NFL HC hiring and minority candidates

[JimZipCode]

Trying to pull a discussion out of the "News & Rumors" thread.

Here's some data. Over the past 15 years, there have been 104 offseason head-coach hirings in the NFL (omitting interims). Of those 17 have been African American for a pctg of 16.3%.

List:

Year	Coach	AA
2020	Joe Judge
2020	Mike McCarthy
2020	Matt Rhule
2020	Ron Rivera
2020	Kevin Stefanski
2019	Bruce Arians
2019	Adam Gase
2019	Brian Flores	*
2019	Matt LaFleur
2019	Vic Fangio
2019	Freddie Kitchens
2019	Zac Taylor
2019	Kliff Kingsbury
2018	Steve Wilks	*
2018	Jon Gruden
2018	Mike Vrabel
2018	Matt Patricia
2018	Frank Reich
2018	Matt Nagy
2018	Pat Shurmur
2017	Vance Joseph	*
2017	Doug Marrone
2017	Sean McDermott
2017	Anthony Lynn	*
2017	Sean McVay
2017	Kyle Shanahan
2016	Adam Gase
2016	Chip Kelly
2016	Dirk Koetter
2016	Ben Mcadoo
2016	Doug Pederson
2016	Mike Mularky
2016	Hue Jackson	*
2015	Dan Quinn
2015	Rex Ryan
2015	Jack Del Rio
2015	John Fox
2015	Todd Bowles	*
2015	Gary Kubiak
2015	Jim Tomsula
2014	Mike Pettine
2014	Bill O’Brien
2014	Ken Whisenhunt
2014	Jay Gruden
2014	Jim Caldwell	*
2014	Mike Zimmer
2014	Lovie Smith	*
2013	Andy Reid
2013	Chip Kelly
2013	Marc Trestman
2013	Gus Bradley
2013	Mike McCoy
2013	Doug Marrone
2013	Rob Chudzinski
2013	Bruce Arians
2012	Romeo Crennel	*
2012	Mike Mularky
2012	Jeff Fisher
2012	Joe Philbin
2012	Dennis Allen
2012	Chuck Pagano
2012	Greg Schiano
2011	Pat Shurmur
2011	Hue Jackson	*
2011	Jim Harbaugh
2011	Mike Munchak
2011	Ron Rivera
2011	John Fox
2011	Leslie Frazier	*
2010	Pete Carroll
2010	Chan Gailey
2010	Jason Garrett
2010	Mike Shanahan
2009	Josh McDaniel
2009	Jim Caldwell	*
2009	Todd Haley
2009	Jim Schwartz
2009	Rex Ryan
2009	Steve Spanuolo
2009	Raheem Morris	*
2008	Tony Sparano
2008	Tom Cable
2008	Jim Zorn
2008	Mike Smith
2008	John Harbuagh
2008	Mike Singletary	*
2008	Jim Haslett
2007	Bobby Petrino
2007	Ken Whisenhunt
2007	Wade Phillips
2007	Cam Cameron
2007	Lane Kiffin
2007	Mike Tomlin	*
2007	Norv Turner
2006	Dick Juaron
2006	Rod Marinelli
2006	Mike McCarthy
2006	Gary Kubiak
2006	Herm Edwards	*
2006	Brad Childress
2006	Sean Payton
2006	Eric Mangini
2006	Art Shell	*
2006	Scott Linehan

Please check me on the above. The sources I pulled from were varied; and the coach ethnicities I did completely from memory.

Also, note that Ron Rivera (on there twice) is denoted a minority hire due to being Latino: I didn't count him bc we've been specifically talking about Black coaches. There might be other minority hires I didn't notice.

[guymf4]

Oh good. I was really worried this discussion was going to die and be replaced by football talk.

I'll admit it was very civil over there on the other thread and good points were made, but wow, this is definitely the off season multiplied by quarantine.



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[JimZipCode]

Here's the same data from above, but formatted "retroactively".

This table says: from our position today, if you "look back" zero years (ie at just this hiring season of 2020), you see 0 African-American hires. If your lookback includes one additional year, so 2019-2020, you see 1 Black hire. If you "look back" 2 years, so 2018-20 (this hiring season + the previous 2), you see 2 Black hires. And so forth.

