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  1. #1
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    Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Another discussion thread; this time on the allocation of passing game targets and where do you want to see the passing game go?

    Last years target allocation:

    Mask Andrews - 98
    Marquise Brown - 71
    Hayden Hurst - 39
    Willie Snead - 46
    Nick Boyle - 43
    Seth Roberts - 35
    Mark Ingram - 29
    Miles Boykin - 22
    Justice Hill - 15
    Patrick Ricard - 11
    Gus Edwards - 7

    Questions: (1) How would you like the targets to be distributed?

    (2) (If different) How do you think/expect them to dole out targets?




    Where do you want to see the passing game go?

    I would be willing to sacrifice a little bit of passing game efficiency and comp% in an effort to attack downfield more often.

    I would like to see the offense make a concerted effort in 2 areas:

    (1) - Yards Per Attempt - I would like to see this offense become more aggressive in terms of throwing downfield. We have one of the best QBs in the league and thee best running games in the league. We have assembled a WRs corps that has three WRs that are 4.41 or faster and one of the faster tight-ends in the league. I would like to take advantage of the speed in the passing game and focus more on attacking downfield. A key metric to watch for here is Yards Per Attempt. I would like to be near the top of the league in terms of YPA.

    (2) - Play-action - Lamar has always been an above average play-action passer, but whatever reason (last year) Lamar wasn't up to his standard in terms of specifically of intermediate play-action passing:
    https://twitter.com/QBDataMine/statu...820567552?s=20

    His accuracy was 56.7% on playaction and despite the fact that he did lead the league in TD passes he was near league bottom in terms of accuracy on playaction.
    For the bulk of the onus here is on play-design. Offensive Coordinator should have an advantage when it comes to scheming people open on play-action and the Ravens staff imho bare the burden of improvement here.

    What say you?

    (1) How would you like the targets to be distributed?
    --(1a) (If different) How do you think/expect them to dole out targets?

    (2) Where do you want to see the passing game go?





  2. #2
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    I don't have any over-arching theories, just a bunch of random disconnected thoughts.

    Based on the Instagram-type stuff we've seen this offseason, I expect Marquise will lead the team in targets; and with a decently high number, like 120 or 125. That would have put him among the top 20 in the league last season.

    I expect Lamar to pass a little more and rush a little less. Maybe 50-75 fewer rushing attempts? But not all of those "lost" rush attempts will turn into passes. Some will be handoffs to Dobbins, whom I think we'll use a little more than we did our #2 back last year (Gus).

    I dunno what's going to happen with Mandrews. It's tough to imagine his targets going UP: he was already top 5 in the league at his position, and Marquise & Boykin & Duvernay are going to eat into his marget share. But you can make the case that his targets aren't likely to go down either; his snap count was low last year, and his main competition at his position (for targets) is gone.



    Maybe one way to look at it is by position group market share. Last year Lamar spread his targets around this way:

    WRs: 42.9%
    TEs: 42.5%
    RBs: 14.6%
    (counting Ricard as a RB)

    Kansas City, which also has a decent pass-catching TE, had their WRs up around 52%. I bet the Ravens are looking to increase their WR market share this season, the 45-50% range.

    So. If the Ravens up their passing attempts by around 40 to 50, that puts us in the 480 to 490 range for the season. Applying those market share targets:

    For WRs:
    52% of 480 = 50% of 500 = 250. So let's say approx 250 targets for WRs. Last year they got about 180, so this is a big increase.

    For TEs:
    What happens to Hayden Hurst's 39 targets? Do they go out of the TE group entirely (with maybe Breeland picking up a couple)? Do they all go to Andrews? Comparing to the Chiefs again: Kelce got 24% of their targets, while Andrews got 23% of ours. So let's say that Andrews keeps his target share, but the rest of the TE group loses Hurst's share. So about 110 to 115 targets to Mandrews, and another ~40 to Boyle & Breeland (or whoever is TE3).

    For RBs:
    The arithmetic above leaves about 100 targets for RBs; around 20% or a little more. That's very Chiefs-like: they threw to RBs 19.7% last year. We went to RBs less, about 15% of the time. Ed, you & I wanted them to go to RBs more; so maybe this has all been an exercise in wishful thinking. On the other hand: without verifying, my impression is the Ravens started to use RBs in the passing game a little more over the last ~third of the season. And Dobbins will develop into a goddam weapon in the pass game. So some increased usage of RBs in the passing game seems to be in the offing, even if maybe not to Andy Reid levels.


