Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

[Waywatcher]

I've been on a few times. Him and I could talk OL play for hours on end.

Oh, that's right! Now I remember catching a few episodes with you and Ken, Cole.

[Jam31]

You did a good job re: Boykin too. Well done both of you.

Hear! Hear! Great job, gents.

[QtR Nevermore]

Heard you on FIlmstudy ed. You were great. It inspired me to try my target share guesses based on the unlikely prospect of a 16 game season.
I'm assuming there will be more passing so I'm looking at 510 targets.

Hollywood - 135 - This feels conservative. It could well be higher. Lamar likes to target players he trusts and he really trusts Hollywood.
Andrews - 60 - I don't see the diabetic Andrews playing a full compliment of games in the time of Covid, he has to be careful.
Snead - 45 - I think Lamar sees him as reliable
Boyle - 45 - Same again for Boyle. He'll be out there a lot.
Rookie WR1 - 45 - Don't know whether it will be Duvernay or Proche but I'm betting one of the rookies builds some chemistry with Lamar.
TE 3 - 45 - Breeland /Wolf will get a bigger role if Andrews has to miss time and Boyle isn't primarily a receiver.
Boykin - 35 - Not sure Lamar trusts him based on last year so I'm not predicting a huge jump in targets.
Ingram - 25 - Number of RB targets increases but gets shared more widely
Dobbins - 25
Justice - 15
Rookie WR2 - 14 - Whichever one of Duvernay/Proche doesn't build such good chemisty gets very few targets
Ricard - 13
Gus - 8

I talked about Lamar's trust too much but, based on last year, I think it's a big factor. He showed that sometimes , if his preferred targets weren't open, he'd rather make something happen himself or move about til they uncover rather than target someone else, even if they were open.

[JimZipCode]

I talked about Lamar's trust too much but, based on last year, I think it's a big factor. He showed that sometimes , if his preferred targets weren't open, he'd rather make something happen himself or move about til they uncover rather than target someone else, even if they were open.

Lamar said he's working on "Tom Brady stuff" this offseason. Hopefully that includes these things.

[Jfoh]

This year I think Andrews and Hollywood will get 80-90 targets on the low end. Call
It 100 each. Boyle will get 35-45 along with whichever rookie TE makes the team wHo should get 15-20. Boykin is my wild card. If he starts fast he should get 40-50 targets. The other two rookies will split 50-60 between them. We never seem to work rookies into major rolls. The back field should split 50-60 targets. That’s 400 targets. If they shift more towards a passing attack because they just can that number could go up 100-125 targets. I just don’t see them becoming a pass first team at this point. O line is great at run blocking. They move the ball better on the ground than lost team can by passing.

[houstonravensfan]

I haven't seen any love here for Proche. I'm hoping he becomes our PR, then grows into a solid slot receiver. Has some tools and sneaky speed.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

I haven't seen any love here for Proche. I'm hoping he becomes our PR, then grows into a solid slot receiver. Has some tools and sneaky speed.

He returned both kicks and punts at SMU. It's a great way for hi mto get active on gameday and try and get soem snaps.

He needs work, but I think he's got more upside than some of our previous late rounder WRs

[edromeo]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to QtR Nevermore again.

Heard you on FIlmstudy ed. You were great. It inspired me to try my target share guesses based on the unlikely prospect of a 16 game season.
I'm assuming there will be more passing so I'm looking at 510 targets.

Thanks man.

re: unlikely full 16 game season: I'm maintaining my suspension of disbelief.

Hollywood - 135 - This feels conservative. It could well be higher. Lamar likes to target players he trusts and he really trusts Hollywood.
Andrews - 60 - I don't see the diabetic Andrews playing a full compliment of games in the time of Covid, he has to be careful.
Snead - 45 - I think Lamar sees him as reliable
Boyle - 45 - Same again for Boyle. He'll be out there a lot.

Great point about Andrews, didn't even think of that. Andrews medical advice could have a huge impact on the passing game. For my money Andrews is the focal point of the passing game and not having him changes everything.

Rookie WR1 - 45 - Don't know whether it will be Duvernay or Proche but I'm betting one of the rookies builds some chemistry with Lamar.
TE 3 - 45 - Breeland /Wolf will get a bigger role if Andrews has to miss time and Boyle isn't primarily a receiver.
Boykin - 35 - Not sure Lamar trusts him based on last year so I'm not predicting a huge jump in targets.

I have a hard time seeing a rookie surpass Miles in terms of targets, especially this off season when rookies are at a disadvantage in learning the offense.
Also, Greg has specifically mentioned Miles have a larger role.

I talked about Lamar's trust too much but, based on last year, I think it's a big factor. He showed that sometimes , if his preferred targets weren't open, he'd rather make something happen himself or move about til they uncover rather than target someone else, even if they were open.

I agree that Lamar's level of trust is a factor but I disagree with how that trust factor plays out. I don't think Lamar is willfully turning down open receivers.

[QtR Nevermore]

I have a hard time seeing a rookie surpass Miles in terms of targets, especially this off season when rookies are at a disadvantage in learning the offense.