Lookback	Coaches	AA	Pct
0	5	0	0%
1	13	1	7.7%
2	20	2	10.0%
3	26	4	15.4%
4	33	5	15.2%
5	40	6	15.0%
6	47	8	17.0%
7	55	8	14.5%
8	62	9	14.5%
9	69	11	15.9%
10	73	11	15.1%
11	80	13	16.3%
12	87	14	16.1%
13	94	15	16.0%
14	104	17	16.3%

I think this table makes it clear why there's been a recent hue & cry about the issue. The league was chugging along for a dozen years or so with a fairly steady stream of Black coaches getting hired at an expected rate, between 15 and 17%. Last three hiring seasons that has fallen off dramatically.

Randomness always creeps into things: it's quite possible this is merely a blip. But laid out like that, I think it's pretty understandable why the issue is "in the news", so to speak.

[JimZipCode]

Oh good. I was really worried this discussion was going to die and be replaced by football talk.

Well, point of this thread is to help it die in the other thread. I'm trying to be thoughtful/considerate.

If we don't need this one, then we don't need it.

[guymf4]

Well, point of this thread is to help it die in the other thread. I'm trying to be thoughtful/considerate.

If we don't need this one, then we don't need it.

I'm just giving you shit. It's not a terrible topic and certainly got a lot of interesting viewpoints in the other thread.



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[JimZipCode]

Well if you look at NFL coaches and their percentages it actually pretty in line with the general population 3/32 (12 percent general).

I've been assuming a population figure between 14 and 15%. I think I got it off Wikipedia?

But is that an appropriate benchmark? Black Americans may make up only 14 or 15% of the population; but they constitute a MUCH higher percentage of football players, both NFL and college. Most NFL coaches did not play NFL ball; but the vast majority of them did play college ball. Football coaches are almost universally ex-players, either college or pro.

I don't think decision makers in the NFL are racist if they were they picked the wrong league to do it in because the majority of the players are African American.

I don't think any NFL decision-makers are overtly racist. I think no one in this thread has suggested that. We're talking about implicit bias.

As far as NFL coaches go I don't view African American coaches any differently then their white counterparts I assume they made it with luck, timing, and a good deal merit.

That's a good point, the "luck" factor. No one gets to coach in the NFL without a healthy dose of luck. The "who you know" factor.

One of the goals of the Rooney Rule and the minority fellowship program that Bill Walsh started, was to get minority coaches in front of people, increase their "who you know" factor so that good candidates could get noticed.

Do you only get a 5th round pick if you hire an Asian? What if you hire someone who is biracial? Do you only get half?

Love it. A team could hire Norm Chow and only get a 6th-rd pick – Chinese and native Hawaiian descent. There's some good joke material in here.

It also calls into question of the integrity of the sport itself because you are no longer hiring the best candidate

See, that's the card that people try to play, and I think it's bullshit. The whole argument is that several of the best candidates are NOT getting hired due to implicit bias etc.

No one snags an interview to be an NFL HC without being highly qualified. (Except for Zac Taylor.) From that point – well it's probably pretty unusual for teams to actually hire the "best" candidate. Hell, look at the Ravens: in 2008 they initially made an offer to Jason Garrett! Our Harbs was far & away the best HC hired during the 2008 cycle; maybe during the three cycles 2007 to 2009 depending on how you feel about Shaft in Pittsburgh; and he wasn't the Ravens first choice.

Identifying the best candidate is the holy grail of the hiring process. Damn hard to know whether you've achieved it or not. I think pretty much every team thinks they've done it every year; and about 2/3 of the time the guy they've hired isn't even that good.

Teams usually aren't hiring the best candidate, period. Probably every year, and I'm pulling this number out of thin air, but probably in any given hiring season the best 2 or 3 Black candidates are better than about half of the white coaches who get hired. Maybe not in years like 2006, 2009, 2011, 2014 where multiple Black coaches were hired; but most of the rest of the time.

The "integrity of the sport" is not harmed by teams being forced to include black coaches in their candidate pools.

Then again: Hue Jackson.

