Ravens 2020 Backfield and Running Game

[The Excellector]

With Yanda gone, that man is going to scramble.

[edromeo]

[rhapsody]

With Yanda gone, that man is going to scramble.

You have put your finger on it.

[rhapsody]

I view the Dobbins - Ingram relationship akin to the Saints backfield w/ Ingram and Kamara.

If it were me I would make Dobbins the lead back IF he wins the job in training camp. (200 carries)

Ingram is at the age where his carries are more about quality then quantity. (170 carries)

I'm certainly a believer in Justice, I think the kid gets a worse rap on this forum then is warranted. I still think he has the most explosive burst/explosive acceleration on the team. I think he's a better runner then his ypc indicate and he's a kick returner.
In a couple years I envision Dobbins and Justice as the Ravens 1-2 punch.

I think Gus is the most at risk to lose carries.

I think Lamar carries drop to the 130 range.

I agree with all of this. Hill had a lot of carries in garbage time; in running down the clock mode, some of those were with no prospect of gaining yardage. I think he has a bright future. I like Gus, but his best chance of maintaining his position with the Ravens is (probably) if Ingram gets hurt or starts showing a decline this season.

[organizedchaos21]

I agree with all of this. Hill had a lot of carries in garbage time; in running down the clock mode, some of those were with no prospect of gaining yardage. I think he has a bright future. I like Gus, but his best chance of maintaining his position with the Ravens is (probably) if Ingram gets hurt or starts showing a decline this season.

Some numbers for Hill:

• 58 carries for 225 yards
• 8 catches on 15 targets for 70 yards
• 196 snaps, including 15 nullified by penalty (9 of which were presnap penalties, which are not counted as snaps on sites like PFR or FO)
  
  • 100 total dropbacks (92 pass attempts + 8 sacks)
  • 80 called runs (including 3 kneels)
  • 9 presnap penalties
  • 6 other plays nullified by penalty (3 dropbacks, 3 called runs)
  • 1 botched snap (Skura hit Andrews who was in motion; this was likely another dropback)

These are regular season totals (he got a ton of snaps and a ton of dropbacks against the Titans). I don't have numbers for the RS only, but if I include the playoff game, only one other skill player was on the field for a higher percentage of dropbacks than Hill's 67% (148/221): Mark Andrews. Hollywood's 63% is third, and then there's a sharp dropoff to Roberts at 55%. All that is to say, the Ravens threw a lot when Hill was on the field (likely because Hill was brought in for passing situations). It's unfortunate that he never got going in the passing game. Whether it was a botched screen (Chiefs) or pressure forcing the Lamar to look elsewhere (@Steelers, link), it just didn't work in 2019.

He definitely did a ton of work in Q4 (nearly half of his total carries). Here are his carries by quarter:

q	Carries	Yards
1	9	33
2	9	49
3	14	36
4	26	107
Total	58	225

He got most of his carries when the Ravens were winning (but then again, the Ravens were winning for a ridiculous percentage of snaps this season). His carries by score breakdown:

type	Carries	Yards
ahead	46	188
tied	5	12
trail	7	25
Total	58	225

I don't want to do too much here, but I can go deeper if anyone wants to see (or do it for another player).

[edromeo]

I agree with all of this.

My hope is that we get away from the reliance on read-option plays and really truly develop an independent run game that can stand on its own.

To do that we gotta have a good stable of backs and a complete back. I think Dobbins is that guy.
Vision, great feet, super quick, runs tough and has long speed.

Nothing against Ingram but he doesn't bring all those tools to the table anymore. He's never really been a speed guy; 4.53 coming into the NFL.
To my eye Ingram has outstanding vision, great contact balance and more power then his size lets on.

Can be a QBs best friend in the passing game b/c he's a great in pass pro and good receiver (underused imo).
Also Ingram is a "football player" not just a RB, he's a leader he's great in the locker room/team chemistry.
You would want to put your rookies next to him in the locker room.

Its for those reasons that I would give Ingram the "first carry" of games.

But when it comes to maximizing a run game I want homeruns. And Ingram certainly had some big runs last year but I would that most of his big runs came on read-option plays as opposed to 'regular' run game.
And there is nothing wrong with that.

I think the only way to take full advantage of a run scheme w/ Lamar at QB is to have RBs that can convert those huge holes into explosive plays (if not TDs). But I would also want to bring that explosive run threat to the 'base' run game and I think Dobbins can be that.

Even though I would 'start' the game w/ Ingram, Dobbins would be my lead runner, he would be the guy I'm looking to tote the rock.

I think JK will be a 1,000 yard rusher.

Hill had a lot of carries in garbage time; in running down the clock mode, some of those were with no prospect of gaining yardage. I think he has a bright future. I like Gus, but his best chance of maintaining his position with the Ravens is (probably) if Ingram gets hurt or starts showing a decline this season.

I like Gus too, I actually think in the right scheme (on another team) he could be a 1,000 yard back or a quality back-up to team like the Titans.....he seems ripe for a DeCosta trade.

[QtR Nevermore]

I like Gus, but his best chance of maintaining his position with the Ravens is (probably) if Ingram gets hurt or starts showing a decline this season.

I think it will only cost us about $3 million to keep Gus in 2021. We'd be stupid not to keep him at that price unless he has a massive decline in performance or an injury.

Of course, that makes him very tradeable too but I'd like to keep him. He fits in well with what we do.

[Raven Roller]

Yeah me too. I know most folks have Gus behind Dobbins in the depth chart, but I think you don't tinker with a #1 running game unless JK is clearly superior in the preseason. Gus career: 5.2 ypc and 2 or 3 lost fumbles. Dobbins has not played a down in the NFL so we'll see.

I see JK as Ingram's replacement in a year or two and GREAT insurance against injury this year.

[edromeo]

Questions possibly buried in the OP:

How do you expect the staff will divvy up the carries?
How would you like to see the carries split up?


-Who do you think will be the lead RB and how many carries do you think they'll get?
Who would you pick as the lead RB and how many carries would you give them?

What are your overall expectations or general comments on the run game?

[JimZipCode]

I think JK will be a 1,000 yard rusher.

That seems like a really modest target. I would think you'd agree that JK has 1500-yd potential.

[edromeo]

That seems like a really modest target. I would think you'd agree that JK has 1500-yd potential.

I don’t think he’ll get enough carries for 1,500 this season.

[JimZipCode]

I don’t think he’ll get enough carries for 1,500 this season.

Agreed.

Oh, you meant THIS season for the thousand yards? Himm. Not sure about that.