Win next two games then rest starters?

[organizedchaos21]

Bingo! It’s as if those Indianapolis teams and their playoff failures have all been forgotten. Someone brought up 2003 Ravens as well and, while I get their point, they didn’t have a first round bye that year. They will likely have it this year. That’s the whole point of the bye.

So this team, that suddenly has posters worried about if there’s going to be a drop of rain outside or a snowflake, is supposed to take two weeks off and not play a game for a full three weeks, before a divisional round game, at home, most likely in the cold and most likely against a team that has already played our offense once.

That’s just asking for trouble and a bunch of posters playing Monday Morning Quarterback.

I could see if they didn’t get the first round bye, but they will and that’s what the bye is for. I wouldn’t rest anybody week 17.

(Someone should definitely check my numbers here, new data set, didn't check anything myself)

Since 2002, I see 22 teams that have lost in week 17 (I'm using this as a proxy for resting starters) and had a bye. Those teams are 15-7 in the divisional round, 7-8 in championship games, and 3-4 in the SB.

By round of elimination:

Divisional Round

• 2003 Rams
• 2005 Bears
• 2007 Colts
• 2007 Cowboys
• 2008 Giants
• 2008 Titans (hey, I remember this one!)
• 2016 Cowboys

Conference Championship

• 2002 Eagles
• 2004 Falcons
• 2006 Saints
• 2010 Bears
• 2012 Falcons
• 2015 Patriots
• 2015 Cardinals
• 2018 Saints

Super Bowl

• 2004 Eagles
• 2005 Seahawks
• 2006 Bears
• 2009 Colts

Super Bowl Winners

• 2009 Saints
• 2014 Patriots
• 2017 Eagles

This examination could have two types of error: false positives (teams that lost in week 17 despite playing their starters, wrongly included here) and false negatives (teams that won in week 17 despite playing their backups, wrongly excluded).

The Colts only had 3 bye weeks (2005, 2007, 2009). They won their final game in 2005. The 2007 and 2009 teams are listed above.

I'll update this list with corrections if users want to provide them. Also open to other ways to find teams that have rested their starters in week 17 (i.e. reducing false negatives).

[unleashthebeast]

Let's just get the best of both worlds! Rest our key starters (Lamar, Ingram, Stanley, Yanda, Brown, Hollywood, Andrews, Williams, Judon, Clark, Thomas, Humphrey, Smith, Peters) or at most play them one or two possessions, and then STILL beat the Steelers with our backups. How sweet would that be?!? Knocking them out of the playoffs with RG3 lol. It's unrealistic, but hey, a man can dream

[Jfoh]

LJ should play the first half. After that let the game decide it. Close he might play longer but if a blow out rest him. In fact I’d have all three qb active that day. A bit if McSorley in the fourth might be a good thing. But you can’t just not show up if this game means anything to playoff finishing.

[mikezpen]

I'd certainly sit top players as much as possible next three games.I think the Ravens w/lose 1 of their final 2 games, but they can afford to, now, and still maintain #1 seed.I'd also keep their guys who were injured Sunday, out of Thursday night's game whether they are ready to play or not.

You won't knock Pittsburgh out of the playoffs in the final game because they will probably win the next two: Buffalo in Pitts and Jets in NY. So, I wouldn't risk top starters to beat them despite the rivalry. They D is tops right now, and it could carry them to the second round of the playoffs, maybe even against the Ravens.

[Culex]

Some players might have bonuses tied to games-played; and many players have a point of pride in consec games-started or things like that.

Pull a Peyton-Manning-Indy thing: start everyone as normal, pull them after a series or so.

This

[Balbirdsfan]

A number of years ago, the Ravens were in a similar situation with playing the Steelers the last game of the season or resting starters ahead of the playoffs. The Ravens had locked up the division and were going to play the Titans during the Wild Card round the next week. They decided to play their starters and try to win the game against the Steelers anyway. I think Billick said that it was important for the Ravens to win that meaningless game to make a statement going into the playoffs. It was a brutally physical game that I believe the Ravens won, but that game took so much out of them that they came out flat against the Titans in the playoffs the next week and lost that game. So, I say if the #1 seed is locked up, rest the starters and anyone else who is even marginally banged up.

That Pittsburgh game was brutal. Also the game where Jamal was trying to break the single season rushing record. Titans game was a good game until the two 15 yard penalties on the late Orlando Brown Sr. cost us the game.


It’s a tough call. Don’t play your starters and they cone out flat in round two and everyone’s pissed. Play your starters against Pittsburgh and someone of importance gets hurt and everyone will be roasting Harbaugh.

[G54377]

I'd love for RG3 to knock the Steelers out of a playoff spot. Perfect way to end the season.

[leachisabeast]

Im thinking 2 series for starters, then take Yanda, Stanley, Lamar, Andrews, Pierce, Williams, Jimmy, Smith, Humphrey, Thomas, and Judon out of the game.

[2bynight]

From ESPN: The last time John Harbaugh had a chance to sit his stars in Week 17 was in 2012, when he left the likes of Ray Lewis, Marshal Yanda and Anquan Boldin inactive and sat down Joe Flacco and Ed Reed by the end of the first quarter. That season ended with a Super Bowl victory, so I would expect Harbaugh to be similarly conservative if he has the chance in 2019, even if it pushes the Ravens' archrivals into the postseason.

[Trackmaster]

From what I understand, in the modern game, you absolutely do not play 100% in the final game or games when you have your seed wrapped up. Some coaches take it to an extreme and totally treat it like game 4 of the pre-season, but even short of that, guys won't take it seriously and starters will always come out in the 3rd quarter... and obviously they're very conservative to an extreme point with guys with injuries.

With a case like LJ, we might not even be active if we have our seed locked in.