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  1. #13
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
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    Re: OT - coronavirus

    There was a women's soccer match today, US vs Japan, in Fresno TX, a town of 20,000 on the southern border of Houston (metro population 7,000,000). The stands were packed.

    Meantime, someone in Fresno TX tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

    This stuff spreads like wildfire & can be transmitted by a victim before s/he shows symptoms. And the virus can survive for several days on some surfaces. Mortality rate seems to be at least 10x that of seasonal flu, something over 1% & perhaps as high as 3%, disproportionately among us olds & those with pre-existing conditions. I saw a summary of a published scientific paper a couple of days ago that said this virus is adept at crossing the blood-brain barrier, which is weakened in the olds etc., & speculated that once there it gets into the central nervous system & interferes with the breathing reflex, which would explain why severe cases require respirators.

    The (reasonably) good news is that a high percentage of people who've recovered from it appear to seroconvert, i.e., develop antibodies to it - although there are two strains running around & they don't seem to generate cross-immunity, so you might need to get it twice (& vaccines will def have to protect against both). In this way it's similar to the 1918 flu (but not in any other) & might follow the same sort of course: rip through the world this spring, ebb in the summer, return in late fall through the next winter, but vanish after that as most of the population develops immunity. If everyone on the planet gets exposed before a vaccine is developed, that might mean upwards of 70 million fatalities before it burns itself out.

    (ETA: Disclaimer - when I was in my early 20s my folks rented our upstairs apartment to an elderly couple, & one winter the wife was one of the 0.1% who died from complications from seasonal flu - it developed into pneumonia & overtaxed her heart, which gave out. None of this stuff ought to be sneezed at...mmm, maybe I should rephrase that...)
    Last edited by lobachevsky; 03-11-2020 at 10:13 PM.





  2. #14

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by QuothDaRaven View Post
    It isn’t overblown. It is a pandemic.

    If you think it’s overblown you don’t understand the implications of a novel, dangerous, and easily transmissible pathogen into an immunologically naive population in the era of jet travel.

    Even conservative fatality rate estimates are far above influenza, and the severity of illness it’s generating in healthy people without other illnesses is significant.

    This is a serious respiratory illness in the SARS category (the virus’ actual name is SARS-CoV2, the illness it causes is Covid-19).

    If you don’t believe any of that, if you think this is “just the flu” and it’s overblown... well, flu season puts significant strain on the US health system. Covid-19 isn’t being substituted in for the flu. It’s additive. So a system already operating at close to maximal capacity with healthcare-workers getting sick now has to find dozens, hundreds, thousands of beds for patients with severe bilateral interstitial pneumonia from coronavirus? How many ventilators does your local hospital have?

    We are way behind the 8-ball. Only today they’re suspending sporting events and sending college kids home. Only today travel is being restricted. Way way way late.

    Look at China. Screening tens of thousands of people. Quarantining an entire city of 12 million people. Building entire new hospitals to deal with the sick. Now their epidemic is waning because of how fiercely aggressively they’re “social distancing.” Korea has flattened the curve through aggressive screening protocols.

    Now look at Italy. Or Iran. I’m serious, go read about it. Read about what’s happening to a healthcare system that’s overwhelmed.

    If we can “flatten the curve” and slow down transmission enough to keep from getting overwhelmed, we have a chance. Otherwise if we don’t take the right steps, when the dust settles and the pandemic is over, pretty much everyone in America will personally know someone (or know OF someone) who got severely sick or died from Covid-19.

    Vaccines and treatment regimens are in the pipeline. I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom. But I think the time to really get serious about this was more than a month ago.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    You said what I wanted to say much better.

    I'm not scared of getting sick...although I am concerned about my parents. What I am concerned about is the impact this is going to have on our healthcare system that is already strained, FULL of BS red tape, expensive, confusing to consumers and frustrating for doctors and nurses who just want to treat their patients.
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.





  3. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Maryland
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    18,827

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    What do people mean when they say it's "overblown"?

    No, it doesn't have the mortality rate that pandemics like the Spanish Flu or Black plague had back in the day...from what I've heard/read, if you are pretty healthy, you likely won't feel anything worse than what you would from the regular flu (plus respiratory issues)...but what will happen IMHO is this will absolutely overwhelm and expose our shitty healthcare system for the joke that it is. That and trade...our port as well as others around the country have been having to cut ours and shut down...unheard of considering how important our shipping terminals are to the worlds economy. And that will have a major impact on day to day life.
    I had a cold last week and now I'm wondering if it was coronavirus. There will be some outliers, but if you're younger and in general good health it shouldn't be worse than the flu.

    What is going to be worth watching is next fall/winter for a second wave that is more deadly for everyone. Spanish Flu second wave was the worst and killed a lot of younger people.

    I'm worried about my father and anyone elderly catching this. I'm not worried so much about myself.
    Last edited by xiao_ke; 03-11-2020 at 10:31 PM. Reason: spelling





  4. #16
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    Hazzard County
    Posts
    3,203

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by QuothDaRaven View Post
    It isn’t overblown. It is a pandemic.

    If you think it’s overblown you don’t understand the implications of a novel, dangerous, and easily transmissible pathogen into an immunologically naive population in the era of jet travel.