    Taking the above scattered thoughts & ideas, and applying some hand-waving and fudging, I get this:

    Targs Player Posn
    120 Marquise WR
    110 Andrews TE
    60 Boykin WR
    35 Boyle TE
    35 Ingram RB
    30 Snead WR
    25 Duvernay WR
    20 Dobbins RB
    20 Hill RB
    15 Other WR WR
    15 Gus/Ricard RB
    5 Other TE TE
    490 Total

    Broken out by position:

    Targs Player Targs Player Targs Player
    120 Marquise 110 Andrews 35 Ingram
    60 Boykin 35 Boyle 20 Dobbins
    30 Snead 5 Other TE 20 Hill
    25 Duvernay 15 Gus/Ricard
    15 Other WR
    250 51.0% 150 30.6% 90 18.4%

    That represents my wild-assed guess about what might happen.


    It's not necessarily my optimum idea of what should happen. For starters I'd take 20 targets from Andrews and give them to Boykin. For another, maybe Hill grabs a role as "3rd down back" and takes ~5 targets from each of Ingram & Dobbins. But overall I think it's a reasonable guess.
    Last edited by JimZipCode; 06-11-2020 at 09:50 AM.





  3. #3

    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    A couple thoughs/wishes here. I don't know if an article exists on it/if any of the more industrious posters have looked into this, but what was with the (relative) struggles we had using the play action? Think it would be interesting if someone could go through it and note whether the receivers have separation on the plays, if Lamar was just missing throws for whatever reason, etc. I know Ken from Filmstudy has mentioned that one of the areas he wants Lamar to get better at is being able to restablish the field when turning his back on a play action.

    Also wondering if the stats bare out the feeling I (and others) have about the Ravens not running many screen plays. Is there a schematic or personnel related reason as to why we don't run more screen plays? That seems like it could be a good thing to incorporate more of going forward.

    More directly related to the OP; I'm expecting huge things from Hollywood, but he seems to be our little shared secret, and I don't think many people within Charm City will be much surprised. I'm ambivalent about Boykin; probably lean more towards pessimism. I think a darkhorse to contribute a lot, to the extent of being the WR2, is Proche. Call it a hunch, and also the work he seems to be putting in in the offseason, both with RG3 and Lamar. His hands really are incredible, and he was a reliable producer in college. Not really sure what to expect from Duvernay; hopefully a couple splash plays/TD's like Boykin had his rookie year, but not overall huge numbers/targets. Expect Hollywood/Andrews to be 1 and 2 in passing targets; the rest is up in the air. Really hopeful we'll get our running backs more involved in the passing game; Ingram is AWESOME there, Hill has pop, and Dobbins is a gifted runner with the ball in his hands.





  4. #4
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by Julius486 View Post
    A couple thoughs/wishes here. I don't know if an article exists on it/if any of the more industrious posters have looked into this, but what was with the (relative) struggles we had using the play action? Think it would be interesting if someone could go through it and note whether the receivers have separation on the plays, if Lamar was just missing throws for whatever reason, etc. I know Ken from Filmstudy has mentioned that one of the areas he wants Lamar to get better at is being able to restablish the field when turning his back on a play action.
    It was briefly mentioned in the another thread linked below. The comment references Cian Fahey's twitter posts and he isolates specific down/distance scenario on film. Well worth a viewing. I would be interested in your take away after watching.

    I expected to see Lamar missing a bunch of throws; I didn't expect the coverage to be tight. Which is quite surprising since play-action typically helps receivers uncover but for whatever reason the receivers were covered quite well despite the play-action.

    Lamar was a very good play-action passer so i think the passing game/offense really misses out in this area.
    My speculation is whether or not the offense has some hidden tell that alerts/tips defenses off to either when a play-action pass is coming or which routes to expect if there is play-action.

    2 things to note though, Fahey isolates specifically on intermediate play-action as the area where Lamar's comp% was low also, Lamar was still tied for 1st in TD passes thrown on play-action overall.


    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    QB Date Mine / Cian Fahey isolates: https://twitter.com/QBDataMine/statu...01245820567552

    Watching the vid is very important to giving this stat context.
    Dudes have to be open; watching the vid my main take away was *often* how the receivers were covered.
    Interesting note:
    Kirk Cousins threw 13 touchdowns off of play action last year, tying Lamar Jackson for the most in the league.



    Also wondering if the stats bare out the feeling I (and others) have about the Ravens not running many screen plays. Is there a schematic or personnel related reason as to why we don't run more screen plays? That seems like it could be a good thing to incorporate more of going forward.
    Don't know about the exact numbers for screen usage off hand. But, I know it lower then most teams.
    The numbers might be somewhere in the thread linked below, at the very least there are some gifs of the screens we did run:
    https://forum.russellstreetreport.co...63#post1848363

    I don't think personnel holds Roman back from calling more screens. I just think he doesn't like them. I recall reading somewhere that Roman consider them to be low yield/efficiency plays....but i may be misapplying this notion to Roman just based on his aversion to them.

