Trade Lamar

**synthesis2** · 12-12-2019, 11:09 AM

Just wanted to have a thread for all of you that think I’m nuts to suggest it. And a thread I can come back to a year or two down the road (which was what I had said before) and most everyone called me nuts, crazy etc.

I want him to stay healthy and hopefully win us a super bowl but I think after this year his appeal will never be as high as it is now and some team would be willing to give up the farm (3-1sts is my guess) and we are set long term.

I know this is a very unpopular opinion but I just don’t see him ever replicating anything close to this year again. I’d love to be wrong and him win us several championships but I just don’t see it happening.

I just can’t believe not one fan feels this way. Gooo Ravens !!!

**GreatWhiteNorthRaven** · 12-12-2019, 11:10 AM

Well this is going to go well.

**blueridgemtnman** · 12-12-2019, 11:15 AM

Originally Posted by GreatWhiteNorthRaven

Well this is going to go well.

Well.....maybe we can trade he and Tucker for like, I don't know.....85 first round picks? Think of the possibilities!!

**cec327** · 12-14-2019, 11:58 PM

Originally Posted by blueridgemtnman

Well.....maybe we can trade he and Tucker for like, I don't know.....85 first round picks? Think of the possibilities!!

And we could hire Freddy Kitchen to coach those picks.

**Shrubbs** · 12-12-2019, 11:11 AM

Even if Lamar gets catastrophically injured and never is the same again it is never a good idea to trade a bona fide MVP caliber QB. Never. We have a championship roster right now, we have to ride the wave and get as many championships as possible. This is frankly a ridiculous thing to say, and no hindsight is going to change that.

**@SumthingObvious** · 12-12-2019, 11:15 AM

With the QB classes the next two years.... if I’m a bad team... couldn’t I use my current pick(s) to take a Trevor, Tua, Burrow etc.

It’s not just Lamar... it’s the entire offense that was built to make him excel... trio of TE’s... Greg Roman...

3 1sts... great... who are we taking? Who are you inserting into the role based on the offense you just built?

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**JimZipCode** · 12-12-2019, 11:16 AM

So, to bring in my comment from the other thread: this is a "sustainability" argument and a "moneyball" argument. The theory is that Lamar cannot sustain this style of play for more than (say) another year. So, if we win it all this year, Lamar's value will never be higher than it is right "now" (ie this offseason). So we should monetize it: cash in, take the draft picks and run.

The disproof would be if we win it all twice with Lamar; or if Lamar has another season or two of MVP-caliber performance. Right? If Lamar wins it all twice; or if he is again around top-5 or top-7 in the MVP discussion this time next year or the year after: then that would prove that trading Lamar was a bad idea.

Agreed?

**synthesis2** · 12-12-2019, 03:20 PM

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

So, to bring in my comment from the other thread: this is a "sustainability" argument and a "moneyball" argument. The theory is that Lamar cannot sustain this style of play for more than (say) another year. So, if we win it all this year, Lamar's value will never be higher than it is right "now" (ie this offseason). So we should monetize it: cash in, take the draft picks and run.

The disproof would be if we win it all twice with Lamar; or if Lamar has another season or two of MVP-caliber performance. Right? If Lamar wins it all twice; or if he is again around top-5 or top-7 in the MVP discussion this time next year or the year after: then that would prove that trading Lamar was a bad idea.

Agreed?

Yes finally someone (not saying you agree) that gets where I’m coming from. If Lamar was a true arm talent that would sustain for 8 plus years this entire argument is silly. But my point is , with as much fun as I’m having this year and the hopes we win the Super Bowl I’m also a realist and understand that his shelf life is limited and he will be figured out the more and more defenses understand what we are doing.

I agree with you in that winning two super bowls with Lamar then I’m 100% wrong and would face the music and plead for forgiveness but I feel 99% confident this isn’t going to happen.

I could go they the draft and find players that would be great fits but if we have two first round picks for the next three years with our draft brass I feel very confident we will get some amazing players and not be good for this year and maybe next , but for 10 plus years being Super Bowl contenders .

