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  1. #49

    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

    target Targets Catches Yards TD INT FD Success SR
    M.Andrews
    98
    64
    852
    10
    3
    44
    53
    54.1%
    M.Brown
    71
    46
    584
    7
    0
    24
    34
    47.9%
    W.Snead IV
    46
    31
    339
    5
    2
    20
    24
    52.2%
    N.Boyle
    43
    31
    321
    2
    1
    13
    24
    55.8%
    H.Hurst
    39
    30
    349
    2
    0
    16
    27
    69.2%
    S.Roberts
    35
    21
    271
    2
    1
    18
    20
    57.1%
    M.Ingram II
    29
    26
    247
    5
    0
    16
    18
    62.1%
    M.Boykin
    22
    13
    198
    3
    0
    10
    13
    59.1%
    J.Hill
    15
    8
    70
    0
    0
    5
    8
    53.3%
    P.Ricard
    11
    8
    47
    1
    0
    3
    6
    54.5%
    G.Edwards
    7
    7
    45
    0
    0
    2
    5
    71.4%
    C.Moore
    5
    3
    21
    0
    0
    0
    1
    20.0%
    J.Scott
    3
    1
    6
    0
    0
    0
    1
    33.3%

    Oh look! More data suggesting the team should throw to Hayden Hurst more!
    39 targets all year to Hurst is a joke,





  2. #50

    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by Mark View Post
    39 targets all year to Hurst is a joke,
    Its hard to knock one of the best offenses in the NFL.

    I get it, some people got targets that arguably would have been better going to someone else...Boykin/Hurst.





  3. #51
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
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    15,448

    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by LittleG View Post
    They must think Hurst is bad in practice – because he is not used anywhere near enough.
    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    Its hard to knock one of the best offenses in the NFL.

    I get it, some people got targets that arguably would have been better going to someone else – Boykin/Hurst.
    Ultimately this thing that Ed said is correct. Leading the league in scoring offense, along with #1 in DVOA (both pass & run) and the rushing record and the #1 seed; that's the rebuttal to all criticism. They were awesome, and everything else is just nitpicking.


    I don't think the Hurst/Boykin target situation comes down to the coaches. Maybe to the extant that it's the result of how snaps are allocated. But otherwise I think it's Lamar. When things are easy and he has plenty of time, he'll spread the ball around. But when he feels pressure – either objective "pressure" in the form of pass rush, or mental pressure due to a tight spot in the game – Lamar tends to force it to His Boys: Mandrews and Marquise. The guys he has the relationship with. Snead in third place.

    I think this is one of the Next Steps for Lamar. Be a little more even-handed with the opportunities; don't play favorites quite so much. He's still so young as a QB! Probably just a smidge more maturity will take care of that. He's got the vision already.





  4. #52
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Balt-Wash corridor
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    15,448

    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

    ...

    Oh look! More data suggesting the team should throw to Hayden Hurst more!
    Thanks so much, OC.


    Drops, turnovers, spec teams penalties, and 4th-&-1s.

    "Kid played his ass off," 13-year guard Marshal Yanda said of Jackson's performance. "That's where I stand on it."





  5. #53

    Re: New Source for Stats

    Cream rises to the top





  6. #54
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Balt-Wash corridor
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    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

    ...

    Oh look! More data suggesting the team should throw to Hayden Hurst more!
    Question about your data:

    • For Mark Ingram, you list 5 TD and 16 First Downs; but only 18 "successes". What up with that?
    • Likewise for Mandrews & Snead, their TDs + First Downs exceeds their successes (but by only one each).

    Mistake in your algorithm? Or something I don't understand?





  7. #55
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
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    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:
    ...
    One potentially interesting corollary of this data is, what percentage of a receiver's catches qualify as UNsuccessful plays? "Unsuccessful Catch Percentage".


    Player Targets Catches TD INT FD Success SR UnsuccCatch
    Chris Moore 5 3 0 0 0 1 20.0% 66.7%
    Mark Ingram* 29 26 5 0 16 18 62.1% 30.8%
    Gus Edwards 7 7 0 0 2 5 71.4% 28.6%
    Marquise Brown 71 46 7 0 24 34 47.9% 26.1%
    Patrick Ricard* 11 8 1 0 3 6 54.5% 25.0%
    Nick Boyle 43 31 2 1 13 24 55.8% 22.6%
    Willie Snead 46 31 5 2 20 24 52.2% 22.6%
    Mark Andrews* 98 64 10 3 44 53 54.1% 17.2%
    Hayden Hurst 39 30 2 0 16 27 69.2% 10.0%
    Seth Roberts 35 21 2 1 18 20 57.1% 4.8%
    Miles Boykin 22 13 3 0 10 13 59.1% 0.0%
    Justice Hill 15 8 0 0 5 8 53.3% 0.0%
    Jaleel Scott 3 1 0 0 0 1 33.3% 0.0%


    I'm not sure what I think this stat tells us. It's nice that every one of Boykin's receptions was a "success", and that Seth Roberts & H Hurst convert their catches into success-plays 90%+ of the time. But at the other end of this table, isn't this merely telling us that the RBs get targeted short; they catch a high % of balls, but get tackled about 25-30% of the time? We knew that already.

    Marquise's number surprises me.

    Anyway: I thought there might be something here. I'm not convinced there is; I share it with the hope that maybe some of smart guys will notice something worthwhile.





  8. Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Question about your data:

    • For Mark Ingram, you list 5 TD and 16 First Downs; but only 18 "successes". What up with that?
    • Likewise for Mandrews & Snead, their TDs + First Downs exceeds their successes (but by only one each).

    Mistake in your algorithm? Or something I don't understand?
    TDs are always FDs.
    Proud member of The Coordinators! Check out our latest articles on the run and pass games!

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    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)





  9. #57
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    TDs are always FDs.
    Oh duh. I thought they were separate.

    Thanks!





  10. #58

    Re: New Source for Stats

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Ultimately this thing that Ed said is correct. Leading the league in scoring offense, along with #1 in DVOA (both pass & run) and the rushing record and the #1 seed; that's the rebuttal to all criticism. They were awesome, and everything else is just nitpicking.


    I don't think the Hurst/Boykin target situation comes down to the coaches. Maybe to the extant that it's the result of how snaps are allocated. But otherwise I think it's Lamar. When things are easy and he has plenty of time, he'll spread the ball around. But when he feels pressure – either objective "pressure" in the form of pass rush, or mental pressure due to a tight spot in the game – Lamar tends to force it to His Boys: Mandrews and Marquise. The guys he has the relationship with. Snead in third place.

    I think this is one of the Next Steps for Lamar. Be a little more even-handed with the opportunities; don't play favorites quite so much. He's still so young as a QB! Probably just a smidge more maturity will take care of that. He's got the vision already.
    Coaching and playcalling determine both the snaps and who are the primary reads on passing plays.I would be interested in knowing how many passing routes each TE ran and how many were blocking snaps. I agree that LJ seems to have his favorites but we have no way of knowing whether he is or isn't going through his progressions as the play is designed. If someone has broken down film showing who was open when the ball was "forced" somewhere else, we might know a little more. Whether it is the coaches or LJ, Boyle getting more targets than Hurst does not seem to maximize what Hurst can do as a playmaker to force the defense to account for him.





  11. #59

    Re: New Source for Stats

    I think it’s pretty clear the coaches design the offense to feature Hollywood.

    An easy way to tell is to look at who is the target on plays where the #1 WR is clearly the only read (screens) or clearly the primary like drags and go routes. I bet the numbers would bare this out.





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