    I'm all about screen game despite the fact that I agree they are low yield/ and can be low efficiency plays. BUT screens are easy passes that help the QB get in rhythm, they are virtually guaranteed touches for which every skill position player is the receiver and they can tire out a defense, especially DL that have to run and chase.
    Last edited by edromeo; 06-11-2020 at 04:09 PM.





  5. #5
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by Julius486 View Post
    ...
    More directly related to the OP; I'm expecting huge things from Hollywood, but he seems to be our little shared secret, and I don't think many people within Charm City will be much surprised. I'm ambivalent about Boykin; probably lean more towards pessimism. I think a darkhorse to contribute a lot, to the extent of being the WR2, is Proche. Call it a hunch, and also the work he seems to be putting in in the offseason, both with RG3 and Lamar. His hands really are incredible, and he was a reliable producer in college. Not really sure what to expect from Duvernay; hopefully a couple splash plays/TD's like Boykin had his rookie year, but not overall huge numbers/targets. Expect Hollywood/Andrews to be 1 and 2 in passing targets; the rest is up in the air. Really hopeful we'll get our running backs more involved in the passing game; Ingram is AWESOME there, Hill has pop, and Dobbins is a gifted runner with the ball in his hands.
    From your finger tips to Roman's playsheet as far as getting the RBs involved.

    I worry about Proche because of his lack of speed but DuVernay checks all the boxes you mention for Proche and he's a lot faster.





  6. #6
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    ...

    Taking the above scattered thoughts & ideas, and applying some hand-waving and fudging, I get this:

    Targs Player Posn
    120 Marquise WR
    110 Andrews TE
    60 Boykin WR
    35 Boyle TE
    35 Ingram RB
    30 Snead WR
    25 Duvernay WR
    20 Dobbins RB
    20 Hill RB
    15 Other WR WR
    15 Gus/Ricard RB
    5 Other TE TE
    490 Total

    Broken out by position:

    Targs Player Targs Player Targs Player
    120 Marquise 110 Andrews 35 Ingram
    60 Boykin 35 Boyle 20 Dobbins
    30 Snead 5 Other TE 20 Hill
    25 Duvernay 15 Gus/Ricard
    15 Other WR
    250 51.0% 150 30.6% 90 18.4%

    That represents my wild-assed guess about what might happen.


    It's not necessarily my optimum idea of what should happen. For starters I'd take 20 targets from Andrews and give them to Boykin. For another, maybe Hill grabs a role as "3rd down back" and takes ~5 targets from each of Ingram & Dobbins. But overall I think it's a reasonable guess.
    You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to JimZipCode again.





  7. #7
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    I don't have any over-arching theories, just a bunch of random disconnected thoughts.

    Based on the Instagram-type stuff we've seen this offseason, I expect Marquise will lead the team in targets; and with a decently high number, like 120 or 125. That would have put him among the top 20 in the league last season.

    I expect Lamar to pass a little more and rush a little less. Maybe 50-75 fewer rushing attempts? But not all of those "lost" rush attempts will turn into passes. Some will be handoffs to Dobbins, whom I think we'll use a little more than we did our #2 back last year (Gus).

    I dunno what's going to happen with Mandrews. It's tough to imagine his targets going UP: he was already top 5 in the league at his position, and Marquise & Boykin & Duvernay are going to eat into his marget share. But you can make the case that his targets aren't likely to go down either; his snap count was low last year, and his main competition at his position (for targets) is gone.



    Maybe one way to look at it is by position group market share. Last year Lamar spread his targets around this way:

    WRs: 42.9%
    TEs: 42.5%
    RBs: 14.6%
    (counting Ricard as a RB)

    Kansas City, which also has a decent pass-catching TE, had their WRs up around 52%. I bet the Ravens are looking to increase their WR market share this season, the 45-50% range.

    So. If the Ravens up their passing attempts by around 40 to 50, that puts us in the 480 to 490 range for the season. Applying those market share targets:

    For WRs:
    52% of 480 = 50% of 500 = 250. So let's say approx 250 targets for WRs. Last year they got about 180, so this is a big increase.

    For TEs:
    What happens to Hayden Hurst's 39 targets? Do they go out of the TE group entirely (with maybe Breeland picking up a couple)? Do they all go to Andrews? Comparing to the Chiefs again: Kelce got 24% of their targets, while Andrews got 23% of ours. So let's say that Andrews keeps his target share, but the rest of the TE group loses Hurst's share. So about 110 to 115 targets to Mandrews, and another ~40 to Boyle & Breeland (or whoever is TE3).

