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Thread: New Source for Stats
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02-02-2020, 02:27 PM #51Four-eyed Raven
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Re: New Source for Stats
Ultimately this thing that Ed said is correct. Leading the league in scoring offense, along with #1 in DVOA (both pass & run) and the rushing record and the #1 seed; that's the rebuttal to all criticism. They were awesome, and everything else is just nitpicking.
I don't think the Hurst/Boykin target situation comes down to the coaches. Maybe to the extant that it's the result of how snaps are allocated. But otherwise I think it's Lamar. When things are easy and he has plenty of time, he'll spread the ball around. But when he feels pressure either objective "pressure" in the form of pass rush, or mental pressure due to a tight spot in the game Lamar tends to force it to His Boys: Mandrews and Marquise. The guys he has the relationship with. Snead in third place.
I think this is one of the Next Steps for Lamar. Be a little more even-handed with the opportunities; don't play favorites quite so much. He's still so young as a QB! Probably just a smidge more maturity will take care of that. He's got the vision already.
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02-02-2020, 02:28 PM #52Four-eyed Raven
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02-02-2020, 02:38 PM #53
Re: New Source for Stats
Cream rises to the top
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02-02-2020, 02:59 PM #54Four-eyed Raven
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Re: New Source for Stats
Question about your data:
- For Mark Ingram, you list 5 TD and 16 First Downs; but only 18 "successes". What up with that?
- Likewise for Mandrews & Snead, their TDs + First Downs exceeds their successes (but by only one each).
Mistake in your algorithm? Or something I don't understand?
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02-02-2020, 03:26 PM #55Four-eyed Raven
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Re: New Source for Stats
One potentially interesting corollary of this data is, what percentage of a receiver's catches qualify as UNsuccessful plays? "Unsuccessful Catch Percentage".
Player Targets Catches TD INT FD Success SR UnsuccCatch Chris Moore 5 3 0 0 0 1 20.0% 66.7% Mark Ingram* 29 26 5 0 16 18 62.1% 30.8% Gus Edwards 7 7 0 0 2 5 71.4% 28.6% Marquise Brown 71 46 7 0 24 34 47.9% 26.1% Patrick Ricard* 11 8 1 0 3 6 54.5% 25.0% Nick Boyle 43 31 2 1 13 24 55.8% 22.6% Willie Snead 46 31 5 2 20 24 52.2% 22.6% Mark Andrews* 98 64 10 3 44 53 54.1% 17.2% Hayden Hurst 39 30 2 0 16 27 69.2% 10.0% Seth Roberts 35 21 2 1 18 20 57.1% 4.8% Miles Boykin 22 13 3 0 10 13 59.1% 0.0% Justice Hill 15 8 0 0 5 8 53.3% 0.0% Jaleel Scott 3 1 0 0 0 1 33.3% 0.0%
I'm not sure what I think this stat tells us. It's nice that every one of Boykin's receptions was a "success", and that Seth Roberts & H Hurst convert their catches into success-plays 90%+ of the time. But at the other end of this table, isn't this merely telling us that the RBs get targeted short; they catch a high % of balls, but get tackled about 25-30% of the time? We knew that already.
Marquise's number surprises me.
Anyway: I thought there might be something here. I'm not convinced there is; I share it with the hope that maybe some of smart guys will notice something worthwhile.
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02-02-2020, 03:43 PM #56
Re: New Source for Stats
Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)
Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)
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02-02-2020, 03:53 PM #57Four-eyed Raven
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Re: New Source for Stats
Coaching and playcalling determine both the snaps and who are the primary reads on passing plays.I would be interested in knowing how many passing routes each TE ran and how many were blocking snaps. I agree that LJ seems to have his favorites but we have no way of knowing whether he is or isn't going through his progressions as the play is designed. If someone has broken down film showing who was open when the ball was "forced" somewhere else, we might know a little more. Whether it is the coaches or LJ, Boyle getting more targets than Hurst does not seem to maximize what Hurst can do as a playmaker to force the defense to account for him.
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Re: New Source for Stats
I think its pretty clear the coaches design the offense to feature Hollywood.
An easy way to tell is to look at who is the target on plays where the #1 WR is clearly the only read (screens) or clearly the primary like drags and go routes. I bet the numbers would bare this out.
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Re: New Source for Stats
Looking to find out the % of screen passes in the top 5 QB's offense (Mahomes, Russ, Wentz, Dak)
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