Ravens Still Don't Get it it at WR

[Shas]

On Boykin’s production... 2018 wasn’t actually underwhelming at all... Put him on a high-flying Big 12 offense and I think he puts up monster numbers

He battled injury including broken hands for his first two years, and then broke out to more or less the greatest degree that the 2018 Notre Dame offense allowed. Numbers are great but they need context. When you consider context it’s clear that he wasn’t an underachiever in college.

I’m not extrapolating. I’m saying he produced at an admirable rate in 2018 and showed good hands in college. That’s all. That may or may not translate to the NFL..

Your first two quotes was where I was sensing some extrapolation. "IF he hadn't got hurt, and IF he played in a high flying offense..." I see the point but it is just a bit too iffy for me to draw conclusions on what kind of college receiver he was.

And since the only reason he is being discussed in this thread is because we are discussing whether the Ravens "get it" when projecting players who will develop into solid NFL receivers, I'm interested in this latter question of projecting his college resume into the NFL. I feel like it requires two layers of extrapolation for me to get to the answer.

I never said he was bad or underachieved at ND. I just said the production wasn't there to warrant taking him, solely on that (very important) factor.

Said another way, I'm not completely sold on how solid a receiver he is based on one nice season, especially when the scouting reports I recalled reading had some red flags about consistently coming down with catches. If those are overblown, great, but I was hoping he'd have a really great rookie year in the NFL that erased any of these doubts. We're still looking at a guy with such limited involvement that I need to seem more.

You just keep repeating yourself. You’re usually better than this at actually engaging.

Hopefully my explanation above is less repetitive and more engaged with what you have been saying. These are the statements that I find to be a tad personal in how you make your points--but you've explained before I shouldn't read you that way, so I won't. No worries.

As to this part, being a more consistent/more physical/more polished route runner should be priorities one, two, and three if he’s going to break out and establish himself in a key role. More consistent catch technique certainly wouldn’t hurt but it won’t get him much of anywhere in and of itself. The small number of drops weren’t the main reason he had so few catches. He caught 60% of the balls that went his way, but he was only targeted 22 times. Because he played small, slow, and soft, despite his obvious size speed and strength.

I didn't mean to imply his lack of production was from dropped passes in college--I didn't say his numbers would be better if he caught more balls. Perhaps that is a misunderstanding that got us off track.

Lack of production and the hands questions are separate issues. The former we can all see for ourselves. And we can decide what the reason is, and what weight to put behind it. The hands question came from reports I read and if they aren't accurate or unfair, I am happy to hear it.

My read on what Harbaugh said is pretty clear: he wants to see him be stronger in coming down with contested catches. I felt that went directly to the "red flags" on saw on his scouting reports. Squeezing balls coming out of the JUGS machines, ditto. None of that, to me, has anything to do with route running and getting separation.

[you] also said there was reason for skepticism given his athletic traits and lack of college production. And I just don’t think that’s a fair representation of his college career when you consider context.

To be be clear, what I said is that he lacked college production. I didn't say he underachieved. I understand that the offense he played in and the injuries prevented him from putting up bigger production. That's not underachieving, I agree. But a lack of production is a lack of production--without attempting to explaining why or assigning blame.

And I personally like to see production in college receivers. When it is not there, I need to work harder to project that player.

What I am saying is that you are going to draft him, you have to make a bit of a projection on the player he could be, or would have been under different circumstances. That is where I think you were more willing to say that he's a better player than the numbers suggest. (to which I said you were extrapolating his projection into other settings). I am willing to say that this projection is possible. But I won't say probable without more information, or more reason to say, "yes, that's the guy I want to pick."

My point about his athleticism is that his measurables are nearly off the chart in some areas. To some, that pushes up how a scout may project him. He sure looks like he should be a first round talent, based on the measurables, but he was available in the third round because he didn't produce on the field (granted, perhaps through no fault of my own).

And this last piece sends off huge red flags for me because it is historically the recipe for nearly every bad bust pick the team has ever made.

I don't want to hold that against the kid. I want to be open minded. I think I am being open minded. But I'm trying to stick with what I know and not what I think I know.

[NjRavensFan]

Yeah, I agree with most of that. I guess I lasered in on one specific portion of a much larger post that was barely related to your overall point and we wound up talking past each other a bit.

