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  1. #25

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by blah3 View Post
    And as much as people complain about the deficit, on both sides of the aisle, Im sure hes gonna get beat up on this by the media
    If I was a single issue candidate I'd push to balance the budget and cut into the Nat Debt. I doubt we'd see sovereign debt crisis in our time but I'd like to avoid becoming the next Zimbabwe...





  2. #26

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by BuryRaven View Post
    Thanks dude.

    I studied under Sowell, I know krugman (he hates me irl lol) and I'm close with Shapiro, its a long story on that.
    I think its criminal how people like, my favorite economist of all time, FA Hayek are barely known among college kids. Econ is almost a lost science due to politicization of the field, any concept of low taxes (right wing) any concept of increased taxes on x (left wing). I wish ideas were more open and less 100% one or the other.

    If anyone has econ based ideas (not stocks for god sakes lmk)
    I always enjoy when you post down here. I learn a lot and some goes right over my head, I'm afraid, but keep them coming.





  3. #27

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by CarrollCoRaven View Post
    I always enjoy when you post down here. I learn a lot and some goes right over my head, I'm afraid, but keep them coming.
    Thanks man. Any issue you are not 100% on please let me know I'm more than willing to offer at least my perspective on said issue. Economics is highly politicized but there are so many ways to cut through the noise and find answers.





  4. #28

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by darb72 View Post
    I'd introduce my classes to some of your ideas, but it's a stretch to go from Piers Plowman to Hayek.
    Oh man, isn't Plowman a guy critiquing social life in the 14th cent UK? If I remember, and this was grade school long ago, he was the origination of the tales of robin hood? Which somehow became steal from the rich give to the poor instead of end the corrupt overzealous government and get the tax guy off my back lol.





  5. #29

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by BuryRaven View Post
    Oh man, isn't Plowman a guy critiquing social life in the 14th cent UK? If I remember, and this was grade school long ago, he was the origination of the tales of robin hood? Which somehow became steal from the rich give to the poor instead of end the corrupt overzealous government and get the tax guy off my back lol.
    One of the original medieval dream-scape narratives about living a good Christian life. Robin Hood is more a response to King John being a flat out terrible king.
    "A moron, a rapist, and a Pittsburgh Steeler walk into a bar. He sits down and says, Hi Im Ben may I have a drink please?
    ProFootballMock





  6. #30
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Upper Marlboro, MD
    Posts
    652

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    I agree that the economy grew under Obama. People will draw their own conclusions but the truth is that Obama was president while we climbed out of a national disaster from the Housing Crisis. I saw another post about Bush's tax cuts, and I actually agree... he did a very stupid thing when he was just giving money back in the form of a return instead of lowering the marginal rates on a quarterly basis. It created shortages at years end because instead of increased ability to gain capital throughout the year, companies and individuals were holding on spending until they got their check and then made one BIG purchase rather than improvements all year long, and it kept the market flat. Cutting the actual rate has actually increased federal revenues current-state, so to say that the tax cut is creating deficit when it is actually eliminating it is absurd. Revenues rose after the last tax cut... it is just that spending grew faster. Our country has a spending problem... any obfuscation of that point is a lie.

    Also, the writer doesn't take into account many factors such as what was going on at the time. Had Obama not had ANY growth, he would have been chased out of office with torches and pitchforks because that's all we could have afforded. The economy was in the TANK. People also forget that Obama was a sitting president over one of the largest technological inventions in history since the internet... smart phones. Think of that for a moment... remember what happened when the internet hit? The market EXPLODED. Small businesses popped up overnight and grew to revenues never imagined. Did we get that kind of growth in the economy? No... we did not. Why? Multiple reasons.. people weren't making enough money to buy them freely off the start which isn't Obama's fault. What WAS Obama's fault was the increased regulations that kept any real growth from happening. Regulations create strangleholds on innovation, and only solidifies monopolistic entities. Facebook went from being one of several social media sites... then came the regulations... how many new ones have there been to challenge FB and Twitter since? None really because the regulations are only afforded by these mega-companies now. If there was an innovation like that in the current market... the economy would absolutely explode.

    Also... GDP growth having dips that late in the Obama presidency is a TERRIBLE indicator. Production was decreasing under him late in his presidency when he supposedly "fixed" the crash. Those are AWFUL indicators.

    Now you look at Trump's numbers and they don't seem so impressive except that is false too. Unemployment for one. It doesn't look that impressive on a graph but we are talking about being, not only under 4%, but with a growing number of people returning to the labor market. That isn't just impressive... it is f'ing unbelievable, and never been done before.