    Even conservative fatality rate estimates are far above influenza, and the severity of illness it’s generating in healthy people without other illnesses is significant.

    This is a serious respiratory illness in the SARS category (the virus’ actual name is SARS-CoV2, the illness it causes is Covid-19).

    If you don’t believe any of that, if you think this is “just the flu” and it’s overblown... well, flu season puts significant strain on the US health system. Covid-19 isn’t being substituted in for the flu. It’s additive. So a system already operating at close to maximal capacity with healthcare-workers getting sick now has to find dozens, hundreds, thousands of beds for patients with severe bilateral interstitial pneumonia from coronavirus? How many ventilators does your local hospital have?

    We are way behind the 8-ball. Only today they’re suspending sporting events and sending college kids home. Only today travel is being restricted. Way way way late.

    Look at China. Screening tens of thousands of people. Quarantining an entire city of 12 million people. Building entire new hospitals to deal with the sick. Now their epidemic is waning because of how fiercely aggressively they’re “social distancing.” Korea has flattened the curve through aggressive screening protocols.

    Now look at Italy. Or Iran. I’m serious, go read about it. Read about what’s happening to a healthcare system that’s overwhelmed.

    If we can “flatten the curve” and slow down transmission enough to keep from getting overwhelmed, we have a chance. Otherwise if we don’t take the right steps, when the dust settles and the pandemic is over, pretty much everyone in America will personally know someone (or know OF someone) who got severely sick or died from Covid-19.

    Vaccines and treatment regimens are in the pipeline. I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom. But I think the time to really get serious about this was more than a month ago.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Valid points, but I am at high risk, and a microbiologist, but the hysteria is getting out of hand. Not saying to ignore it, but the mainstream media has painted this as the the end. MERS did't wipe us all out, nor SARS, nor Ebola, nor Marburg, etc. Take precautions, but fear is overtaking common sense. Use some common sense, and practice hygiene, and stop hoarding toilet paper and everything else! :-)





  5. #17

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by DrUnk View Post
    No shit! I didn't want to retire anyhow...
    I did, 3 months from now. Fortunately, our retirement savings have been gradually shifted to less volatile investments over the past several years. But we still might delay it.





  6. #18
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
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    Hazzard County
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    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by moose10101 View Post
    I did, 3 months from now. Fortunately, our retirement savings have been gradually shifted to less volatile investments over the past several years. But we still might delay it.
    I'm more concerned about my 401, or what's left of it...





  7. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
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    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by xiao_ke View Post
    What is going to be worth watching is next fall/winter for a second wave that is more deadly for everyone. Spanish Fly second wave was the worst and killed a lot of younger people.
    Here's an interesting article about the second & third waves of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic.

    A second wave can probably be expected when colder weather returns next autumn, but SARS-CoV-2 in its current configuration doesn't trigger the "cytokine storm" that killed off so many young adults. The scary thing is, it'll probably mutate - viruses mutate all the time - & while most mutations are either harmful to the virus or have no effect on virulence, it only takes one of the bad type to survive & prosper & we are in a world of hurt.





  8. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
    Posts
    30,965

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Mass testing and creating conditions to isolate is the way to go.

    It won't stop it and I dont think the goal is to stop it. I think it's to make it manageable. If you limit exposure you can limit the rapid incresae in cases that will stress health care systmes.
    "Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
    - Ray Lewis

    https://www.baltimoreravens.com/author/cole-jackson

    Twitter: @ColeJacksonFB





  9. #21

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Shout out this board for having people that are far more eloquent and informed than I.





  10. #22

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by DrUnk View Post
    Valid points, but I am at high risk, and a microbiologist, but the hysteria is getting out of hand. Not saying to ignore it, but the mainstream media has painted this as the the end. MERS did't wipe us all out, nor SARS, nor Ebola, nor Marburg, etc. Take precautions, but fear is overtaking common sense. Use some common sense, and practice hygiene, and stop hoarding toilet paper and everything else! :-)
    I’m more in agreement with this take. There’s only so much that I can do. I’ll take the necessary precautions and control what I can, but I’m not gonna freak out and buy into the alarmist hysteria doom & gloom that’s dominating the news.





  11. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
    Posts
    30,965

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by NjRavensFan View Post
    Shout out this board for having people that are far more eloquent and informed than I.
    I do work at the Public Health Agency of Canada in the Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control lol.
    "Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
    - Ray Lewis

    https://www.baltimoreravens.com/author/cole-jackson

    Twitter: @ColeJacksonFB





  12. #24

    Re: OT - coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by DrUnk View Post
    Valid points, but I am at high risk, and a microbiologist, but the hysteria is getting out of hand. Not saying to ignore it, but the mainstream media has painted this as the the end. MERS did't wipe us all out, nor SARS, nor Ebola, nor Marburg, etc. Take precautions, but fear is overtaking common sense. Use some common sense, and practice hygiene, and stop hoarding toilet paper and everything else! :-)
    Covid-19 won’t wipe us out either, but it will sicken a lot of people. It has already proven vastly more transmissible than any of the others you mentioned, just going by the emerging data.

    I do fundamentally agree with you. Hysteria, panic, and hoarding don’t help anyone.

    But I also think writing it off and downplaying isn’t helpful either.

    The truth is concern is valid, but panic never helps.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk





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