Rookie WRs have been having instant success all round the league the last few years. Good as he was, even Hollywood was only 5th among rookie WRs in targets last year so I'm being optimistic that either Duvernay or Proche turns out to be a genuinely effective receiver.

In 2018 Andrews didn't have the chance to work with Lamar much but Lamar targeted him all the time because he could get open. It might not happen with either rookie but I don't think it's crazily optimistic.

[edromeo]

Rookie WRs have been having instant success all round the league the last few years. Good as he was, even Hollywood was only 5th among rookie WRs in targets last year so I'm being optimistic that either Duvernay or Proche turns out to be a genuinely effective receiver.

In 2018 Andrews didn't have the chance to work with Lamar much but Lamar targeted him all the time because he could get open. It might not happen with either rookie but I don't think it's crazily optimistic.

Right. I'm not saying its crazy.
I think DuVernay is a stud. But this offseason puts the rookies at greater disadvantage then the previous offseasons you refer to above. It would be awesome if a rookie earns 45 targets. I just think its unlikely that a rookie WR is going to come in and get more targets then Boykin. Especially considering DeCosta and Roman both mentioned Boykin making a jump and putting more on his plate.

[JimZipCode]

Rookie WR1 - 45 - Don't know whether it will be Duvernay or Proche but I'm betting one of the rookies builds some chemistry with Lamar.
...
Boykin - 35 - Not sure Lamar trusts him based on last year so I'm not predicting a huge jump in targets.

Right. I'm not saying its crazy.
I think DuVernay is a stud. But this offseason puts the rookies at greater disadvantage then the previous offseasons you refer to above. .... I just think its unlikely that a rookie WR is going to come in and get more targets then Boykin. Especially considering DeCosta and Roman both mentioned Boykin making a jump and putting more on his plate.

Ed is a super nice guy. I'll go ahead and say it: it's crazy to think that Duvernay is going to come in and earn more targets than Boykin this season (absent injury).

It would be one thing if Boykin had pulled a Perriman: under-producing on a per-target basis, tipping balls to defenders etc. But Boykin's per-target production was very good (7th-best in Ravens history among WRs getting 15+ targets). Duvernay, or any other rookie, is going to have a big challenge just to be as productive on a per-opportunity basis as Boykin was last year.

Duvernay doesn't offer anything athletically over Boykin:

Player	40	Vert	Broad	3cone	20shuttle
Duvernay	4.39	35.5	123.0	7.13	4.20
Boykin	4.42	43.5	140.0	6.77	4.07

Boykin is quicker (COD) & more explosive across the board. Duvernay's only "win" here is in straight-line speed, and a 3/100-of-a-second difference is nothing. Imperceptible in-game.

One might think there's an opportunity for a player to distinguish himself vs Boykin in the area of route-running. But that's Duvernay's biggest weakness as a prospect, his stiff route-running. I don't think he's going to "win" over Boykin here.

I'm not trying to say that there are NO elements where Duvernay the prospect is/was ahead of Boykin the prospect. I see three main things:

Hands
A big one, right? Duverny might have perfect hands. But Boykin has excellent hands. Perfect > excellent, but the margin is thin. This isn't going to be enough of an edge for Duvernay all by itself.

Toughness after catch
Duvernay is a tough, violent motherfucker after the catch. We're going to love this aspect of his game. Has a little bit of Steve Smith to him. Boykin doesn't have that same crash-thru-a-wall quality. On the other hand, Boykin is strong & fast & fluid after the catch. More "smooth" than "tough", stylistically. I expect Duvernay will get some "gadget" use: screens & toss sweeps & wheels etc. Boykin's not going to get those kinds of targets, he'll (probably) strictly play outside.

Decisiveness
Not sure this is the right word; I might be referring to "polish" here. Duvernay caught a hundred more passes in college than Boykin did. We saw some examples from this past season where Boykin seemed to hesitate on a route, play a little unsure. Duvernay is going to arrive with more command of what he's supposed to do on a route, than Boykin arrived with.
(But probably not more than what Boykin arrives in camp this season with.

The biggest hurdle for Duvernay getting more targets than Boykin this season, is playing time. Boykin is the clear starter at the X receiver position. He is basically unchallenged on the roster. The only other pure Xs we have are Jaleel Scott & Antoine Wesley. Boykin already beat out those guys LAST year. Maybe Chris Moore? Every other WR on the roster is below 6 feet. This is the most unambiguous argument that I can see, for Boykin getting a high target volume. DeCosta & Harbs & Roman all talked about Boykin having a big role, and then the personnel moves backed it up: they brought in no challenger at his position.

Duvernay is behind Marquise & Snead at the Y/Z positions. Ultimately I see Duvernay & Marquise on the field at the same time, as slot-flanker hybrids. Motioning inside or outside of each other, creating a mismatch for Lamar to capitalize on. But if we're in 12 personnel, Duvernay's not going to be on the field. It's going to be Marquise & Boykin. And we run 12 more than all but two other teams in the league. Duvernay will get on the field in 11 formations (3WR); and we were bottom five in the league last year using those groupings.

