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  1. #13

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by SpaceCityRaven View Post
    While I agree that lots of elements of conservatism would benefit the black community, this notion that the right is gaining their support is laughable.

    This creeps up just about every year where a site like The Federalist (a site I enjoy BTW) shows one poll where there been an uptick in GOP support and all of a sudden it’s the beginning of the end for Dems.

    Funny that some who dismiss polls out of hand when the news isn’t in their favor all of a sudden claim them as gospel when the news is even remotely good. A honest look at the aggregate polling on the topic clearly shows there’s been little change when it comes to the black vote. They’re not going to move towards Trump.

    Let’s see how the next election shakes out. I’d be willing to bet money to charity that there won’t be more than a +/- 5% change in the black vote when Trump is concerned.
    Trump, prior to even being president, captured more of the Black Vote than McCain or Romney, and was about equal with Bush. The biggest difference is that after Bush was elected, in his reelection, he got LESS votes, and his popularity among minorities slipped. Not only is Trump polling WAY higher with minorities, but he already had a fast start with them. I'm not certain I'd qualify that as "laughable". Is he going to get a majority of them? No. But I bet he gets pretty close to 20%... if if he does that, then there is zero chance for Democrats in the upcoming elections.

    I'll go on record and bet you $20 he shows up 10 points higher on his reelection than he did in his first... care to make that wager?
    "Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else." -Margaret Mead





  2. #14

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    Trump, prior to even being president, captured more of the Black Vote than McCain or Romney, and was about equal with Bush. The biggest difference is that after Bush was elected, in his reelection, he got LESS votes, and his popularity among minorities slipped. Not only is Trump polling WAY higher with minorities, but he already had a fast start with them. I'm not certain I'd qualify that as "laughable". Is he going to get a majority of them? No. But I bet he gets pretty close to 20%... if if he does that, then there is zero chance for Democrats in the upcoming elections.

    I'll go on record and bet you $20 he shows up 10 points higher on his reelection than he did in his first... care to make that wager?
    I looked it up... he got 8% in 2016 of the black vote. I'm betting he gets 18% or higher. You in? I'm pretty confident that he will pull it off... gallup is the only poll that doesn't have him tracking in double digits right now.
    "Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else." -Margaret Mead





  3. Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    I looked it up... he got 8% in 2016 of the black vote. I'm betting he gets 18% or higher. You in? I'm pretty confident that he will pull it off... gallup is the only poll that doesn't have him tracking in double digits right now.
    I think he'll do that, no problem...





  4. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2018
    Location
    The Netherlands
    Posts
    536

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    Trump, prior to even being president, captured more of the Black Vote than McCain or Romney, and was about equal with Bush. The biggest difference is that after Bush was elected, in his reelection, he got LESS votes, and his popularity among minorities slipped. Not only is Trump polling WAY higher with minorities, but he already had a fast start with them. I'm not certain I'd qualify that as "laughable". Is he going to get a majority of them? No. But I bet he gets pretty close to 20%... if if he does that, then there is zero chance for Democrats in the upcoming elections.

    I'll go on record and bet you $20 he shows up 10 points higher on his reelection than he did in his first... care to make that wager?
    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    I looked it up... he got 8% in 2016 of the black vote. I'm betting he gets 18% or higher. You in? I'm pretty confident that he will pull it off... gallup is the only poll that doesn't have him tracking in double digits right now.
    Yep, I am in on >18% of the black vote in 2020 .... but we cannot use any one poll. I'll do the bet if its an aggregate polling service (more accurate and eliminates much of the bias on both sides) like RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, etc.

    I'd prefer 538 since they also grade the various polling services on bias and adjust.

    Man, this is stealing candy from a baby. Just go ahead and make the check out to St Jude's Childrens Hospital now and post date it.





  5. #17

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by SpaceCityRaven View Post
    Yep, I am in on >18% of the black vote in 2020 .... but we cannot use any one poll. I'll do the bet if its an aggregate polling service (more accurate and eliminates much of the bias on both sides) like RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, etc.

    I'd prefer 538 since they also grade the various polling services on bias and adjust.

    Man, this is stealing candy from a baby. Just go ahead and make the check out to St Jude's Childrens Hospital now and post date it.
    I donate to St. Jude's often. When I beat cancer, I had a party where it was $20/person to attend plus donations. We used some of the money to get beer and food but ultimately ended up donating nearly $1,000 to them. Such an amazing organization. I had thyroid cancer, so there wasn't much point in donating money to that, and all I could think about was, "If this had been it... my ticket, I've lived an awesome life... went to college, seen tons of the world, married, good job, good life, great friends" Then I thought about the kids who experience NONE of that, and it just made me profoundly sad and empathetic... I've been a donor ever since
    It's on man... Also, they have pretty decent, and commonly accepted numbers. I will go with 538, but not RealClear.
    "Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else." -Margaret Mead





  6. #18

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by DitkasSausage View Post
    I donate to St. Jude's often. When I beat cancer, I had a party where it was $20/person to attend plus donations. We used some of the money to get beer and food but ultimately ended up donating nearly $1,000 to them. Such an amazing organization. I had thyroid cancer, so there wasn't much point in donating money to that, and all I could think about was, "If this had been it... my ticket, I've lived an awesome life... went to college, seen tons of the world, married, good job, good life, great friends" Then I thought about the kids who experience NONE of that, and it just made me profoundly sad and empathetic... I've been a donor ever since
    It's on man... Also, they have pretty decent, and commonly accepted numbers. I will go with 538, but not RealClear.
    Pretty fulfilling life, and you didn’t even mention the sausage empire





  7. #19

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Vlad the lad View Post
    Pretty fulfilling life, and you didn’t even mention the sausage empire
    Sausage King of Chicago my friend... Abe Froman...
    "Always remember that you are absolutely unique. Just like everyone else." -Margaret Mead





  8. #20

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    If Warren, Buttegieg, Biden or any other Centrist Democrat is the nominee, Trump will win in a landslide. If Bernie or somehow Yang gets the nomination, young black people and black women will support those two in droves. Black people that will vote for the Trump would probably be older black people.





  9. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Frederick, MD
    Posts
    61,272
    Blog Entries
    4

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by bandc View Post
    If Warren, Buttegieg, Biden or any other Centrist Democrat is the nominee, Trump will win in a landslide. If Bernie or somehow Yang gets the nomination, young black people and black women will support those two in droves. Black people that will vote for the Trump would probably be older black people.
    Maybe, but Blexit is definitely geared towards younger Black Americans.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Disclaimer: The content posted is of my own opinion.





  10. Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by wickedsolo View Post
    Maybe, but Blexit is definitely geared towards younger Black Americans.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Gaining quite a bit of traction, too, it seems. I've been following it awhile, along w/the walkaway one.





  11. #23

    Re: President Trump and Black Voters

    Quote Originally Posted by blueridgemtnman View Post
    Gaining quite a bit of traction, too, it seems. I've been following it awhile, along w/the walkaway one.
    I love seeing the younger generation waking up to how evil democrats are.
    "A moron, a rapist, and a Pittsburgh Steeler walk into a bar. He sits down and says, “Hi I’m Ben may I have a drink please?”
    ProFootballMock





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