Rank your 16 starting AFC QBs

[JimZipCode]

as far as 3 (win games) goes, he’s won both games against Lamar...

Come on. Both games were at KC. Game 1 was won in overtime. With home field adjustment, that's a Chiefs loss. Game 2 was won on the back of an epic defensive collapse by the Ravens in Q2. Did you see anything in those two games that leads you to the conclusion that those two teams are not evenly matched?

I've heard you make exactly these points in many posts here. Don't change your story now.

So you say Mahomes does 1 and 2 (move the ball and score points) so effortlessly, seemingly at will ...

We can make up arbitrary percentages all we want but you yourself list three things a QB needs to be able to do and Mahomes has arguably been better at all three.

I obviously love Lamar. But Mahomes is in a tier of his own. Even based on the operational definition that you offered yourself.

That's an extremely silly interpretation of my post.

Mahomes is dazzling to watch. Love seeing him. But there's zero evidence that he's better at the "three jobs" than Lamar.

1. Move the ball

Seriously? I don't know if you noticed, but the Ravens had the #1 offensive DVOA this past season. Chiefs weren't even second (Dallas). Ravens were #1 in rushing efficiency obviously; and #1 in passing officiency. My whole point about Lamar vs Mahomes is impact on team: but individually Lamar out-gained Mahomes passing + rushing (barely, by 80 yards).

2. Score points

Ravens led the league in total points this season, and in points-per-drive. They scored 2.96 points per drive; Chiefs were second with 2.62. Ravens also led in scoring %, the only team to score on over 50% of their drives (52.1). Chiefs were second at 49.4%).

If we look at individual stats, Lamar threw 10 more TD passes than Mahomes did. And he did it on 80 fewer passes than Mahomes attempted. Lamar also scored 5 more rushing TDs than Mahomes. And again this is without factoring in Lamar opening up things for other rushers.

How do you think that happened? Do you think the Ravens 2019 corps of pass-catchers was decisively better than the Chiefs group?

3. Win games

Lamar's record as a starter, including playoffs: 19-5 (0.792)
Mahomes record as a starter, including playoffs: 28-8 (0.778)

But wait, it gets better.

• In the 25 games before Lamar became the starter, the Ravens were 13-12 (0.520).
• In the 25 games before Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs were 17-8 (0.680).

Mahomes inherited an excellent Chiefs team and made them great.
Lamar inherited a mediocre-as-fuck Ravens team – and made them great.

Here's a table with both teams' last 25 games before and first 24 games after they changed QBs (Lamar has only started 24 games):

(before QB change W-L-%, After QB change W-L-%, delta)

Team	Before W	Before L	Before %	After W	After L	After %	Delta W	Delta %
Ravens	13	12	0.520	19	5	0.792	+6	0.272
Chiefs	17	8	0.680	17	7	0.708	+0	0.028

Would you say this is compelling evidence that Mahomes does more to help a team win than Lamar does?

What I see is pretty strongly suggestive evidence that Lamar is better at ALL 3 "tasks" than Mahomes is. Not proof, but strongly suggestive.

... and won a Super Bowl ring.

OH, gotcha! Mahomes is better becuzzz ringzzz. Well, that's as nuanced and intelligent an argument as it always is.

There's no question Lamar needs to get it together in the postseason. If he stays oh-fer, that would a damning blot on his record. But I would be shocked if he stays at oh-fer.

So would you.

[Laxdad24]

Come on. Both games were at KC. Game 1 was won in overtime. With home field adjustment, that's a Chiefs loss. Game 2 was won on the back of an epic defensive collapse by the Ravens in Q2. Did you see anything in those two games that leads you to the conclusion that those two teams are not evenly matched?

I've heard you make exactly these points in many posts here. Don't change your story now.



That's an extremely silly interpretation of my post.

Mahomes is dazzling to watch. Love seeing him. But there's zero evidence that he's better at the "three jobs" than Lamar.

1. Move the ball

Seriously? I don't know if you noticed, but the Ravens had the #1 offensive DVOA this past season. Chiefs weren't even second (Dallas). Ravens were #1 in rushing efficiency obviously; and #1 in passing officiency. My whole point about Lamar vs Mahomes is impact on team: but individually Lamar out-gained Mahomes passing + rushing (barely, by 80 yards).

2. Score points

Ravens led the league in total points this season, and in points-per-drive. They scored 2.96 points per drive; Chiefs were second with 2.62. Ravens also led in scoring %, the only team to score on over 50% of their drives (52.1). Chiefs were second at 49.4%).

If we look at individual stats, Lamar threw 10 more TD passes than Mahomes did. And he did it on 80 fewer passes than Mahomes attempted. Lamar also scored 5 more rushing TDs than Mahomes. And again this is without factoring in Lamar opening up things for other rushers.

