Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs

[edromeo]

This discussion reminds me of the mis-evaluation of Lamar as a prospect.

Draft media/football media/fans ignored stats in favor of their perceptions.
And its the same thing happening now.

Lamar is a better passer then people realize, it is true now and it was true when he was prospect.

I've long said Lamar was a top 5 passer. The stats bare this out.

The notion that his passing stats should be discounted because he has "easier" passing looks is false on 2 levels.
(1) you need to prove that he actually does benefit from easier looks (I've looked into this already but people should look for themselves)
(2) EVEN if he does benefit from easier passing looks-- the "easier" passing looks are created because of his skillset. It would be different if his "easier" passing looks are created external to him the way some QBs are schemed easy throws

If you want to say that right now Mahomes is a better passer then Lamar I would concede but that concession can only be made with the realization that Lamar is a top 5 passer in his own right.

But, playing QB is more then just passing. And the gap between Mahomes as passer is more then made up by Lamar's production in the run game.

Like I said from the outset the only reason I have Mahomes ahead of Lamar is because Mahomes has the hardware. And until Lamar wins a SB he won't get the credit he deserves.

[NjRavensFan]

I don’t have time to do it all at once rn but I’ll try to go point by point in smaller bursts in the time being. I’ll start by saying that a major part of my argument was that even on “obvious passing downs” Lamar’s scrambling ability changes the looks he gets. So even on those downs I don’t think it’s apples to apples.

[JimZipCode]

I’ll also say I don’t think Lamar is decisively behind Mahomes or anything. I look at it a lot like Brady/Manning or (I know you hate tennis Jimmy)

I don't hate tennis! That was someone else on the board who said they don't like tennis. I mean, I don't spend time watching it or anything. But I think it's fine.

It's baseball that I hate. And I hate it in the way that only someone who used to like it, can hate.

Federer/Nadal. Two generational talents that we as sports fans should be grateful had their primes at the same time. In each case one was marginally better than the other overall, but their matchups were always appointment viewing

That's how I see it. We're in for a fucking treat these next several years, if those guys can stay healthy.

I think that most eveyr NFL fan across the country is rooting medium-hard for Lamar to get his shit together in the postseason, so the battle can be really-truly joined. Great rivalries really make sports; you need the other guy to meet the challenge. There's a lot of date-circling of week 3 of the schedule, in football media. I love that. We gotta hold up our end.

Y'know what it reminds me of, a little? Marino vs Montana. Marino the big-armed deep-ball pure passer playing for the old master coach vs Montana the smaller-armed mobile guy working in the newfangled offense with the younger brasher coach. It's not quite dead-on, but there's some striking similarities.

(and there are also scenarios where one or both has their prime cut short due to injury but I don’t want to imagine those)

Fer sure. The less said the better.

I just think Mahomes has the edge rn.

Of course. He's a year ahead and he's won in postseason. He certainly had the edge going IN to 2019; and you don't lose any edge when you win the SB.

But I do think it’s crazy to say that the *only* way to argue Mahomes>Lamar is to say running and defense don’t matter. Come on, man.

DOH! You almost got out of the post with me agreeing with you 100%! Had to get your little dig in, didn't you?

Mahomes as a passer > Lamar as a passer, sure. If you'd stopped right there, I'd have had nothing to say.

[NjRavensFan]

You’re right that was Shas that said that about tennis my bad

[JimZipCode]

... but even Cleveland couldn’t screw up Mahomes.

Possibly the most questionable assertion made in this thread.

[edromeo]

If anyone knows a metric that does a better job of quantifying degree of difficulty for a passer let me know.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/p...aggressiveness

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

[WNCRavensFan]

If anyone knows a metric that does a better job of quantifying degree of difficulty for a passer let me know.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/p...aggressiveness

Doesn't seem to correlate much to success though.

23.4 Matthew Stafford
22.7 Dwayne Haskins
22.4 Daniel Jones
20.9 Ryan Fitzpatrick
20.8 Andy Dalton
19.6 Ryan Tannehill
19.5 David Blough
19.0 Eli Manning
18.9 Baker Mayfield
18.6 Russell Wilson

[edromeo]

Doesn't seem to correlate much to success though.