    The non-farm Payroll Job Growth is a VERY misleading graph. It is "Change in thousands from previous quarter"... not percentage growth??? Not Overall??? Why? Because that graph would look VERY different and show an accelerated increase since 2017 because adding thousands quarter over quarter in a saturated market is impressive.

    Same with the wage growth... it is over previous quarter... nobody measures it like that... certainly not for a 20 year graph because it doesn't make sense to measure it that way.

    Also, as for median incomes... they did rise under Obama... I certainly am not disputing that fact. But once again... try actually looking at the values of that graph... why not do THAT one quarterly? Their date points for data are really weird... was that annual? Bi-Annual? Why are so many data points so close to each other towards the end? Household median incomes in 2016 were $59,039... this graph is showing them to be ~$62,000??? Even adjusting for inflation this graph would be wildly inaccurate... here is the Census Bureau data if you don't believe me: https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...s-fell-in-2016

    I knew this last one looked REALLY off because I knew that they had grown substantially in 2017 and that they weren't over $60k until at least the latter half of 2017... this graph shows them two years early, and also gives Obama an extra datapoint... it is weird. That was an easy one to spot for me, and if I had time, I'd question the validity of a LOT of these graphs.
    Great analysis. I'm not as informed as you are, but your take is very balanced. Thanks for the link. I like reading things.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk





  7. #31

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by blah3 View Post
    Please stop with the mindless commentary that tax cuts cause deficits
    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    Spending remains out of control.
    https://www.cnsnews.com/article/wash...hrough-january

    Despite huge tax cuts, government collected record taxes in first 4 months of Fiscal 2020. Second highest tax collection was 2018. Hmmm....

    Government also set record in spending.

    So which side should be addressed to reduce national debt?

    Not surprisingly largest areas of spend were Social Security, Medicare, Defense (in that order). We're spending more on interest than we are on Veterans and Education combined.





  8. #32
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    931

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by BuryRaven View Post
    Thanks dude.

    I studied under Sowell, I know krugman (he hates me irl lol) and I'm close with Shapiro, its a long story on that.
    I think its criminal how people like, my favorite economist of all time, FA Hayek are barely known among college kids. Econ is almost a lost science due to politicization of the field, any concept of low taxes (right wing) any concept of increased taxes on x (left wing). I wish ideas were more open and less 100% one or the other.

    If anyone has econ based ideas (not stocks for god sakes lmk)
    I don't know if I've ever seen you post down here, but you are amazing. I'd love it if you corrected anything that I've previously posted... I'm not perfect. I have (in my opinion) a "better than most" grasp of economics but I have to say that you definitely win out on me here.

    Two things that I hate are generalizations made by politicians and the media:
    1. That government "creates jobs": Yes, the Federal Government can initialize a project that a contractor can be hired for, and if the job is big enough, they may hire temporary workers for that project. So, in a way... SOME jobs are created. That being said... had the Fed NOT done the project, those workers still had projects and jobs for the most part. I'll admit that if the government completely stopped spending on these projects, that there are a LOT of companies that would go out of business and jobs would be lost... there is a medium (just like tax cuts affect revenues) where government project spending could actually be reduced and it would actually create more jobs in the free market.

    2. Infrastructure Spending creates economic booms: This is a WILD generalization. Are we talking about repairing a bridge, or are we talking about an airport? There are areas where it would reduce jobs... what if they built a hydro-electric dam? While people might be hired to work that dam, others in the energy sector would be let go. There are offsets in every action. I like to think of everything government as doing has an effect of 7. For every positive net gain they enact, you typically can link back 7 net losses in other categories that are adversely affected.

    I'd like your thoughts on this.
    "Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else." -Margaret Mead





  9. #33
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    931

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by BPF2 View Post
    https://www.cnsnews.com/article/wash...hrough-january

    Despite huge tax cuts, government collected record taxes in first 4 months of Fiscal 2020. Second highest tax collection was 2018. Hmmm....

    Government also set record in spending.

    So which side should be addressed to reduce national debt?