    For RBs:
    The arithmetic above leaves about 100 targets for RBs; around 20% or a little more. That's very Chiefs-like: they threw to RBs 19.7% last year. We went to RBs less, about 15% of the time. Ed, you & I wanted them to go to RBs more; so maybe this has all been an exercise in wishful thinking. On the other hand: without verifying, my impression is the Ravens started to use RBs in the passing game a little more over the last ~third of the season. And Dobbins will develop into a goddam weapon in the pass game. So some increased usage of RBs in the passing game seems to be in the offing, even if maybe not to Andy Reid levels.


    Taking the above scattered thoughts & ideas, and applying some hand-waving and fudging, I get this:

    Targs Player Posn
    120 Marquise WR
    110 Andrews TE
    60 Boykin WR
    35 Boyle TE
    35 Ingram RB
    30 Snead WR
    25 Duvernay WR
    20 Dobbins RB
    20 Hill RB
    15 Other WR WR
    15 Gus/Ricard RB
    5 Other TE TE
    490 Total

    Broken out by position:

    Targs Player Targs Player Targs Player
    120 Marquise 110 Andrews 35 Ingram
    60 Boykin 35 Boyle 20 Dobbins
    30 Snead 5 Other TE 20 Hill
    25 Duvernay 15 Gus/Ricard
    15 Other WR
    250 51.0% 150 30.6% 90 18.4%

    That represents my wild-assed guess about what might happen.


    It's not necessarily my optimum idea of what should happen. For starters I'd take 20 targets from Andrews and give them to Boykin. For another, maybe Hill grabs a role as "3rd down back" and takes ~5 targets from each of Ingram & Dobbins. But overall I think it's a reasonable guess.
    This is certainly what I want to see happen.

    I think you could take 10ish from Brown and give them to Boyle though. I expect Boyle to get some more looks as he'll absorb Hurst's snaps.

    If we go in this direction I'll be very please about the progression from year 2 into year 3 (or year 1 into year 2 of implementing this playbook I should say)
    "Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
    - Ray Lewis

    https://www.baltimoreravens.com/author/cole-jackson

    Twitter: @ColeJacksonFB





  8. #8
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    https://www.nfl.com/news/michael-tho...catchers-of-19

    Interesting stats on George Kittle usage

    Didn't want to lose this link either:
    https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...ckson-and-more
    Last edited by edromeo; 06-11-2020 at 11:42 PM.





  9. #9
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    I don't have any over-arching theories, just a bunch of random disconnected thoughts.

    Based on the Instagram-type stuff we've seen this offseason, I expect Marquise will lead the team in targets; and with a decently high number, like 120 or 125. That would have put him among the top 20 in the league last season.

    I expect Lamar to pass a little more and rush a little less. Maybe 50-75 fewer rushing attempts? But not all of those "lost" rush attempts will turn into passes. Some will be handoffs to Dobbins, whom I think we'll use a little more than we did our #2 back last year (Gus).

    I dunno what's going to happen with Mandrews. It's tough to imagine his targets going UP: he was already top 5 in the league at his position, and Marquise & Boykin & Duvernay are going to eat into his marget share. But you can make the case that his targets aren't likely to go down either; his snap count was low last year, and his main competition at his position (for targets) is gone.
    I'm looking for Andrews to get 120+ targets. He's the best receiver on the team currently and one of the best TEs in the league. He has 3.33 yards per route run! So we gotta keep feeding that beast.

    I want Hollywood to get a ton of targets also....but I still worry about his frame. If get over of my view of Hollywood as Ferrari then I would want to see him get 100+ maybe even more but I think 80-90 targets is more prudent.......I would want to see another WR Boykin or DuVernay earn a decent chunk of targets.....60+ ?

    Gotta take yet another pass at this, lol
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  10. #10
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  11. #11
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  12. #12
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    Re: Ravens Offense 2020: Targets and Passing Game

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    I'm looking for Andrews to get 120+ targets. He's the best receiver on the team currently and one of the best TEs in the league. He has 3.33 yards per route run! So we gotta keep feeding that beast.

    I want Hollywood to get a ton of targets also....but I still worry about his frame. If get over of my view of Hollywood as Ferrari then I would want to see him get 100+ maybe even more but I think 80-90 targets is more prudent.......I would want to see another WR Boykin or DuVernay earn a decent chunk of targets.....60+ ?

    Gotta take yet another pass at this, lol
    The key factor is going to be having a 3rd reliable guy emerge.

    Teams really keyed in on Andrews and Brown and the rest of the team struggled at times.

    I think the beauty is if you think about the skillsets brought by Boykin and Duv.

    Duv offers another seam option from the slot as well as a quick pass guy. Boykin offers some deep passing for sure, but some of his best palys that I have seen are quick underneath passes.

    Those "easy wins" are going to be huge for beating a defense that focuses in on Brown and Andrews. Combine that with Lamar's ability to manipulate LBs and it could become the true offense I think Roman is envisioning. Death by a thousand cuts across a few drives and then boom a knockout punch.
    "Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
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