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Thread: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
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05-26-2020, 01:03 PM #49On The Practice Squad
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05-26-2020, 01:06 PM #50Pro Bowl Poster
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Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
- Patrick Mahomes
- Lamar Jackson
- DeShaun Watson
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Derek Carr
- Ryan Tannehill
- Josh Allen
-Phillip Rivers
The rest are insignificant.
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05-26-2020, 01:11 PM #51
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05-26-2020, 01:16 PM #52Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
Bullshit. Mahomes minus 40% is Kirk Cousins. Lamar is a better passer than Kirk Cousins.
Bullshit. Lamar operated the Erhardt-Perkins offense in college. It takes a "system" to take full advantage of the everything else; but Lamar operates a "normal" passing offense just fine. You'd still have the 85% or 90% of Mahomes as a passer, + Lamar's scambling ability.
Here's where I agree with you: Lamar in any "normal offense" < Mahomes. He's 90%+ of Mahomes; the scrambling adds a few percent, but not enough to completely erase the gap.
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05-26-2020, 01:23 PM #53
Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
Yeah. The idea of a “system QB” also typically suggests someone who is fungible. Where the system is doing all the hard work and any vaguely competent QB could put up numbers there. Like Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense which has gone from Jeff Tuel to Connor Halliday to Luke Falk to Gardner Minshew (who wasn’t even particularly good as a QB at East Carolina) to Anthony Gordon without any dropoff.
Not only did the Ravens create their system specifically for Lamar, but I don’t think there’s a single human being on the face of the Earth who could have equal success within that system.
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05-26-2020, 01:58 PM #54
Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
I don't think it's possible to look at Lamar's effect on the running and passing games separately. His run threat opens up the passing game and gives him easier throws and, yes, I'd agree that, in that context, he isn't that far behind Mahomes as a passer.
However if you then want to give him credit as a runner too, aren't you in danger of counting his running threat twice, once in the run game and againin the passing game?
If you truly want to measure Lamar's passing on its own, you'd have to look at those few long 3rd/4th downs where running isn't an option at all. In those cases I'd agree with jonboy, Lamar is good but Mahomes is significantly ahead of him.
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Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
Right, QBR isn't trying to measure his impact on team the way you describe above and I wasn't saying that it did. That's a whole nother discussion.
But specific to your take.....QBR does quantify Lamar's direct EPA from his rush yards and that's not nothing; unlike other metrics which basically pretend his rushing production doesn't exist.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/...djQBR/dir/desc
QBR:Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating, which values the quarterback on all play types on a 0-100 scale adjusted for the strength of opposing defenses faced.
EPA:Total clutch-weighted expected points added.
PASS:Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN:Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes
2019 QBR EPA PASS RUN Lamar 81.8(#1) 103.7(#1) 55(#5) 39.1(#1) Patrick 76.3(#2) 97.3(#2) 71.6(#1) 14.3(#3)
Btw-Lamar's 2019 QBR is higher then Mahome's MVP season 80.3. Lamar's QBR this season is 6th highest QBR all-time (granted they've only been tracking it since 2006)
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05-26-2020, 02:13 PM #56Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
This is an excellent, excellent point. Lamar has a positive impact on his team's rushing game; but is that impact more than the difference between Mahomes & Lamar in the passing game?? It's a question of delta. As you point out, passing averages more yards per play. The degree to which Mahomes is better than Lamar in the passing game, could be worth more than the impact Lamar has in the rushing game.
Can we get a good handle on the delta between Lamar & Mahomes in the passing game? If it's immense, then Lamar might never be able to make it up thru the rushing game.
PFR tracks "Net Yards per Attempt", which is yards-per-attempt with sacks factored in. The numbers:
Mahomes: 7.79
LJackson: 7.13
So for a first estimate, Mahomes is +.66 yards per pass attempt.
Our first estimate of Lamar's impact on the other Ravens rushers is given by 2018 stats, before-Lamar vs after-Lamar. With Joe Flacco under center for the first 9 games, the Ravens as a team gained 3.6 yards-per-carry. After Lamar took over, the Ravens gained 5.1 ypc. That's +1.48 yards-per for the Lamar Effect on rushing. The 2019 Ravens ran for 5.5 ypc, vs the league avg of 4.3. That gives us an estimate of +1.2 yards-per for the Lamar Effect. If we use the lower figure, then Lamar still comes out ahead: his plus delta on the running game is greater than Mahomes plus delta on the passing game.
Lamar himself as a rusher averaged 6.9 ypc. That would have ranked 18th in yards-per-attempt among the 2019 passing offenses. Moves up to #11 if you use Net Yards per Attempt (which includes sacks). Lamar's rush attempts being more productive than the average teams's pass attempt, puts a real damper on the idea that Lamar's rush impact is inherently less valuable than someone else's passing impact.