[JimZipCode]

BTW, in the big table that opens this thread, I originaly had an extra column, with my completely subjective impression of whether the hire was a good one or not. I had to drop it, because the post was getting rejected for length. But I know that everyone is dying to see who I think were the good hires, so here you go:

Year	Coach	Good?
2020	Mike McCarthy	*
2020	Ron Rivera	+
2019	Bruce Arians	+
2019	Brian Flores	+
2019	Vic Fangio	+
2018	Jon Gruden	*
2018	Mike Vrabel	+
2018	Frank Reich	+
2017	Sean McDermott	+
2017	Anthony Lynn	+
2017	Sean McVay	+
2017	Kyle Shanahan	+
2016	Doug Pederson	+
2015	John Fox	+
2015	Gary Kubiak	+
2014	Mike Pettine	+
2014	Jim Caldwell	+
2014	Mike Zimmer	+
2014	Lovie Smith	+
2013	Andy Reid	+
2013	Chip Kelly	+
2013	Bruce Arians	+
2011	Jim Harbaugh	+
2011	Ron Rivera	+
2011	John Fox	+
2010	Pete Carroll	+
2010	Mike Shanahan	+
2009	Jim Caldwell	+
2009	Jim Schwartz	+
2008	John Harbuagh	+
2007	Mike Tomlin	+
2006	Mike McCarthy	+
2006	Gary Kubiak	+
2006	Sean Payton	+
2006	Art Shell	?

McCarthy 2020 and Gruden 2018 get a different symbol because, while I wouldn't have hired them and I don't anticipate them being particularly successful, there's no objective argument to make against their SB resumes.

Art Shell gets the question mark in 2006 because, while he was an excellent coach in 2989-94, he was completely ineffective when he came back in 2006. I wonder if he was just too old or too far removed from the game or something. Should have been a plus hire, but something was off.

35 "good" or plus coaches out of 104 hires is 33.7%. So 2/3 of all coaching hires are fungible nobodies.
Sturgeon's Law strikes again! Or some less ferocious version of it, 67% rather than 90.

[jonboy79]

I.


See, that's the card that people try to play, and I think it's bullshit. The whole argument is that several of the best candidates are NOT getting hired due to implicit bias etc.

:

If this were the case, than the Black Candidate’s that don’t get their shot have been superior for a few years and when their wait is over, they take the league by storm.

But that’s not happening either. So you are saying the best candidates rot for eternity? Because without a mountain of statistical evidence to back it up, I wiuld presume that Black HC’s hover around .500 win percentage as a whole just like the white coaches.

Even a .550 win percentage paints a clear picture, .520 is likely statistically significant.

It’s more work than I want to do, but. The entire conglomerate coaching record is exactly .500. It would take someone to add up the wins from every coach on the list and adding up the losses and comparing those numbers. It’s likely a lot of work to find out they tend toward the mean with enough data, but...


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[WNCRavensFan]

I'm really interested in the new Census numbers -- I'm also concerned that the extreme-right/white-power political machine will find a way to falsify the data.

As of the last Census (2010), 97.1% of Americans identified as one race.

12.6% of Americans identified as black. 4.8% asian, 0.9% american indian, 0.2% pacific islander, 6.2% non-specified (no idea the breakdown there) and the rest white (72.4%).

Hispanic/Latino as many of you who've filled out a job form know, is considered "ethnicity" and not "race" and ten years ago a full 15.4% identified as Hispanic/Latino.

So if we're going by US Census numbers from ten years ago, things are fine from a black/white perspective. But of course the employees of the NFL are disproportionately black -- due to the players. And it's not really because "they're better athletes" or else we'd still see a disproportionate amount of Black Americans playing baseball. It's because of our culture. We have a system in place to groom young players from childhood through high school and college.

So what do you base equality from in this instance? And what about people who don't identify as Black or White? Are they seriously all lumped in as "people of color"?

My personal opinions on the matter are different. Most people in America are mixed race and we should start seeing ourselves that way if we truly want to get past racial barriers.

Again, I'd like to see the updated Census numbers for 2020.

[BcRaven]

Well, point of this thread is to help it die in the other thread. I'm trying to be thoughtful/considerate.