How do you think that happened? Do you think the Ravens 2019 corps of pass-catchers was decisively better than the Chiefs group?

3. Win games

Lamar's record as a starter, including playoffs: 19-5 (0.792)
Mahomes record as a starter, including playoffs: 28-8 (0.778)

But wait, it gets better.

• In the 25 games before Lamar became the starter, the Ravens were 13-12 (0.520).
• In the 25 games before Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs were 17-8 (0.680).

Mahomes inherited an excellent Chiefs team and made them great.
Lamar inherited a mediocre-as-fuck Ravens team – and made them great.

Here's a table with both teams' last 25 games before and first 24 games after they changed QBs (Lamar has only started 24 games):

(before QB change W-L-%, After QB change W-L-%, delta)

Team	Before W	Before L	Before %	After W	After L	After %	Delta W	Delta %
Ravens	13	12	0.520	19	5	0.792	+6	0.272
Chiefs	17	8	0.680	17	7	0.708	+0	0.028

Would you say this is compelling evidence that Mahomes does more to help a team win than Lamar does?

What I see is pretty strongly suggestive evidence that Lamar is better at ALL 3 "tasks" than Mahomes is. Not proof, but strongly suggestive.



OH, gotcha! Mahomes is better becuzzz ringzzz. Well, that's as nuanced and intelligent an argument as it always is.

There's no question Lamar needs to get it together in the postseason. If he stays oh-her, that would a damning blot on his record. But I would be shocked if he stays at oh-fer.

So would you.

Jimmy you are arguing Chocolate vs Vanilla. There simply is no “proof” yet who the “better “ qb is. But at this point ...Mahomes has the lead because of 4 post season wins AND a Super Bowl. That’s the reason they play. Super Bowls. Even Lamar himself would tell you that.


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[NjRavensFan]

The gymnastics Jim is doing in this thread are truly staggering to behold. You’re a singular force my dude. I don’t believe you actually believe Lamar is better than Mahomes but the fact that you’ve attempted to turn a subjective discussion into a wild mathematical proof is really impressive. I’m not even being snarky.

[edromeo]

JZC-
You should look at QBR.
They get the closet to quantifying your take.
The QBR is a combination of several separate Expected
Points added metrics, including pass AND run EPA.

[JimZipCode]

JZC-
You should look at QBR.
They get the closet to quantifying your take.
The QBR is a combination of several separate Expected
Points added metrics, including pass AND run EPA.

You sold me on QBR sometime last year. I had been a believer in EPA already; I didn't realize the link between EPA and QBR.

(Still have some reservations about how they "normalize" to get to that percent-looking number; but mostly I trust them.)

But I think Lamar's lead in QBR understates his impact. No stat that we have accounts for the way Lamar pulls attention on a read-option where he gives the ball. The closest we can come is to look at something like Gus edwards 2018:

4.3 ypc before Lamar took over
5.3 ypc after Lamar took over

That's what I'm talking about when I refer to Lamar's "effect on the rushing game." It doesn't show up in Lamar's stats; it shows up in other players stats.

[JimZipCode]

I don’t believe you actually believe Lamar is better than Mahomes

What's to "believe"?

Mahomes is a little better than Lamar as a passer. Maybe 5%, 10%? I used 15% a few posts ago. Whatever: a little. And Lamar has this large other effect on the run game, that Mahomes does not offer at all. Therefore Lamar must do more for his team than Mahomes does. It's not escapable.

Remember back in 2018 when we talked about how Lamar improved the Ravens defense? He would manufacture these ridiculous long drives, while our defense would sit on the bench and crack jokes. We talked about this a lot on the board at the time, how Lamar was keeping the other team off the field, and our defense was always fresh.

Mahomes doesn't do the same thing for his team's defense.



No one wants to connect the dots. But all the pieces are all there; and they're OBVIOUS. If running the football has zero impact for a team (as PFF seems to think); and if defense isn't worth anything; then it is possible that Mahomes > Lamar. Not otherwise.

[NjRavensFan]

Ok

[JimZipCode]

Ok

I had a little trouble with it at first too. I think I was doing the dishes or something on Sat or Sun, letting my mind wander, when suddenly I was like "Wait! Holy shit." Whatever was going on, I was in the middle of something and just stopped dead, stood still for a moment.

Let it sit a while. Maybe take another look at that table of Ravens and Chiefs wins & losses.

[NjRavensFan]

I had a little trouble with it at first too. I think I was doing the dishes or something on Sat or Sun, letting my mind wander, when suddenly I was like "Wait! Holy shit." Whatever was going on, I was in the middle of something and just stopped dead, stood still for a moment.