I don't see Duvernay vaulting ahead of Marquise & Snead this year. For one thing, I have Marquise leading the team in targets (and top ~20 in the league), with around 120 or so. Marquise is going to be a MONSTER this year. And Snead has earned a lot of trust from Lamar & Roman & Harbs. Reliable possession receiver, third on the team in targets last year, extremely professional guy and a high-effort player. Snead is also a great blocker. Check him out here on the right edge of the frame, taking out the safety on an Ingram TD:

Duvernay's not going to take snaps from Marquise & Snead. Certainly not right out of training camp. Duvernay wil have a role this year; but it's not going to be anywhere near enough to give him more targets than Boykin. (Again, absent injury.)

---

BTW, I love Duvernay as a draft pick. LOVED the pick. Perfect fit with us. We needed a slot-flanker hybrid to pair with Marquise and juice up our 3WR formations. I think he's the straw that breaks the defense's back.

I don't think we'll really going to start to see the value this season. I think 2021 and on, after Ingram and Snead are gone, is when the acquisition will really start to shine. We'll come out in 11 personnel with these guys on the field:

JK Dobbins
Mandrews
Boykin
Marquise
Duvernay

Defenses, pick your poison. That's a pinball machine. We won't even need to scheme that shit. If the D spreads out to cover the pass-catchers, run Dobbins up their ass. If they bunch up to control the run, hit the open man for a big gain. The plays call themselves.

But that's next year. This year, I think Duvernay will mainly contribute at the margins.

• 4 & 5 verts

We've seen the Ravens run some 4+ verts with Lamar. I think last season we had Andrews and Hayden Hurst as two of the verticals on those plays. With Thor gone, I think Duvernay comes on the field for those. His speed, and his toughness at the catch point, would make him a great asset in those plays. Hell, with his RB skills, he could even be great as the short guy on a 4-verts-plus-checkdown play. Sometimes him, sometimes Marquise, sometimes Justice Hill.

• Gadget

Right away Duvernay arrives as a good hybrid James White - Percy Harvin type of player. He should thrive on those types of plays; it would be an easy way get him some involvement early. A lot of red zone work in this role, too.

But even here, the path to snaps & targets is not easy. Marquise is going to get some jet sweeps and some tunnel screens. Justice Hill is going to get some receiving-back snaps, including plays where he lines up in the backfield and motions out wide. Probably Duvernay is behind Justice Hill on the "gadget back" depth chart. Hill got some burn in the red zone last year; he might be solidifying a spot.

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So, to recap:

• Devin Duvernay has a bright future in the NFL. I think he'll be a great asset. The speedy straw that breaks the defense's back.

(Tough motherfucker too.)

• This year there is no role, where he is the clear "guy" in the offense.

• At Flanker (Z), Duvernay is well behind Marquise.

• At slot (Y), Duvernay is a little behind Snead. Behind Andrews too, considering how much we play 2 TE sets.

• At "gadget" / red zone hybrid WR/RB, Duvernay is behind Justice Hill, and somewhat Marquise.

• Boykin is not behind anybody. He's the clear starter at the X receiver position, with no real competition, and with Harbs & Roman both saying the Ravens are going to load him up.

I think it's overwhelmingly likely that Boykin gets far more targets this season than Duvernay does. I think at least 35 more; maybe 50 more.

I'll go farther: barring injury, I expect that every season they're both on the Ravens roster, Boykin will get significantly more targets than Duvernay.

[JimZipCode]

Ways I could be wrong

Continuing from above; I see two main ways that I could be way off on this.

The first is the thing that you (Qt) said, that Lamar doesn't trust Boykin.

The second is, Duvernay is MUCH better than I think he is. He turns out to be a Steve Smith clone, with speed and toughness at the catch point. A junkyard dog mentality. He wins a role as an outside receiver, basically taking Boykin's job. It'll be Marquise & Duvernay split out wide, when we're in 2 TE formations.

Can't rule out either one of those things. They're intangible.

I see arguments for both sides on the trust thing. I go in circles. There's plays on tape where Boykin is open (for a touchdown!), and Marquise doesn't go to him. On the other hand, Boykin probably wasn't in the progression, and the Ravens got first-downs on those plays. (At least one was a 3rd-down play.) There's plays on tape where Lamar finds Boykin late, off of scramble drill and extending plays; that's evidence FOR trust, not against it. Lamar said he's working on "Tom Brady stuff" this offseason. I assume that's decision-making and field-reading and finding the open man. That's an argument for Lamar showing more trust in Boykin going forward.

Ultimately you're right. If Lamar doesn't trust Boykin and won't really go to him, then Boykin isn't going to do anything for us, no matter how great a prospect he seems to be.

As for the second – well, my table of athletic traits above is completely irrelevant on this. If it's one of those "size of the fight in the dog" kind of thing, then we just won't know until everyone gets on the field and the competition heats up. But I'll note that Steve Smith was much more of a deep threat in college (20 yards per catch) than Duvernay was. And it took Smith a few years to get established as a receiver in the NFL. His rookie season he only got 20 targets (less than Boykin!). Smith began his career as a kick returner (All-Pro as a rookie).

So even if Duvernay turns out to be Steve Smith, that's not an argument for him getting a lot of targets as a rookie. He has to establish himself.