If we don't need this one, then we don't need it.

Jimmy, this was IMO a great idea. The subject is important enough to have it's own thread.

Thank you... Bc

[wickedsolo]

Trying to pull a discussion out of the "News & Rumors" thread.

Here's some data. Over the past 15 years, there have been 104 offseason head-coach hirings in the NFL (omitting interims). Of those 17 have been African American for a pctg of 16.3%.

List:

Year	Coach	AA
2020	Joe Judge
2020	Mike McCarthy
2020	Matt Rhule
2020	Ron Rivera
2020	Kevin Stefanski
2019	Bruce Arians
2019	Adam Gase
2019	Brian Flores	*
2019	Matt LaFleur
2019	Vic Fangio
2019	Freddie Kitchens
2019	Zac Taylor
2019	Kliff Kingsbury
2018	Steve Wilks	*
2018	Jon Gruden
2018	Mike Vrabel
2018	Matt Patricia
2018	Frank Reich
2018	Matt Nagy
2018	Pat Shurmur
2017	Vance Joseph	*
2017	Doug Marrone
2017	Sean McDermott
2017	Anthony Lynn	*
2017	Sean McVay
2017	Kyle Shanahan
2016	Adam Gase
2016	Chip Kelly
2016	Dirk Koetter
2016	Ben Mcadoo
2016	Doug Pederson
2016	Mike Mularky
2016	Hue Jackson	*
2015	Dan Quinn
2015	Rex Ryan
2015	Jack Del Rio
2015	John Fox
2015	Todd Bowles	*
2015	Gary Kubiak
2015	Jim Tomsula
2014	Mike Pettine
2014	Bill O’Brien
2014	Ken Whisenhunt
2014	Jay Gruden
2014	Jim Caldwell	*
2014	Mike Zimmer
2014	Lovie Smith	*
2013	Andy Reid
2013	Chip Kelly
2013	Marc Trestman
2013	Gus Bradley
2013	Mike McCoy
2013	Doug Marrone
2013	Rob Chudzinski
2013	Bruce Arians
2012	Romeo Crennel	*
2012	Mike Mularky
2012	Jeff Fisher
2012	Joe Philbin
2012	Dennis Allen
2012	Chuck Pagano
2012	Greg Schiano
2011	Pat Shurmur
2011	Hue Jackson	*
2011	Jim Harbaugh
2011	Mike Munchak
2011	Ron Rivera
2011	John Fox
2011	Leslie Frazier	*
2010	Pete Carroll
2010	Chan Gailey
2010	Jason Garrett
2010	Mike Shanahan
2009	Josh McDaniel
2009	Jim Caldwell	*
2009	Todd Haley
2009	Jim Schwartz
2009	Rex Ryan
2009	Steve Spanuolo
2009	Raheem Morris	*
2008	Tony Sparano
2008	Tom Cable
2008	Jim Zorn
2008	Mike Smith
2008	John Harbuagh
2008	Mike Singletary	*
2008	Jim Haslett
2007	Bobby Petrino
2007	Ken Whisenhunt
2007	Wade Phillips
2007	Cam Cameron
2007	Lane Kiffin
2007	Mike Tomlin	*
2007	Norv Turner
2006	Dick Juaron
2006	Rod Marinelli
2006	Mike McCarthy
2006	Gary Kubiak
2006	Herm Edwards	*
2006	Brad Childress
2006	Sean Payton
2006	Eric Mangini
2006	Art Shell	*
2006	Scott Linehan

Please check me on the above. The sources I pulled from were varied; and the coach ethnicities I did completely from memory.

Also, note that Ron Rivera (on there twice) is denoted a minority hire due to being Latino: I didn't count him bc we've been specifically talking about Black coaches. There might be other minority hires I didn't notice.

I'm nitpicking and I read your last sentence, but you should put an asterisk beside Ron Rivera.

[InigoMontoya]

Aren't the overwhelming majority of NFL head coaches former (college or NFL) players? Aren't most college or NFL players African American?

It makes the most sense to me that in a fair world, if former players are hired as NFL coaches, that the percentage of NFL coaches that are minorities should come pretty close to the percentage of minorities that are players.