23.4 Matthew Stafford
22.7 Dwayne Haskins
22.4 Daniel Jones
20.9 Ryan Fitzpatrick
20.8 Andy Dalton
19.6 Ryan Tannehill
19.5 David Blough
19.0 Eli Manning
18.9 Baker Mayfield
18.6 Russell Wilson

Okay....

[Ovechkin8]

1. Mahomes
2. Lamar
3. Watson
4. Allen
5. Big Ben
6. Tannehill
7. Carr
8. Darnold
9. Mayfield
10. Minshew
11. Lock
12. Burrow
13. Rivers
14. Fitzpatrick
15. Taylor
16. Stidham

[edromeo]

I don’t have time to do it all at once rn but I’ll try to go point by point in smaller bursts in the time being. I’ll start by saying that a major part of my argument was that even on “obvious passing downs” Lamar’s scrambling ability changes the looks he gets. So even on those downs I don’t think it’s apples to apples.

Can you explain what you mean by ‘apples to apples’ when it comes to comparing Lamar passing metrics?

Because it seems that you are not giving Lamar credit for a perceived advantage that Lamar’s own skillset creates.

Do you likewise discount the passing stats of other QBs who’s skillset give them advantages?

[John Reglarperson]

Patty Mahomes

Lamar Jackson
DeShaun Watson

Big Ben
Ryan Tannehill

Josh Allen
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Philip Rivers

Drew Lock
Derek Carr
Joe Burrow

Gardner Minshew
Tyrod Taylor
Jarrett Stidham
Ryan Fitzpatrick

As much as i want to put Lamar in the same tier as Mahomes.. Mahomes is on another level. Its like prime A-Rod the way he slings it. Pair that with andy reid's offense, it's going to be hard to battle them. But I do think Lamar is the only player who can reach that tier at the moment.

That list looks pretty good to me.

You have Carr in the bottom half. How many times do teams give a 7th season as a starter when 5 of the 6 years as a starter with that team were losing seasons. I tried to find a situation like that and there's really only Archie Manning with the Saints.

The Raiders have Mariota. Mariota had a winning record his 3 last years starting most of the games. Carr makes $20 Million a year, Mariota is making less than $10 Million.

I'd cut Carr immediately, they'd save $15 Million. Keep the money, spend on Clowney, or add Cam Newton and pocket the difference or many other choices.

[John Reglarperson]

What's to "believe"?

Mahomes is a little better than Lamar as a passer. Maybe 5%, 10%? I used 15% a few posts ago. Whatever: a little. And Lamar has this large other effect on the run game, that Mahomes does not offer at all. Therefore Lamar must do more for his team than Mahomes does. It's not escapable.

Remember back in 2018 when we talked about how Lamar improved the Ravens defense? He would manufacture these ridiculous long drives, while our defense would sit on the bench and crack jokes. We talked about this a lot on the board at the time, how Lamar was keeping the other team off the field, and our defense was always fresh.

Mahomes doesn't do the same thing for his team's defense.



No one wants to connect the dots. But all the pieces are all there; and they're OBVIOUS. If running the football has zero impact for a team (as PFF seems to think); and if defense isn't worth anything; then it is possible that Mahomes > Lamar. Not otherwise.

Running QBs are BEST.

Lamar was MVP.

I'm assuming that you are counting playoff results as nothing?

Because Kaepernick went to the Super Bowl his first year as a starter, then the NFC Championship, Russell Wilson won the Super Bowl in his 2nd year, Cam Newton went to the Super Bowl, Tim Tebow won a playoff game in his only year as a starter. One of the things that helps running QBs is the running helps them win. If you're comparing Lamar and Mahomes, Mahomes just won the Super Bowl. If you leave playoffs out, Lamar is ahead of Mahomes, but if you don't, Mahomes is ahead of Lamar. 14-2, then a playoff loss following 6-1, then a playoff loss. The playoff record should be better. The Ravens should've won the Super Bowl last year, and then Lamar at #1 would be undisputed. But 0-2 is actually bad, when you compare, let's say, Tebow, who is 1-1 in the playoffs.