    Not surprisingly largest areas of spend were Social Security, Medicare, Defense (in that order). We're spending more on interest than we are on Veterans and Education combined.
    Social Security should be eliminated. It sucks that nobody could ever run on that, and it would be political suicide, but it has never been anything more than a ponzi scheme. It is why Pensions fail... they are unsustainable... We need to cut our losses and move on from that system. Bush, early on, had a decent proposal to have savings accounts that would be put into 401k accounts and take government out as the middle man... it would have caused a massive injection of capital into the market... revenues to government would have shot up dramatically... our deficit would have been eliminated insanely fast at the time. It was voted down in congress in 2001. The current economic landscape today would have looked way different.
    "Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else." -Margaret Mead





  10. #34
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Clayton,NC
    Posts
    15,697

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by BuryRaven View Post
    If I was a single issue candidate I'd push to balance the budget and cut into the Nat Debt. I doubt we'd see sovereign debt crisis in our time but I'd like to avoid becoming the next Zimbabwe...
    Trumps most recent budget does cut spending and puts us on path to a balanced budget.

    I had a friend say he would get attacked for it. And while he hasn't been directly, I'm seeing stories like "Trump proposes 19% cut to CDC in the midst of Coronavirus".
    "Don't let your happiness depend on something you may lose." - C.S. Lewis





  11. #35

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    I don't know if I've ever seen you post down here, but you are amazing. I'd love it if you corrected anything that I've previously posted... I'm not perfect. I have (in my opinion) a "better than most" grasp of economics but I have to say that you definitely win out on me here.

    Two things that I hate are generalizations made by politicians and the media:
    1. That government "creates jobs": Yes, the Federal Government can initialize a project that a contractor can be hired for, and if the job is big enough, they may hire temporary workers for that project. So, in a way... SOME jobs are created. That being said... had the Fed NOT done the project, those workers still had projects and jobs for the most part. I'll admit that if the government completely stopped spending on these projects, that there are a LOT of companies that would go out of business and jobs would be lost... there is a medium (just like tax cuts affect revenues) where government project spending could actually be reduced and it would actually create more jobs in the free market.

    2. Infrastructure Spending creates economic booms: This is a WILD generalization. Are we talking about repairing a bridge, or are we talking about an airport? There are areas where it would reduce jobs... what if they built a hydro-electric dam? While people might be hired to work that dam, others in the energy sector would be let go. There are offsets in every action. I like to think of everything government as doing has an effect of 7. For every positive net gain they enact, you typically can link back 7 net losses in other categories that are adversely affected.

    I'd like your thoughts on this.
    1. Yes the government can create jobs. However, this is once one largely ignores the net jobs vs the gross jobs debate. Essentially, individuals hired by the federal or state govt are just as likely to be hired in the private sector and jobs programs require either reallocation of budget funds or a new influx of funds (taxes). Therefore, the ultimate point and this is consistent since the 30's is when government hires taxes increase in lagging factors, sometimes direct ways ala direct tax hike to promote job growth (state). The issue here is that, and I agree with Vedder and Galloway, every rise in federal/state jobs extract economic rent from the tax payers. This is essentially an efficiency argument, I can elaborate more if needed.

    2. This is a wild generalization I can agree. Look at ISPs between 93 and 2013 less than 2% of the population HAD access to the internet and by 2013 just under 2% didn't already HAVE access (essentially no ISP serving their primary residence). This was done with organic market growth and demand for a product. This was efficient and created loads of jobs not to mention access to the internet that revolutionized how people lived. The TVA for example provided rural electrification in the TV area, it provided around 13k employees work yet through eminent domain it displaced 15,654 people from their homes (#s from Ed Best of the TVA corp library). William Chandler noted that the bordering states of the TVA area versus the one's that had federally provided electricity saw far better economic outcomes, in the 50 years since the project econ growth in bordering states equaled or surpassed the growth within the Tennessee Valley. This is usually noted due to the same level of economic growth and activity before the TVA initiative.

    Let me know if this all makes sense.
    Last edited by BuryRaven; 02-14-2020 at 06:51 PM. Reason: wording was poor, apologies





  12. #36

    Re: The Economy - Bush, Obama, Trump

    Quote Originally Posted by BPF2 View Post
    https://www.cnsnews.com/article/wash...hrough-january

    Despite huge tax cuts, government collected record taxes in first 4 months of Fiscal 2020. Second highest tax collection was 2018. Hmmm....

    Government also set record in spending.

    So which side should be addressed to reduce national debt?

    Not surprisingly largest areas of spend were Social Security, Medicare, Defense (in that order). We're spending more on interest than we are on Veterans and Education combined.
    This is where I believe the Laffer Curve is proven correct. Greater GDP and velocity seems to increase govt outlays (tax coming in) at nearly a 100% mark. Ideally spending is addressed whilst taxes are lowered, this would combat deficits and overall debt twofold.





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