Pretty much all I have in response to that then is that my post about your comment about Harbaugh’s comment had nothing to do with college; it was about last year and this coming year in the NFL. The idea that Boykin “just need[s] to be a more consistent pass catcher in order to break out and establish himself in a key role” is not accurate, imo. He has much bigger problems, whether Harbaugh addressed them specifically or not.

I think he has a monster ceiling if the game slows down for him and if he starts playing with suddenness and physicality (both of which he has in spades, but didn’t utilize at all as a pass catcher last year). If he does that, but still has occasionally shaky catch technique, he’s in for a moderate breakout (as I believe he’s already above the Mendoza line which guys like Lasley or our version of Perriman were well below). But if he comes back next year with perfect hands, but nothing else changes, he still won’t be an impact player.

Best case scenario, of course, would be that he improves in all three areas. But he needs to be able to generate worthy targets before his hands even come into play.

[Shas]

Got it.

We see that last point a little differently, as I said earlier in the thread to Seraph. To me, consistent ability to come down with the catch is the first thing I care about, and the last thing I care about if it's not there.

Beyond that, I'm willing to talk about route running and reading defenses and playing speed and twitchiness and explosiveness and all that stuff after they guy has mastered to core skill required at his position.

I'm willing to read whatever anyone wants to write about those topics, but I am not too engaged on these questions until I feel better about the first.

Good talk.

[NjRavensFan]

Got it.

We see that last point a little differently, as I said earlier in the thread to Seraph. To me, consistent ability to come down with the catch is the first thing I care about, and the last thing I care about if it's not there.

Beyond that, I'm willing to talk about route running and reading defenses and playing speed and twitchiness and explosiveness and all that stuff after they guy has mastered to core skill required at his position.

I'm willing to read whatever anyone wants to write about those topics, but I am not too engaged on these questions until I feel better about the first.

Good talk.

I get what you’re saying. I think there’s levels to it though. Here’s how I see it. My extremely simplistic order of priorities:

1. Adequate hands. If you don’t have this, nothing else matters. Jordan Lasley failed here. Our version of Perriman failed here. So Perriman’s speed/body control/catch radius and Lasley’s speed/fluidity were irrelevant.

2. Ability to generate quality targets, whether that’s because you can separate, find the soft spot against zone, have the contested catch ability to turn 50/50 balls into 70/30 balls or whatever else. Obviously certain teams/schemes will value some of those traits over others but for simplicity’s sake I’m going to lump them all together.

3. Elite hands.

At risk of being a bit reductive, having 2 doesn’t matter if you don’t have 1, but having 3 doesn’t matter if you don’t have 2 (the reason Proche fell to day three, though I personally think he’ll be able to eat against zone, and that he should’ve gone 2-3 rounds higher).

[Shas]

Okay, I'll go with that.

Not sure where Boykin falls. If I had to guess based on all the information we just reviewed, I think he is at 1.5 and they want to get him to 2.0.

I don't think 1.5 is good enough for me if he is going to get a lot of snaps. If they can get him to 2.0 then I am happy to hear opinions on how he can play faster and smarter to go with his natural athletic gifts, to become a really valuable weapon.

To whomever earlier referenced good receivers who occasionally drop balls, I would put them in this same category, and that's okay, particularly if they bring other skills to the table. If they fall short of this level when it comes to their hands, I don't want to hear what their other skills are.

For now, I just want to focus on Miles 2.0.

[edromeo]

Miles played the X a lot and as the X he often faces the opposing teams best CB.
He didn't have the luxury of playing off the line of scrimmage as the Y or going in motion.
He wasn't the beneficiary of easy passes screen passes, quick hitting RPOs and schemed match-up vs Safeties.
Miles was asked to line-up and win, read coverage, sit or run through zones.

For a receiver that didn't play in volume passing game or run a full route tree that was a lot on his plate and could have been the reason why he wasn't playing fast and had uncharacteristic drops early in the season.
He was thinking about a lot (more then Hollywood) and when you're thinking you can't play fast or fluid.

And when you make mistakes early in the season then you can lose the faith of the offensive coordinator and the QB.
Lets say it early in the season and you are a primary read on a progression and you trying to figure out your release moves, your stem your head nod your speed turn then are you spot to keep running or settle in the void. Then the next thing you know the ball is on top of you then bomb -drop- OR you keep running instead of settling down on a drag route when the QB expects you to settle down and now the QB/OC have lost a little faith in you.

Then by the time you get everything together later on in the season the OC has stopped making you a focal point in the gameplan and even when you are in the progression the QB doesn't trust looking your way.