Let it sit a while. Maybe take another look at that table of Ravens and Chiefs wins & losses.

Nah, I’m good. Not having any trouble at all. This is up there with the most I’ve ever seen someone overthink something lol. Your ability to think outside the box like this and articulate it clearly is a big part of what makes you such a great poster, but you’re wrong on this one imo.

If you want I can take the time to point what I think the more specific flaws with your line of thinking are, beyond “trust what you see with your own eyes,” I can circle back around to that later this afternoon when I have a bit more time. But for now I’ll just say there’s no shame in being second best to Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is a dude who, barring a career-derailing injury, will have an excellent claim to best QB of all time when it’s all said and done.

[seraph]

But you ARE quantifying it, in effect. You're saying that Lamar's effect on the running game is less valuable than the delta between Mahomes passing and Lamar's passing.

If Mahomes is at 100 as a passer, what would you say Lamar is? A 90? 80? 70?

Careful. You have to pick something that makes sense relative to the rest of the league. Pick a pctg for Lamar that's too low and you'll wind up claiming that Lamar is less of a passer than say Josh Allen. Clearly ridiculous. For reference, Football Outsiders ranked Mahomes with 1354 passing DYAR this past season (their counting stat), and Lamar with 1252 passing DYAR. That's passing only, no rushing plays included. Lamar's total was about 91% of Mahomes. (And Mahomes had more attempts, but never mind.)

If Lamar is about 90% of the passer that Mahomes is (I went with 85% in my long post above), then you're saying that Lamar's effect on the running game is less valuable than 10% of Mahomes. And that's absurd.

What is 10% of Mahomes? Josh Rosen? Kyle Boller? Ryan Leaf? Lamar's effect on the running game is about the equivalent of adding Kyle Boller to a passing attack? That just isn't possible.

But you're inescapably led to a conclusion like that, if you assume that Mahomes > Lamar. Which tells you something about thst assumption.

I think it's easier to see a QB's impact on the passing game on stats than it is to see a dual threat QB's effect on the running game on stats. You're just assuming that rushing success can be attributed to Lamar's ability. Lamar probably does impact the running game but does it beat out a high level passing offense that tends to average more yards per play? I think Mahomes as a passer can generate production as well as his LoS game (drawing penalties, audibles, game management), scrambles. Lamar should take the next step in developing LoS command and I think he can close the gap to Mahomes. But really Patrick Mahomes is a mutant and every QB should just merge themselves with artificial intelligence to get on his level.

[JimZipCode]

This is up there with the most I’ve ever seen someone overthink something lol.
...
If you want I can take the time to point what I think the more specific flaws with your line of thinking are, beyond “trust what you see with your own eyes,” I can circle back around to that later this afternoon when I have a bit more time. But for now I’ll just say there’s no shame in being second best to Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is a dude who, barring a career-derailing injury, will have an excellent claim to best QB of all time when it’s all said and done.

I completely agree with all of that. Couple posts ago I said that he's the most exciting young passer I can remember seeing, like the best parts of Favre and Marino baked into one. I left out Bert Jones, to my shame. The "suddenness" is what reminds me of Marino & Jones; the rest of the play style reminds me of Favre, but less reckless, more cerebral. Mahomes is insanely good. Still young too.

Mahomes 2018 season was incredible. It also wasn't all that different from other great seasons we've seen before:

Payton Manning 2013: 5475 yds, 55 TDs
Tom Brady 2007: 4800 yds, 50 TDs
Peyton Manning 2004: 4550 yds, 49 TDs
Dan Marino 1984: 5080 yds, 48 TDs
Drew Brees 2011: 5475 yds, 46 TDs

Mahomes' season fits right in the middle of that group. Tremendous, hall-of-fame type accomplishment, that has been equalled four or five times in NFL history.

We can acknowledge Mahomes greatness, without denying what's right in front of our faces. Lamar's 2019 season was incredible. It was completely different from any other great season we've ever seen before. It stands alone. No one else has ever done anything remotely like it. Before it happened, I and everyone else would have said that it was impossible.

Lamar is a dude who, barring a career-derailing injury, will have an excellent claim to being the best NFL player of all time when it’s all said and done. Another couplefew seasons similar to what he just did, he will be a titanic figure in NFL history. One of a kind; the Jim Brown of quarterbacking.

[jonboy79]

What's to "believe"?

Mahomes is a little better than Lamar as a passer. Maybe 5%, 10%? I used 15% a few posts ago. Whatever: a little. .

I think this is where you are losing people.
This gap is MASSIVE, more like 30 or 40%.

The only reason it’s close(and it’s not really) is everything else. Trust me, I love the everything else, but Lamar is the single most “system QB” in history(not close or debatable).
Mahomes takes just about any team and coach to the SB.


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