Does Biden really have a chance? I mean.... do you REALLY believe that?

[DitkasSausage]

Five Thirty Eight shows Trump losing in a virtual landslide: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

My question is... who actually believes that this election will even be close? Right now, in special elections, you have a total sweep by Republicans... and not in conservative states AT ALL! A republican won a house seat in CA that had been held by Dems for 30 years. The Bronx just had to illegally get rid of AOC's GOP-competition because she was polling better... IN THE BRONX! Virginia just lost their State House which hasn't been done in a LOOOONG time. Republicans are sweeping every single election that has popped up.

My question is... are pollsters relevant when they are clearly this wrong? Five Thirty Eight gave Hillary a 88% chance of Victory in the summer of 2016... 5 months before the election. That is, by a pollsters definition, a certainty.

Democrats tout Five Thirty Eight as "Hands down the most scientifically accurate polls out there! Silver is a GENIUS!"... clearly he is not. His polls were off in 2016 across every election, by nearly 20 points.

I forgot who I bet that Trump would win 18% of the black vote on here... I believe I bet them $20? We bet this back in January, and I cannot remember the details so shout them out! How about this... right now, from just what I'm hearing... I'm willing to go to $100... I'm willing to bet whatever you are comfortable with at this point.

[cjandrze]

Five Thirty Eight shows Trump losing in a virtual landslide: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

My question is... who actually believes that this election will even be close? Right now, in special elections, you have a total sweep by Republicans... and not in conservative states AT ALL! A republican won a house seat in CA that had been held by Dems for 30 years. The Bronx just had to illegally get rid of AOC's GOP-competition because she was polling better... IN THE BRONX! Virginia just lost their State House which hasn't been done in a LOOOONG time. Republicans are sweeping every single election that has popped up.

My question is... are pollsters relevant when they are clearly this wrong? Five Thirty Eight gave Hillary a 88% chance of Victory in the summer of 2016... 5 months before the election. That is, by a pollsters definition, a certainty.

Democrats tout Five Thirty Eight as "Hands down the most scientifically accurate polls out there! Silver is a GENIUS!"... clearly he is not. His polls were off in 2016 across every election, by nearly 20 points.

I forgot who I bet that Trump would win 18% of the black vote on here... I believe I bet them $20? We bet this back in January, and I cannot remember the details so shout them out! How about this... right now, from just what I'm hearing... I'm willing to go to $100... I'm willing to bet whatever you are comfortable with at this point.

Can't trust any of the polls. Hillary was gonna beat the hell out of Trump too...

[ddr_jr]

Good morning. Let me pose the question differently. What would it say if an old gaffe prone Joe Biden beats Trump?

After all the white noise about fraudulent mail in votes, or the blame of a Dems fabrication of an overblown virus, or how Twitter sensored him by not letting the president make up shit, and after the Freddy Grey type riot occurs by Trump supporters.....after that wears off.....

It will say, a monkey with a microphone could have won. It's not about Biden. It's about anybody BUT Trump. That's how I see it.

As usual, I could be wrong. I could be hoping that's the outcome. I could be living in my own bubble (aren't we all?).

Trump blew up the establishment. Personally, I don't like the world that has formed around it. We are more polarized than ever, people are on edge, more annamous, it is now political if you decide to wear a mask or not in a pandemic. Enough is enough.





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[bandc]

I highly doubt he beats Trump. If there are debates, Trump will eat him alive.

[iceman43]

Nope both candidates suck again. Trump will be elected again. I wish he wouldn't but who else we got

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[ERey]

It's hard to say. We know polls were continually wrong in 2016. That's a fact. So it's hard to believe them now.

If COVID-19 doesn't hit, then Trump walks back into he White House pretty easily based on his booming economy and job market. Any sane person knows the pandemic and resulting economic collapse is not Trump's fault, but it doesn't mean Dems aren't going to do their best to frame this as Trump's fault. What matters is how much the economy recovers by November and how much the public believes it's Trump's fault.

With that said, Joe Biden is about the weakest candidate the Dems could offer up in regards to running the country. Most Liberals I talk to aren't even Joe Biden fans, they just say, "anything to beat Trump". That's no way to nominate a candidate. Joe Biden is the ultimate inside the beltway, good 'ol boys network politician with race and sexual allegations against him. Not to mention his weekly gaffes like "You ain't black". I find it hard to believe the majority of Dems are happy with this guy. But anything to beat Trump.

Right now with COVID-19 a huge issue it's hard to call the race either way. We shall see...

[NCRAVEN]

Biden won't be the nominee. He's going to drop out due to health concerns. Book it.

[jonboy79]

Either Trump wins, or Trump loses, at this point it looks like the Dems can’t win, they can only hope Trump loses. That’s a semantically odd sentence but I believe you all understand my point. The Dems seem eager to only be playing the the anybody bitches Trump cars, because that’s the only person that could vote for Biden: Even his own family can’t think he’s a good candidate. I don’t even think they have a half decent candidate in the wings, if Biden bows out.
They won’t nominate Bernie even though he almost certainly would have won last time and likely would this time. He is at least a candidate that garners votes from actual supporters.


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[BustOfPallas]

The country is pretty polarized. After 4 years of Trump Democrats are motivated and many have said they don't care if the Tara Reid allegations are true. They would vote for a Voldemort if they thought he could beat Trump.

The question is what will those elusive "swing voters" do.

I don't know. When the choices are what they are it's hard to say what will happen. The candidates we produce for president is proof enough that our two party system is not serving us very well.

[NCRAVEN]

MY anecdotal polling says Biden would not win.

Asked a friend who he and his wife HATE Trump, said they wouldn't vote or write in if it's between Biden and Trump.

[BPF2]

I don't really put much into national polling. I think it's flawed because it doesn't factor in the electoral college impact, so just as Hillary won popular by winning NY, LA, CHI, etc, national polling would reflect similar results. I also think you have a large number who are either undecided or won't respond. I think a big part of the miss in 2016 was that so many people that supported Trump did so silently. I told a liberal friend that there was no way I would vote for Hillary, and of course that was interpreted as being a Trump supporter. It's just easier to say, "eh, I don't like either" and you'll actually find you get more acceptance of the situation as opposed to "anyone but Trump". I think a lot of his vote was also a vote against Hillary, not for him.

[steelerhater]

Biden won't be the nominee. He's going to drop out due to health concerns. Book it.

Agreed. I still think Hillary will be on the ticket. She won the popular vote before and the left has to see this virus pandemic as a golden opportunity. Add to it, many states are giving their electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote.