Playoff Odds

**JimZipCode** · 11-20-2019, 05:53 PM

Seasons when we're good, I can't wait for Football Outsider's Playoff Odds page to get updated every week. Here's this week's:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

We're up to making the playoffs in 99.4% of FO's simulations. We win the division in 98.3%, and get a bye in 80.6% of their scenarios.

Pittsburgh's playoff chances took the biggest hit of any team's this wkend. They were at 52.2% last week. That's been cut nearly in half: now they're down to 27.5%. Well done, Brownies!

FO has us as the second most-frequent team winning the SB! We win in 18.7% of their sims (New England is tops at 25.7%). I've been following this page for years (in seasons when we're good); I don't think I've ever seen us this high (#2 overall) in the reg season. Not even in years when we went on to advance to the AFCC.

Pretty cool.

**JimZipCode** · 11-20-2019, 06:01 PM

538's numbers are very similar.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

They have us:

Make playoffs:	99%
Win division:	96%
Get bye:	79%
Win SB:	19%

538's page is fun, because you can use checkboxes on the right side to choose scenarios over the next three games for each team, and see how the odds change. If New England loses any one of their next 3, we become the SB favorite, odds over 20%.

Good times!

**Rygar64** · 11-20-2019, 06:05 PM

Along a similar line...does anyone know the soonest we can clinch a berth? What scenarios have to play out for that? Is it two more wins by us regardless of what CLE does? Or do we have to get to 11 to render what they do irrelevant?

**organizedchaos21** · 11-20-2019, 06:17 PM

Originally Posted by Rygar64

Along a similar line...does anyone know the soonest we can clinch a berth? What scenarios have to play out for that? Is it two more wins by us regardless of what CLE does? Or do we have to get to 11 to render what they do irrelevant?

Ravens magic number over Cleveland is 3. The magic number for Pitt is 4. The Ravens tiebreakers with both teams won't be resolved until at least week 16, so they can only clinch the division outright (Cleveland could win a tie on H2H sweep or division record, Pitt could win on division record).

The Ravens could clinch the division with wins over the Rams and 49ers combined with Steelers losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland and a Cleveland loss to Miami (Ravens would have 10 wins, Steelers and Browns 7 losses).

If the Steelers win their next 3 games (@Cin, Cle, @Arz), the Ravens would still not clinch the division even if they also win their next 3 games to get to 11 wins.

**JimZipCode** · 11-20-2019, 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by Rygar64

does anyone know the soonest we can clinch a berth? What scenarios have to play out for that?

Originally Posted by organizedchaos21

Ravens magic number over Cleveland is 3. The magic number for Pitt is 4.
...
If the Steelers win their next 3 games (@Cin, Cle, @Arz), the Ravens would still not clinch the division even if they also win their next 3 games to get to 11 wins.

Org Chaos is of course totally right. If Balt & Pitt both win their next 3, Pitt would be 3 back with 3 to play. Nothing clinched yet.

But the soonest we could clinch is in two weeks. The scenario that would have to play out is, we win both + Pitt loses both + Cle loses at least one. Then Pittsburgh would be 5 back with 4 to play; Cleveland same at best.

**JimZipCode** · 11-20-2019, 06:40 PM

Originally Posted by cvilleRaven

Ravens win the next 2, Steelers lose this week and tie with Cleveland next week. The magic number with Pittsburgh is 3 1/2, not 4. That scenario would put us at 10-6 at worst, Pittsburgh at 9-5-1 at best, and Cleveland at 9-5-1. Tiebreakers don't matter at that point.

Oh, interesting. I forgot that those two teams are playing in 2 weeks! Yeah.

(Except Pitt's best would be 9-6-1 at that point.)

So you're right: we win two + Pitt & Cle both lose next week + Pitt does not win the week after, and we will have clinched. Pitt would be 4-1/2 back with 4 to play.

It's a lot to ask. Steelers are playing the Cincy Tankers this week, and the Brownies are hosting the Lolphins. Not to mention our own tough NFC West matchups, next couple games.

**Jay D83** · 11-20-2019, 06:52 PM

ESPN's playoff machine is back!

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

**PTORaven** · 11-20-2019, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

I don't think I've ever seen us this high (#2 overall) in the reg season. Not even in years when we went on to advance to the AFCC.

Pretty cool.

I've seen them #1 overall quite a few times. Not this late in the season I don't think, except I think we were #1 in 2006 even though the Chargers had the better record. I don't pay for the extras on the site so I don't think I can look up DVOA histories to see how late we were #1, so I'm going off of memory here.

**PTORaven** · 11-20-2019, 07:08 PM

also the Football Outsiders parent company EdjSports put out a coach ranking this week and Harbaugh was #1. This is based on objective stats of all coaching decisions made, so that's pretty cool. Kind of a shame Harbaugh never gets any Coach of the Year love, although maybe that changes this year. They overvalue turning around terrible franchises for CotY. If your team gets 6-8 more wins than last year or you make the playoffs despite major injuries you're a shoe-in. How it's not Harbaugh or Belicheck or one of those guys every year is beyond me.

https://edjsports.com/nfl/rankings/2...oach-rankings/

**cvilleRaven** · 11-20-2019, 07:34 PM

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

Oh, interesting. I forgot that those two teams are playing in 2 weeks! Yeah.

(Except Pitt's best would be 9-6-1 at that point.)

So you're right: we win two + Pitt & Cle both lose next week + Pitt does not win the week after, and we will have clinched. Pitt would be 4-1/2 back with 4 to play.

It's a lot to ask. Steelers are playing the Cincy Tankers this week, and the Brownies are hosting the Lolphins. Not to mention our own tough NFC West matchups, next couple games.

You're right - 9-6-1, because counting is hard....

Also, I think I deleted my own original post.

Anyway, 3 1/2 as the magic number over the next closest division opponent with 6 to play is a GREAT position to be in. We might actually clinch a division before anyone else this year

**VermontRaven** · 11-20-2019, 11:50 PM

I believe if we are guaranteed the tiebreak with Pittsburgh if they lose 1 more division game. If that happens, at worst we tie for head-to-head and division record. 3rd tiebreak is “common games”. Steelers won both “uncommon” games vs Indy and LAC while Ravens are 1-1–loss to KC, beat Houston. Therefore, Ravens win tiebreak.

Therefore, Ravens can clinch division in 2 weeks with 1 Steelers loss (Bengals OR Browns) and 1 Cleveland loss

**saintmatthew** · 11-21-2019, 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by PTORaven

also the Football Outsiders parent company EdjSports put out a coach ranking this week and Harbaugh was #1. This is based on objective stats of all coaching decisions made, so that's pretty cool. Kind of a shame Harbaugh never gets any Coach of the Year love, although maybe that changes this year. They overvalue turning around terrible franchises for CotY. If your team gets 6-8 more wins than last year or you make the playoffs despite major injuries you're a shoe-in. How it's not Harbaugh or Belicheck or one of those guys every year is beyond me.

https://edjsports.com/nfl/rankings/2...oach-rankings/

That’s normally the case but the Harbs / Lamar angle with him reinventing himself and the team is getting tons of love.

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