Perception of Team Need vs. Reality

**blah3** · 04-01-2020, 01:47 PM

Well considering this is only EDC second draft I don’t think you can say he has a style determined yet. Cause in his first draft everyone thought the ravens were going to target wr and rush and he did just that in his first couple of picks.

**Jesse Stovall** · 04-01-2020, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by ninetysixer

I will never forget the 2006 off season. we only had one starting safety on the roster going into the draft: Ed Reed. Ozzie waited until the 5th round to draft the other starting safety, Dwan Landry.....I remember wondering what the hell he was doing in rounds 2-4, but in the end it worked out. Sometimes you just need to trust the front office.

This is a great example! I had forgotten about that draft. But Landry in round 5 came in and filled the role they needed. I imagine the scouting department has an ILB or 2 that they like later in the draft...rounds 4-5. And a few they like as UDFAs. They won't come away from draft week without an ILB. But it will be a player they value at that pick. And Olaka could surprise us, just as Scott and Orr did.

**HotInHere** · 04-01-2020, 05:43 PM

Originally Posted by edromeo

I actually think they're both gonna be very good, i especially like Queen. But positional value for ILB isn't that high for me.
I see mocks that have both LBs getting drafted before players that I think are clearly higher rated prospects.

This organization historically has leaned more towards BPA then need philosophy, so i wouldn't be surprised at all if the Ravens 'pass' on either one if they are available in the 1st round.

I would not be surprised if they passed on them either.

But remember there is a track record in this franchise of getting good value by taking a top prospect at an undervalued position late in the first. Safety and TE were less valuable positions than they are now when we took Reed and Heap. We took a LG with Ben Grubbs. Picking late, you're not going to get the best LT or QB or CB. But you just might get the best ILB, and that's where we are right now.

I'm not sure the organization sees these guys as ILBs as much as they seem them at football players. I agree they are not looking to build their defense around either one of these guys. But if they see a very good football player that Wink can do a lot of things with, they will pull the trigger without thinking twice, regardless of the decline in value of the ILB position.

**G54377** · 04-01-2020, 06:21 PM

I think you can definitely make the argument that players presumably to be available at 28 at other positions will make more of an impact for the Ravens both in the short term and long term that Murray or Queen. I think we can get a quality ILB on day 2 or 3 who's ceiling (and floor for that matter) isn't drastically different than either Queen or Murray.

**edromeo** · 04-01-2020, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by HotInHere

I would not be surprised if they passed on them either.

But remember there is a track record in this franchise of getting good value by taking a top prospect at an undervalued position late in the first. Safety and TE were less valuable positions than they are now when we took Reed and Heap. We took a LG with Ben Grubbs. Picking late, you're not going to get the best LT or QB or CB. But you just might get the best ILB, and that's where we are right now.

I'm not sure the organization sees these guys as ILBs as much as they seem them at football players. I agree they are not looking to build their defense around either one of these guys. But if they see a very good football player that Wink can do a lot of things with, they will pull the trigger without thinking twice, regardless of the decline in value of the ILB position.

I think we are saying the same thing maybe?

Anyhow, I wasn't here so I can't speak to the details of those draft picks but depending on the talent any position could be the best player available. I am not saying that ILB position precludes their selection at 28.

I am saying that for me those guys don't grade out to me as top 32 players. And I like Queen. He might be the type of defender that allows versatility and to be more play to play adaptive. There is built in disguise in being able to keep the same personnel on the field and have them perform different assignments. So I certainly see a path to Queen being a 'focal' point for "a" defense. But, I wouldn't take Queen over some of the top DL prospects or Edge prospects or some the top DBs that could be available or one of the OTs if they drop or D'Andre Swift or Jonathan Taylor or some WRs. It is nothing against Queen or Murray, just I have the other prospects graded higher.

**Fake-punt** · 04-02-2020, 12:58 PM

I completely agree that they shouldn't draft an ILB or iOL in the first or second round. Any position that you can pick up a guy or two off the streets mid-season and have a top defense probably isn't worth much draft capital.

Also they have a glaring need at WR. So that's a problem.

I would love to see them trade back and try to pick up an extra third, and draft a wr, cb, or edge rusher.

That said I wouldn't be shocked if they took Murry at 28. He would start right away and he looks like a nasty blitzer.

I would be pretty annoyed if they traded up like the Steelers did last year. That said at least we have a QB.

**HotInHere** · 04-02-2020, 06:04 PM

Originally Posted by edromeo

I think we are saying the same thing maybe?

Anyhow, I wasn't here so I can't speak to the details of those draft picks but depending on the talent any position could be the best player available. I am not saying that ILB position precludes their selection at 28.