I think Miles has tremendous and if he can put in some hard work, build some confidence/swagger in his play and receive better more consistent opportunities he could have sophomore year surge.

[JimZipCode]

My point about his athleticism is that his measurables are nearly off the chart in some areas. To some, that pushes up how a scout may project him. He sure looks like he should be a first round talent, based on the measurables, but he was available in the third round because he didn't produce on the field (granted, perhaps through no fault of my own).

And this last piece sends off huge red flags for me because it is historically the recipe for nearly every bad bust pick the team has ever made.

I don't want to hold that against the kid...

This sounds a little like a traumatized take. It's perilously close to saying that the kid's athleticism makes him a worse prospect. It isn't quite "logical"; has more the air of a despairing Ravens-fan shaking his fist at the heavens & wondering why we can't ever have nice things.

Which, I don't mean to sound condescending whatsoever. I'm not "above that" in any way: god knows we've all been there. But it is an assumption. The kind of thing you want to verify against the tape or scouting reports.

---

Matt Waldman grades on skills he sees a player execute, not on "traits". So you read his profiles, they're full of phrases like:

...has an arsenal of moves to release from man coverage from the line. He uses swipes, double swipes, arm-overs, shakes, swims, and chops in conjunction with various foot-fire releases of one-, two-, three-, and four-steps.

or:

...varies his pacing, the turn of his head, and makes slight changes to the angle of his stems to manipulate his opponents into considering the wrong route ... specifically good at bending his stem behind the back of the coverage

It's all skills demonstrated on game tape.


For the WR skills breakdowns, Waldman describes "receiving" thus:

There are many skills to lump under the category of receiving. For the sake of establishing clear criteria, the checklist
format considers:

• The act of catching the football.
• The adjustments a player makes with the ball in the air.
• How consistently the player makes a reception given their immediate environment.

Other "skills" include Routes, Balance, Blocking, Durability, etc. For each WR "skill", he puts players in tiers: star caliber, starter caliber, committee, reserve, free-agent, and deficient.

For the 2019 draft, Waldman had:

• Zero WRs in the "Star" tier for receiving (he almost never puts a player in the star tier)
• Boykin in the "Starter" tier for that skill, along with about 35 other guys including AJ Brown & DK Metcalf & Deebo Samuel
• An equal number of guys in the next tier down, the "Committee" tier, including Marquise Brown, Mecole Hardman, Terry McLaurin, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, & Antoine Wesley. (JJAW & Mecole he put a little symbol next to, to indicate high-ceiling or skill between tiers.)

So going off the college tape, Waldman rated Boykin's catching a tier above Hollywood & McLaurin et al.

He wrote:

Boykin has excellent hands. He’s consistent with fingertip technique at the catch point, extends his arms to attack the ball at an early window of arrival, and he can adjust high, low, or away from his frame with a wide radius.

Good hand-eye coordination and fluid movements help Boykin successfully make difficult adjustments to the ball, including difficult one-handed stabs at full speed on targets that require awkward and late turns from tight coverage.
...
Boykin also shields defenders effectively and drags his feet with good technique at the boundary. Like most receivers, Boykin will have the occasional focus drop when tight coverage extends an arm across his frame. Otherwise, his hands are reliable and dynamic.

Waldman had some slight dings for Boykin on route-running. Some inconsistencies, occasional lapses with flatness of breaks on speed turns, didn't drop his weight fast enough on hard breaks. Sometimes had wrong stem length on timing routes, breaking too soon without earning proper depth. Waldman called all that "a common phase of development young receivers have to go through," and said:

None of these issues are significant enough to derail Boykin’s production potential.
More likely, he’ll experience isolated mistakes with route depth, break flatness, and not earning enough separation with hard breaks on curls, comebacks, and dig routes.

Parenthetically, that's exactly along the lines of what Edgar Allen saw in his rookie rundown on Boykin's season: issues with route-running. Specifically, slowing on his breaks, and not earning enough separation with hard breaks. So, that part of the scouting report seems to have come true.

Waldman liked Boykin overall enough to put him in his top 3 that year. He had no one in the "Star" tier, as usual. But his next tier was "Franchise Starter", players who "should be long-term pieces that teams build around." He had three players in that tier: AJ Brown, Boykin, & Hakeem Butler.

The next tier is "Starter", players "Capable of a larger role and learning on the go." Players in that tier included DK Metcalf & N'Keal Harry. Next tier after that is "Rotational Starter," players who "Execute at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths." Marquise is in that tier. It's players who "could start this year, but won’t express their fullest potential without another year or two of work. Even if they produce at a high rate, they will likely be used in ways that limit their range of use."



