than any other player, including Ed Reed (0.47). Other active players near the top of the leaderboard include Kevin Byard (0.38), Richard Sherman (0.36), and Kyle Fuller (0.32). You can see the full list (and supporting data) here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

In short, I'd say the NFL is changing, and that players (QBs) are getting better. Players (e.g. Rodgers, Brady) are throwing less than 1 interception per 200 passes. That's an absurdly low number! Here's the single-season leaderboard in INT% from PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...gle_season.htm . Note how many of the top seasons are active/recent.

Are teams and QBs getting better because there are no more Ed Reeds or are there no more Ed Reeds because QBs are getting better? I think it's the former. How many times have we watched just Ravens games where guys butterfinger or misplay surefire interceptions? There seems to be a real lack of ball-hawk type players in defensive backfields the past 5 or 6 years. Marcus Peters is one of the outliers.

[The Excellector]

Defenses aren’t the same either. From the 2000s’ to the 10s and through the 10s to now.

[Julius486]

I wonder if scheme could account for the drop-off; i.e, are more offenses running safer/easier passing offenses?

[organizedchaos21]

Are teams and QBs getting better because there are no more Ed Reeds or are there no more Ed Reeds because QBs are getting better? I think it's the former. How many times have we watched just Ravens games where guys butterfinger or misplay surefire interceptions? There seems to be a real lack of ball-hawk type players in defensive backfields the past 5 or 6 years. Marcus Peters is one of the outliers.

Defenses aren’t the same either. From the 2000s’ to the 10s and through the 10s to now.

I wonder if scheme could account for the drop-off; i.e, are more offenses running safer/easier passing offenses?

I suspect that there is no one right answer. Rather, all of these things (and others) contribute to the drop-off. It's also nothing new. I unfortunately don't have the image handy (Google probably has something sufficient if you're interested), but INTs/game and INTs/ATT have both declined pretty steadily since at least 1945.

[WNCRavensFan]

Interceptions are extremely down. During Reed's career (2002-2013), there were 6127 interceptions in 6144 games (0.997/game). The numbers were even higher during Woodson's career.

2013 (0.98) was the last season with more than 0.90 INTs/game, with a new low of 0.80 in 2019. This dropoff in INT/game is accompanied by an increase in ATT/game, so INT/ATT is dropping even faster!

What we can do is adjust for era (filmstudy showed me how to do this). When adjusted, we find that Marcus Peters (0.50) has more adjusted INTs per game than any other player, including Ed Reed (0.47). Other active players near the top of the leaderboard include Kevin Byard (0.38), Richard Sherman (0.36), and Kyle Fuller (0.32). You can see the full list (and supporting data) here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

In short, I'd say the NFL is changing, and that players (QBs) are getting better. Players (e.g. Rodgers, Brady) are throwing less than 1 interception per 200 passes. That's an absurdly low number! Here's the single-season leaderboard in INT% from PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.c...gle_season.htm . Note how many of the top seasons are active/recent.

Good stuff OC.

I think it's mostly the NFL changing. Offenses are getting more and more refined as the years go on; defenses have to react to that. So it's design and implementation of offense, coupled with ever increasing rules advantages, that are doing it.

Why do I emphasize implementation? Cameras, phones, special headsets, more advanced analysis.... communication is so important in preparation and on the field. And it's never been better. I believe that helps offenses more than defenses.