I am saying that for me those guys don't grade out to me as top 32 players. And I like Queen. He might be the type of defender that allows versatility and to be more play to play adaptive. There is built in disguise in being able to keep the same personnel on the field and have them perform different assignments. So I certainly see a path to Queen being a 'focal' point for "a" defense. But, I wouldn't take Queen over some of the top DL prospects or Edge prospects or some the top DBs that could be available or one of the OTs if they drop or D'Andre Swift or Jonathan Taylor or some WRs. It is nothing against Queen or Murray, just I have the other prospects graded higher.

Yeah, I think we agree.

The question is, how do THEY have other prospects graded? I think they set their board, and go by their board. How high Queen and Murray are on their board factors in the value of the position certainly.They review these guys with the coaches. I'm sure they ask Wink, "Hey, if Blacklock and Queen are both on the board, who do you like?" They get a LOT of input, and then they set their board. I have no idea where they value Queen and Murray. But it certainly wouldn't shock me if one of those guys is the top player on their board when it's their turn to pick.

It also wouldn't shock me if they did that in spite of the fact that there are guys available that some posters here have rated much higher. Sometimes we are right (*cough* Derwin James *cough) but most of the time their rankings are better than ours.

**Jesse Stovall** · 04-03-2020, 09:59 PM

I'm still going with my gut that even if Queen and/or Murray are sitting there when the Ravens are on the clock, the FO has other players rated higher. If the edge or WR prospect they like is sitting there, they will happily wait on an ILB. We can replace the production of Bynes and perhaps even get better production w/o using pick #28. I'm going to be crossing my fingers that Denzel Mims is our target and that he isn't plucked before our turn.

**bacchys** · 04-04-2020, 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by Jesse Stovall

I'm still going with my gut that even if Queen and/or Murray are sitting there when the Ravens are on the clock, the FO has other players rated higher. If the edge or WR prospect they like is sitting there, they will happily wait on an ILB. We can replace the production of Bynes and perhaps even get better production w/o using pick #28. I'm going to be crossing my fingers that Denzel Mims is our target and that he isn't plucked before our turn.

I agree with you. I don't see Queen or Murray being rated so high on the Ravens board that either is the top player available at #28. If they're inclined to draft an ILB early, they'll trade out of that spot if possible. I don't expect it, however. I think they'll take whoever is the BPA when they get there.

I won't be upset if EDC trades out of the first round if he believes he's getting more value by doing so. I don't think the team is looking at the draft to fill current holes on the team. It's great if it does, but they'll be able to find players between now and the start of the season to fill those holes. The draft is about the future of the team far more than it is this year.

**BcRaven** · 04-04-2020, 10:15 AM

Originally Posted by bacchys

I agree with you. I don't see Queen or Murray being rated so high on the Ravens board that either is the top player available at #28. If they're inclined to draft an ILB early, they'll trade out of that spot if possible. I don't expect it, however. I think they'll take whoever is the BPA when they get there.

I won't be upset if EDC trades out of the first round if he believes he's getting more value by doing so. I don't think the team is looking at the draft to fill current holes on the team. It's great if it does, but they'll be able to find players between now and the start of the season to fill those holes. The draft is about the future of the team far more than it is this year.

I don't agree with the bolded part. Even though we were one-and-done two consecutive years, I believe this team has Super Bowl aspirations right now, especially with LJ8 on his rookie contract. We did go 14 - 2 last year, so I'd imagine expectations are high. Sure you don't want to draft a player for "need" just to fill a hole if there is another higher rated at a different position. It just so happens Pass-Rush, ILB, WR, and IOL have have some pretty strong candidates for the Ravens in this draft. IMO The Future is Now... Bc

**bacchys** · 04-04-2020, 10:37 AM

I don't think you're really disagreeing. If the BPA fills a need, great, and to some extent need is part of the BPA formula, but I don't think the Ravens draft a guy rated #3 on their board when #2 is still there because they want to fill that position.

Relying on a rookie is a mistake. If one happens to push his way onto a starter's role and is a contributor, that's great, of course. But planning for the coming season before even a practice has taken place shouldn't be done with Rookie X at the top of the depth chart. IMO, anyway.

**QtR Nevermore** · 04-04-2020, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by bacchys

Relying on a rookie is a mistake. If one happens to push his way onto a starter's role and is a contributor, that's great, of course. But planning for the coming season before even a practice has taken place shouldn't be done with Rookie X at the top of the depth chart. IMO, anyway.

I think that's is largely a formality. I don't know whether Hollywood was WR1 on the depth chart last summer but he was definitely WR1 in the coachs' minds and we did go into the season intending to rely on him, as you should with most first round picks. After all, what you're really drafting is 4 (+1?) cheap years and you should aim to get the most out of that window.

If we draft a WR or ILB in the first I think they'd be pencilled in as starters even if a vet is nominally ahead of them on the depth chart. Other positions may vary.