**Noelle18** · 12-12-2019, 03:25 PM

Originally Posted by synthesis2

Yes finally someone (not saying you agree) that gets where I’m coming from. If Lamar was a true arm talent that would sustain for 8 plus years this entire argument is silly. But my point is , with as much fun as I’m having this year and the hopes we win the Super Bowl I’m also a realist and understand that his shelf life is limited and he will be figured out the more and more defenses understand what we are doing.

I agree with you in that winning two super bowls with Lamar then I’m 100% wrong and would face the music and plead for forgiveness but I feel 99% confident this isn’t going to happen.

I could go they the draft and find players that would be great fits but if we have two first round picks for the next three years with our draft brass I feel very confident we will get some amazing players and not be good for this year and maybe next , but for 10 plus years being Super Bowl contenders .

Wow the one percenters .Go Ravens

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**Money227** · 12-12-2019, 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by synthesis2

Yes finally someone (not saying you agree) that gets where I’m coming from. If Lamar was a true arm talent that would sustain for 8 plus years this entire argument is silly. But my point is , with as much fun as I’m having this year and the hopes we win the Super Bowl I’m also a realist and understand that his shelf life is limited and he will be figured out the more and more defenses understand what we are doing.

I agree with you in that winning two super bowls with Lamar then I’m 100% wrong and would face the music and plead for forgiveness but I feel 99% confident this isn’t going to happen.

I could go they the draft and find players that would be great fits but if we have two first round picks for the next three years with our draft brass I feel very confident we will get some amazing players and not be good for this year and maybe next , but for 10 plus years being Super Bowl contenders .

Forget all this. Everything is hypothetical and not worth debating. This is what you are completely missing:

Lamar Jackson has already become a huge star in the NFL. He very likely will become the face of the NFL. Do you have any idea what that's worth to the Ravens' organization? Lamar Jackson isn't going anywhere.

**John Reglarperson** · 12-12-2019, 03:54 PM

Originally Posted by Money227

Forget all this. Everything is hypothetical and not worth debating. This is what you are completely missing:

Lamar Jackson has already become a huge star in the NFL. He very likely will become the face of the NFL. Do you have any idea what that's worth to the Ravens' organization? Lamar Jackson isn't going anywhere.

I don't think that the NFL wants Lamar to be the face of the NFL.

The NFL has been saying over and over that "The NFL is a passing league". I could be wrong.

The following could happen. Lamar slips up a little bit and Lamar is attacked from all sides by people who are probably paid to attack Lamar.

I agree that Lamar should be the MVP this year based on what we've seen so far, and if the Ravens have run game wrinkles in reserve to use if the top teams they play are able to stop the run stuff the Ravens have seen, they should win the Super Bowl. And next year too. But that doesn't mean that the NFL is going to entirely embrace the running QB, despite the fact that there are as many running QBs sitting on the bench or not in the NFL or playing WR or RB or TE as there are Greg Romans who can build a system to use them. I'd like the NFL to take the position that QBs can win games by running or passing or both, and the lack of ability to run is a flaw that some QBs have. But we'll just have to see what happens there.

**John Reglarperson** · 12-12-2019, 04:53 PM

Originally Posted by synthesis2

Yes finally someone (not saying you agree) that gets where I’m coming from. If Lamar was a true arm talent that would sustain for 8 plus years this entire argument is silly. But my point is , with as much fun as I’m having this year and the hopes we win the Super Bowl I’m also a realist and understand that his shelf life is limited and he will be figured out the more and more defenses understand what we are doing.

I agree with you in that winning two super bowls with Lamar then I’m 100% wrong and would face the music and plead for forgiveness but I feel 99% confident this isn’t going to happen.

I could go they the draft and find players that would be great fits but if we have two first round picks for the next three years with our draft brass I feel very confident we will get some amazing players and not be good for this year and maybe next , but for 10 plus years being Super Bowl contenders .

I disagree with so many of your specifics.

"If Lamar was a true arm talent that would sustain for 8 plus years this entire argument is silly."