Let's go back to that estimate on the delta between Lamar & Mahomes in the passing game. We calculated it above at +.66 yards-per. Do we think that's all Mahomes? The Chiefs top receivers on the season were:
Travis Kelce
Tyreek Hill
Sammy Watkins
Mecole Hardman
The Ravens top receivers were:
Mark Andrews
Marquise Brown
Hayden Hurst
Willie Snead
I think we all agree that the Chiefs top guys were across-the-board better than the Ravens top guys. That reduces the passing-delta between Mahomes & Lamar (but I don't know how much). Cian Fahey has Lamar losing 333 yds to receiver drops on the season (6th-most in the league), where Mahomes lost 236 yds (18th). Fahey also has Mahomes receivers "creating" 153 yds of receptions on rescues of bad throws (8th most); and Lamar's receivers creating half that much, 91 yds (18th most).
This all suggest that, whatever the delta is in the passing game between Mahomes & Lamar, it's not all due to QB quality. Mahomes' receivers are doing more for him than Lamar's receivers are. Therefore the actual delta between Mahomes & Lamar as passers is smaller than the yards-per stat suggests.
There are other measurements of per-play production. Football Outsiders has their efficiency stat, DVOA. In passing DVOA (no rushing value includes), they have Lamar just ahead of Mahomes. Here's their top six:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2019
Drew Brees · 39.8%
L Jackson · 34.9%
Mahomes · 30.0%
Stafford · 28.8%
Tannehill · 28.0%
D Prescott · 27.1%
This does not support the idea that Mahomes' advantage over Lamar as a passer is "large".
Cian Fahey does his film-driven accuracy assessments. I'm still getting a handle on his data and how to use it; so far I have focused on main two stats:
depth-adjusted accuracy
Mahomes · 60.3% (#10)
Lamar · 59.0% (#12)
3rd-down-to-sticks throws
Lamar · 65.6% (#6)
Mahomes · 57.6% (#17)
This does not support the idea that Mahomes has a "large" advantage over Lamar as a passer.
The idea that Mahomes advantage in the passing game is greater than Lamar's advantage in the running game, is a very reasonable theory, and an utterly sound basis on which to dispute my assertion about Lamar & Mahomes. It would completely destroy my argument.
However, it does not appear to be true.
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05-26-2020, 02:25 PM #57
Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
Without his legs IS Lamar any better than Cousins as an actual passer?
You are going to bring up stats, and that’s the problem. Lamar gets windows and looks no other QB in football gets. You cannot separate the passer from the runner in this sense:
You give Lamar 5lb ankle weights and he’s an average NFL QB.
If you put Lamar in a normal offense and yeah he operates it “fine” Mahomes excelled in every system.
Lamar will only excelling a purpose built system.
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05-26-2020, 02:26 PM #58
Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
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05-26-2020, 02:31 PM #59
Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
Thank you, and yes, this IS what I meant.
They are close as a passer, if and only if, you consider his effect as a rusher and how that changes defenses.
If his running skills were removed from his body, that is when the delta is massive as I suggest.
The actual pure passer that is Lamar is adequate. The actual pure passer that is Mahomes is otherworldly.
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05-26-2020, 02:36 PM #60Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs
I think it's easy to lump in Lamar's scrambles with his designed runs, and thus mix called runs with dropbacks. So in that sense, I think it's possible to double-count some stuff. It's almost hard not to.
But in the sense you're using, no I disagree. If Lamar's threat us a runner does anything to open up the passing game (like confine pass rashers to their lines, or pull a spy down from coverage), then that's just a thing that increases his effectiveness as a passer. Lamar's effect on the rushing game only shows up on actual rushing attempts, at least the way I've been trying to talk about it.
Already been done:
For the full season, Jackson was 61.9% accurate when playing in obvious passing situations. Mahomes was 63.7% accurate in those situations, he ranked fourth in the league while Jackson ranked sixth. If we isolate throws to the first down line on third downs (Third down and at least five yards), Jackson actually moves ahead of Mahomes. Jackson was 59.1% accurate, eighth-best in the league. Mahomes was 54.8% accurate, 13th in the league.
Let's move to a greater extreme. Let's look at third down plays where the first down line is 10+ yards away.
When throwing to the first down line on those plays, Jackson was 60% accurate and Mahomes was 39.1% accurate. Jackson ranked fifth in the league, Mahomes ranked 25th. These are small samples. They are very specific plays, plays that put the quarterback too far away from the first down line to scramble which exposes him to the defence's full range of blitzes. Play action is also not a factor when it's Third-and-10+.
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