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Thread: OT - coronavirus
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03-11-2020, 10:06 PM #13Hyperbolic curmudgeometer
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Re: OT - coronavirus
There was a women's soccer match today, US vs Japan, in Fresno TX, a town of 20,000 on the southern border of Houston (metro population 7,000,000). The stands were packed.
Meantime, someone in Fresno TX tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
This stuff spreads like wildfire & can be transmitted by a victim before s/he shows symptoms. And the virus can survive for several days on some surfaces. Mortality rate seems to be at least 10x that of seasonal flu, something over 1% & perhaps as high as 3%, disproportionately among us olds & those with pre-existing conditions. I saw a summary of a published scientific paper a couple of days ago that said this virus is adept at crossing the blood-brain barrier, which is weakened in the olds etc., & speculated that once there it gets into the central nervous system & interferes with the breathing reflex, which would explain why severe cases require respirators.
The (reasonably) good news is that a high percentage of people who've recovered from it appear to seroconvert, i.e., develop antibodies to it - although there are two strains running around & they don't seem to generate cross-immunity, so you might need to get it twice (& vaccines will def have to protect against both). In this way it's similar to the 1918 flu (but not in any other) & might follow the same sort of course: rip through the world this spring, ebb in the summer, return in late fall through the next winter, but vanish after that as most of the population develops immunity. If everyone on the planet gets exposed before a vaccine is developed, that might mean upwards of 70 million fatalities before it burns itself out.
(ETA: Disclaimer - when I was in my early 20s my folks rented our upstairs apartment to an elderly couple, & one winter the wife was one of the 0.1% who died from complications from seasonal flu - it developed into pneumonia & overtaxed her heart, which gave out. None of this stuff ought to be sneezed at...mmm, maybe I should rephrase that...)Last edited by lobachevsky; 03-11-2020 at 10:13 PM.
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Re: OT - coronavirus
You said what I wanted to say much better.
I'm not scared of getting sick...although I am concerned about my parents. What I am concerned about is the impact this is going to have on our healthcare system that is already strained, FULL of BS red tape, expensive, confusing to consumers and frustrating for doctors and nurses who just want to treat their patients.Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.
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03-11-2020, 10:16 PM #15
Re: OT - coronavirus
I had a cold last week and now I'm wondering if it was coronavirus. There will be some outliers, but if you're younger and in general good health it shouldn't be worse than the flu.
What is going to be worth watching is next fall/winter for a second wave that is more deadly for everyone. Spanish Flu second wave was the worst and killed a lot of younger people.
I'm worried about my father and anyone elderly catching this. I'm not worried so much about myself.Last edited by xiao_ke; 03-11-2020 at 10:31 PM. Reason: spelling
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03-11-2020, 10:21 PM #16
Re: OT - coronavirus
Valid points, but I am at high risk, and a microbiologist, but the hysteria is getting out of hand. Not saying to ignore it, but the mainstream media has painted this as the the end. MERS did't wipe us all out, nor SARS, nor Ebola, nor Marburg, etc. Take precautions, but fear is overtaking common sense. Use some common sense, and practice hygiene, and stop hoarding toilet paper and everything else! :-)
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03-11-2020, 10:23 PM #17
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03-11-2020, 10:26 PM #18
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03-11-2020, 10:28 PM #19Hyperbolic curmudgeometer
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Re: OT - coronavirus
Here's an interesting article about the second & third waves of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.
A second wave can probably be expected when colder weather returns next autumn, but SARS-CoV-2 in its current configuration doesn't trigger the "cytokine storm" that killed off so many young adults. The scary thing is, it'll probably mutate - viruses mutate all the time - & while most mutations are either harmful to the virus or have no effect on virulence, it only takes one of the bad type to survive & prosper & we are in a world of hurt.
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03-11-2020, 10:29 PM #20
Re: OT - coronavirus
Mass testing and creating conditions to isolate is the way to go.
It won't stop it and I dont think the goal is to stop it. I think it's to make it manageable. If you limit exposure you can limit the rapid incresae in cases that will stress health care systmes."Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
- Ray Lewis
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/author/cole-jackson
Twitter: @ColeJacksonFB
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03-11-2020, 10:29 PM #21
Re: OT - coronavirus
Shout out this board for having people that are far more eloquent and informed than I.
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03-11-2020, 10:29 PM #22Pro Bowl Poster
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03-11-2020, 10:31 PM #23
Re: OT - coronavirus
"Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
- Ray Lewis
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/author/cole-jackson
Twitter: @ColeJacksonFB
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03-11-2020, 10:31 PM #24
Re: OT - coronavirus
Covid-19 won’t wipe us out either, but it will sicken a lot of people. It has already proven vastly more transmissible than any of the others you mentioned, just going by the emerging data.
I do fundamentally agree with you. Hysteria, panic, and hoarding don’t help anyone.
But I also think writing it off and downplaying isn’t helpful either.
The truth is concern is valid, but panic never helps.
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