The Ravens are not crushing it because Lamar is or isn't a true arm talent. The NFL is full of expensive vet QBs with true arm talent that aren't crushing it despite their true arm talent. Stafford and Ryan both have true arm talent. True arm talent isn't particularly rare. And really expensive vet QBs with true arm talent aren't rare either.

"his shelf life is limited and he will be figured out the more and more defenses understand what we are doing."

No, his shelf life isn't limited by the ability of defenses to figure out and understand. Lamar presents a run threat, that, when combined with the ability of the rest of the offense to run and block presents physical matchup problems. It could be argued that Lamar's shelf life could, in theory, be limited by Lamar's physical ability to run at a very high level. I would expect that Lamar's ability to pass well would increase in the coming years, but at some point his ability to run would diminish. Defenses are not built to stop extremely potent running games. And the Ravens have an extremely potent running game. Defenses, physically, just cannot stop what the Ravens have. It's not an intellectual problem, but a physical one. And teams are not going to retool their defenses to stop the Ravens when most other teams are still trying to figure out ways to throw to 6 wrs instead of just 5. The Ravens are zigging when others are zagging, and defenses just can't stop that.

I think you were wrong in suggesting that the Ravens should consider trading Lamar until the time when Lamar starts to think that maybe he should get $30+ Million a year right now. Lamar is cheap now, and the fact that he's on his rookie contract makes the economics work. It just might not work as well when Lamar gets $30+ Million a year. Lamar does deserve that $30+ Million, especially with Super Bowl wins, and I think that 99% confident is BS. Brady won 3 of the last 5 years. I don't think it's at all far-fetched to think that the Ravens can win this year and next. Much better chance than 1% that the Ravens win this year and next, I'd say better than 10% chance they win this year and next.

Build the ultimate run offense. Or, tweak and improve the ultimate run offense.

My argument is that the Ravens can get a lesser running QB for less than $30+ Million a year, and run that guy to the maximum, and win. The Ravens are about to match last years record with Lamar. Match. Lamar was not as good as passer last year as this. But Lamar ran more often last year. Wins. I suspect that a Lamar replace could get the same wins. Or, a Lamar replace or a fleet of run great pass ok running QBs replaces can get to the playoffs, and then, in the playoffs, will be able to throw out enough new run game wrinkles to win the necessary number of games in the playoffs to get the Super Bowl. If any team just did flexbone triple option after not doing that in the regular season, no defense will be able to stop that immediately. That's a win. And then something different the next game, another win, etc. Win the Super Bowl.

I don't think the Ravens trade Lamar. Fans would be too pissed. That first huge contract is a reward for a job well done when that QB was cheap. Teams generally don't win as much when the QB is getting paid big $$$. If you want a dynasty, you crank out, train and trade for big picks a series of running QBs. You have a roster with a lot of them, and they come in cheap and go out expensive.

Not saying that Lamar isn't the best of them all, either. But I'm saying that you don't need the best of them all to win.

I'll say that my thinking is right. My thinking is almost always right. It's tricky to find me missing on these things. However, the Ravens have gotten themselves into a tricky position where Lamar is looking like a bonafide star, and generally, as others have argued, profit making bonafide stars are generally players you want to keep.

What I think probably happens is 1) the Super Bowl winning era. then 2) Lamar signs huge contract and 3) Greg Roman leaves then 4) Greg Roman (maybe, possibly) builds a similar offense but one that doesn't have just one star QB, but a bunch of cheap running QBs who are generally disposable and 5) Lamar runs less, passes more and the Ravens offense increasingly resembles a generic NFL offense, Lamar doesn't run quite as well because he's older and has a lot of miles, but he's gotten better and better at passing, and the Ravens have results that are satisfactory over the course of years.

That I think is the most likely outcome. I don't think Greg Roman wants to preside of the genericification of the Ravens offense over the course of years, especially if there are Super Bowl wins under his belt and some team gives him carte blanche to add 6 running QBs for his Heisman package type of thing. Next man up at the QB spot is an innovation.