Should Preseason be cancelled?

[Bhcforlife]

And yes, if we are still in this same situation at that point, it’s likely everything NFL will be suspended, not just the PS.

[pslholder96]

just canceled the spring sessions and MLB just ceased their season.

March Madness is going to have to cancel - that is a HUGE money maker for college, much more than football...

Especially since Duke and Kansas have pulled out......

[pslholder96]

I'm not even ready to have this discussion and still coming to terms with all of these conference tournaments, NBA getting canceled. Only a matter of time before the entire NCAA tournament gets canceled.

[QuothDaRaven]

Precedent with flu virus and other coronaviruses suggests a slowdown in the Summer, and then it comes roaring back in the Fall/Winter.

Given the lack of widespread testing availability and how slow we’ve been to establish even the most basic protocols, how late we’ve been to begin “social distancing” or quarantines, I’m not really on board with rosy projections.

Case studies for successful responses are Hong Kong and Singapore. They’ve avoided explosive outbreaks by being hyper-responsive.

From an interview with Mike Ryan, head of emergencies at the World Health Organization:

“The veteran of numerous global health crises, from SARS to bird flu to Ebola, Ryan points out that incredibly aggressive measures by China, South Korea and Japan appear to be bringing outbreaks in those countries under control.

"There's clearly an indication that a systematic government-led approach using all tactics and all elements available seems to be able to turn this disease around," he says.

He has been pleading with governments around the world to prepare for the new coronavirus before it shows up at their door — or to spring into action when it does arrive.

That's what Hong Kong and Singapore did.

Both quickly set up systems to try to identify and treat every case in their territory. Hong Kong developed diagnostic tests and rapidly deployed them to labs at every major hospital in the city. At one point in February, Hong Kong had 12,000 people in quarantine. Singapore's prime minister called for calm and assured residents that all health care related to the disease would be free.”

And that was a month ago.


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[Mista T]

Good subject. Obviously the NFL is already planning alternatives for this scenario.

A third option (to playing the games or not) would be to play the preseason games, but at the training camp fields in front of TV cameras, instead of in NFL stadiums. This option becomes the likely choice if the NFL believes that it will conduct a a regular season (with or without a live audience) in Autumn 2020 and if the coronavirus hangs around with new cases into June (resulting in low consumer confidence for live attendance in stadiums for the meaningless exhibitions) and/or if MLB is played to empty stadiums, as in the Orioles-White Sox game after the Freddy Grey riots.

[blueridgemtnman]

August is only 5 months away. Even the swine flu in 2009 lasted for over a year and coronavirus is a lot worse than that was.

Evidence of that? Link?

[JimZipCode]

Evidence of that? Link?

60 secs on Google:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...rs-zika-2020-3

The coronavirus outbreak is more severe than the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, or swine flu. That illness infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people worldwide but only had a mortality rate of 0.02%.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ics-played-out

H1N1 turned out to be milder than initially feared, causing little more than runny noses and coughs in most people. And H1N1 is now so commonplace, it’s simply seen as a part of the seasonal flus that come and go every year around the globe.

Early estimates on the fatality rate for H1N1 were much higher than the roughly 0.01 to 0.03 percent it turned out to be. Still, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that H1N1 killed 12,469 people in the United States during that first-year period from 2009 to 2010...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404

The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6.

That R0 figure is a metric for "contagiousness". Early estimates of that number for Coronavirus were between 4 and 6.3, two weeks ago. If there are a ton of mild or asymptomatic cases, it could be higher.

[QuothDaRaven]

Evidence of that? Link?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

The H1N1 or “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 had a case fatality rate of only 0.01-0.08% (COVID right now is 10-100 times that).

The CFR of COVID is going to drop as we test more people, but again the main issue here isn’t just severity of illness, it’s overwhelming an ill-prepared and strained healthcare system.


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[blueridgemtnman]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

The H1N1 or “swine flu” pandemic of 2009 had a case fatality rate of only 0.01-0.08% (COVID right now is 10-100 times that).

The CFR of COVID is going to drop as we test more people, but again the main issue here isn’t just severity of illness, it’s overwhelming an ill-prepared and strained healthcare system.


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Sorry, I don't place much credence in Wiki. You can have at it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...90O0T720130125

[QuothDaRaven]

Sorry, I don't place much credence in Wiki. You can have at it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-f...90O0T720130125

Uh... the article you quoted shows the same CFR that Wikipedia quoted. Not sure what point you’re making.

The point is the data SO FAR shows COVID-19 to have a significantly higher fatality rate than swine flu.


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[JimZipCode]

The point is the data SO FAR shows COVID-19 to have a significantly higher fatality rate than swine flu.

AND a higher infectiousness "rate".

[GOTA]

No reason to think about preseason at this point. As they get closer they'll look into it and make a decision. Most likely though if you aren't able to play in August you aren't going to be able to play in September.