So: that's a deep dive into one evaluator's scouting reports.

I go into all this detail, to make one single point: you are wrong to conclude that Boykin's measurables pushed him up the draft board over his actual playing skill and catching ability. Boykin was not over-drafted due to his measurables. He was under-drafted due to his college offense (and scouting community groupthink).

---

DeCosta's drafting of WRs, despite bringing a much-needed breath of fresh air, still shows a lot of the Ozzie value-finding imperative. Except for Marquise. I'm still kinda shocked at that pick. First WR overall, and hobbled by a Lisfranc: it's hard to imagine a less Ravens pick. (I'm perhaps more shocked that it seems like he might have been worth it! Love the updates we're seeing this offseason.)
But the other guys:

• Boykin's draft stock was devalued by his low-volume offense
• Duvernay was available late due to the depth in his class; would not last to #16 at his position in most drafts

DeCosta is being as cheap as his mentor was! He's just evaluating them better (I think).

I wouldn't be surprised if DeCosta's further WR picks are "values" in a similar way. He wants speed and hands; but he still loves a bargain.

[WNCRavensFan]

DeCosta is being as cheap as his mentor was! He's just evaluating them better (I think).

I wouldn't be surprised if DeCosta's further WR picks are "values" in a similar way. He wants speed and hands; but he still loves a bargain.

Steelers are the blueprint. If you can evaluate WRs well, you don't need to spend a first round pick on them. Same for every position really except maybe QB.

They drafted Diontae Johnson in round 3. I didn't have him anywhere that high but I gave them the benefit of the doubt because I know they know WRs. And of course he goies for 680 yards and 5 TDs his rookie season with trash at QB.

[JimZipCode]

I go into all this detail, to make one single point: you are wrong to conclude that Boykin's measurables pushed him up the draft board over his actual playing skill and catching ability. Boykin was not over-drafted due to his measurables. He was under-drafted due to his college offense (and scouting community groupthink).

And yet:

I gotta believe that the very thing which devalued Boykin in the draft, simultaneously made him attractive specifically to the Ravens: his role in a "no glory" offense. He's shown a real gung-ho willingness to do the dirty work in the NFL. That was evident on his Notre Dame tape too.

In our 2019 offense, he could have a strong role as a contributor, while working out any kinks in his route running. Block like a motherfucker, occasionally shake loose for a TD, otherwise run off coverage deep. Smart way to ramp up a guy; good attitude from the player to embrace it.

[JimZipCode]

Steelers are the blueprint.
...
They drafted Diontae Johnson in round 3. I didn't have him anywhere that high but I gave them the benefit of the doubt because I know they know WRs. And of course he goies for 680 yards and 5 TDs his rookie season with trash at QB.

Their longtime WR coach died last year. I guess in the back of my mind I was kind of hoping that their ability to find receivers, might have died with him.

Shitty of me, but...

[NjRavensFan]

I’m not sold on Diontae Johnson. It took him a ton of targets to get those 680 yards

[WNCRavensFan]

Their longtime WR coach died last year. I guess in the back of my mind I was kind of hoping that their ability to find receivers, might have died with him.

Shitty of me, but...

Eh, once a person's dead you pay respects and move on.

Another thing they do in the Big Ben era, which the Ravens haven't done to such an extent until recently, is they draft WRs over and over again. They've had their busts too. Take a look:

2005 - Fred Gibson (4)
2006 - Santonio Holmes (1), Willie Reid (3)
2007 - Dallas Baker (7)
2008 - Limas Sweed (2)
2009 - Mike Wallace (3)
2010 - Emmanuel Sanders (3), Antonio Brown (6)
2011
2012 - Toney Clemons (7)
2013 - Markus Wheaton (3), Justin Brown (6)
2014 - Dri Archer (3), Martavis Bryant (4)
2015 - Sammie Coates (3)
2016 - Demarcus Ayers (7)
2017 - JuJu Smith-Schuster (2)
2018 - James Washington (2)
2019 - Diontae Johnson (3)
2020 - Chase Claypool (2)

Most of these guys didn't work out. I count 6 successes out of 16 with 3 incomplete (Washington, Johnson, Claypool).

In particular, the Steelers have drafted 14 WRs between Rds 2-4. The Ravens have drafted 9 during that span including the past three seasons in a row.