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  1. #169
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Excellector View Post
    Then, the Ravens' kicking percentage is also relevant. Not the league. You're trying to have your cake and eat it too, in order to make your point.
    If you prefer we can operate from the assumption that the Ravens are better at finding kickers than the average NFL team. This reduces Tuckers value because we're likely to find a pretty good kicker to replace him.





  2. #170
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus View Post
    If you prefer we can operate from the assumption that the Ravens are better at finding kickers than the average NFL team. This reduces Tuckers value because we're likely to find a pretty good kicker to replace him.
    And what did we find between Tucker and Stover? An AFC Championship Game exit. Now, I don't have that problem. That is my preference. You keep trying to make this a debate. I've already made my main preference clear over and over.
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





  3. #171
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Excellector View Post
    And what did we find between Tucker and Stover? An AFC Championship Game exit. Now, I don't have that problem.
    I agree that that can happen as one possible outcome. I'm arguing that the chance of winning a championship generally is increased by making this move.





  4. #172
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    You can go by league averages for Kickers and league percentage chances of hitting on first round picks. Or Ravens averages for Kickers (For which Tucker plays quite the role) and Ravens averages for first round picks. No matter how you slice it, I'm not trading Justin Tucker.

    League history, go look up the percentage chance of hitting on a first round pick.
    Ravens history, go look at the importance of the kicker in our two title runs and the importance of the lack thereof in the 2011 AFC Championship loss.

    I, don't have to look at percentages. I have Justin Tucker. I don't have to worry about pressure in the playoffs. I don't have to worry about the open end at Heinz Field. I don't have to worry about getting extra yards to get my kicker closer. I'm keeping Justin Tucker.
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





  5. #173
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Excellector View Post
    You can go by league averages for Kickers and league percentage chances of hitting on first round picks. Or Ravens averages for Kickers (For which Tucker plays quite the role) and Ravens averages for first round picks. No matter how you slice it, I'm not trading Justin Tucker.
    Clearly not!

    I'll agree to disagree then. I'm certainly a big fan of Tucker and I'm glad we have him.





  6. #174

    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    The ultimate guide to win any argument about a player's importance, presented to you by The Sword:

    1) State that championships MUST require a last minute clutch play, regardless of how dominant your team is
    2) State that ONLY the player you like (typically Flacco, Tucker, Vinatieri) can make that play
    3) Sit back and enjoy being completely invincible in any dicsussion

    If we are having a match between an all-HOF team and the 2012 Ravens, I'm definitely taking the 2012 Ravens. You just know Flacco and Tucker are going to come through in the clutch!

    With regards to the hypothetical scenario: let's say you have all of the 5 mentioned players for 4 years, then trade them away (All-Pro's at their peak, they should get you some good picks in return). Now you can have even more cheap players post-2004. Still think Patriots don't win more championships in the 2000's?





  7. #175
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Quote Originally Posted by CopRaven View Post
    The ultimate guide to win any argument about a player's importance, presented to you by The Sword:

    1) State that championships MUST require a last minute clutch play, regardless of how dominant your team is
    2) State that ONLY the player you like (typically Flacco, Tucker, Vinatieri) can make that play
    3) Sit back and enjoy being completely invincible in any dicsussion

    If we are having a match between an all-HOF team and the 2012 Ravens, I'm definitely taking the 2012 Ravens. You just know Flacco and Tucker are going to come through in the clutch!

    With regards to the hypothetical scenario: let's say you have all of the 5 mentioned players for 4 years, then trade them away (All-Pro's at their peak, they should get you some good picks in return). Now you can have even more cheap players post-2004. Still think Patriots don't win more championships in the 2000's?
    The year your provided for your hypothetical was 1996. If I kept them for four years, before trading them away, I still have to look at the Patriots history drafting, hope those guys develop and going into 2001, I don't have Vinatieri. They're all rookies in 2000. They're all second year guys in 2001. I don't win the title in 2001 without Vinatieri.

    Not only that, but even if I hit on them, I lose several of the key veterans to those Super Bowl teams. I can't pay everybody.

    So, I probably don't win in 2001, will continue to lose veterans along the way to pay these guys, won't have Vinatieri and I'm supposed to believe that I'm going to win four Super Bowl titles after 2001, when I don't even make it?
    "Please take with you this final sword, The Excellector. I am praying that your journey will be guided by the light", Leon Shore





  8. #176
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Excellector View Post
    Would anyone care to go into the percentage chance of hitting on a first round pick? Since we're getting into percentages an all..........................
    Ok:

    The Ravens have "hit" on 19 out of 25 first round picks, for a hit rate of 76%.



    For simplicity's sake I counted all these guys below as "misses":
    Travis Taylor
    Kyle Boller
    Mark Clayton
    Matt Elam
    Breshad Perriman
    Hayden Hurst*

    For nuance I would push back a little on a couple of these guys. Travis Taylor shouldn't get a zero, should be more like a half. And it's premature to write-off Hurst. But whatevs: 76% is a decent conservative estimate based on the data we have.


    The median Career AV for those players (excluding the drafts from 2017 and on: Marlon, Lamar, Hurst, Marquise) is 54. That happens to be equal to the Career AV for Ben Grubbs.

    Obviously that AV is low: Ronnie Stanley's career AV is going to wind up higher than its current 22. The next guys up from Grubbs are Peter Boulware and CJ Mosley, at 59. So that gives an idea: 5 guys at around the Grubbs / Mosley / Boulware level. (But very high variance.)
    Last edited by JimZipCode; 12-10-2019 at 06:54 PM.





  9. #177

    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Smh





  10. #178
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    Time to close this thread





  11. #179

    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    What up mmc





  12. #180
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    Re: I wouldn't trade Justin Tucker for five first round picks.

    It seems like yíall were waiting for Tucker to fail so that you could pounce. Well have fun.





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