No More Short Kickoffs

**HotInHere** · 10-14-2019, 09:33 AM

Originally Posted by AlbionHero

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...-or-not-return

Some data from last year showed that if a team returns a kick, the average field position (including TD run backs) is the 24 yard line. And that assumes an average kicker, someone like Tucker is better than average at kicking it in the right spot to prevent run backs. So yeah, analytics say you let them run it back and take what happens instead of playing it safe.

But that doesn’t take in to account the significant change in W/L probability when you give up a TD.

I’m not against the short kick all the time. But yesterday, you have to make the Bengals earn everything. Make them drive 75 yards. When you outclass a team, the only way you lose is big-swing plays, like turnovers, blocked FGs, and kick returns for TDs.

They should have had no chance to get a free seven points yesterday. Every kick should have been through the back of the end zone.

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**pslholder96** · 10-14-2019, 09:55 AM

Just a bad day at the office for special teams. No big deal. I have no problem with the short kicks as long as the hang time is there and the coverage is sound.

**CarrollCoRaven** · 10-14-2019, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

Coach Harbaugh is trying to gain any and every advantage for his defense. He knows that the defense is shaky. I can’t blame him for that, because of one play. This is taking full advantage of a Kicker like Tucker and getting your moneys worth out of your coverage unit. It has worked well. Today it didn’t, but I wouldn’t deviate from it until it becomes a pattern.

It worked, it kept our defense off the field.

**AlbionHero** · 10-14-2019, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by HotInHere

But that doesn’t take in to account the significant change in W/L probability when you give up a TD.

I’m not against the short kick all the time. But yesterday, you have to make the Bengals earn everything. Make them drive 75 yards. When you outclass a team, the only way you lose is big-swing plays, like turnovers, blocked FGs, and kick returns for TDs.

They should have had no chance to get a free seven points yesterday. Every kick should have been through the back of the end zone.

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What about a kick where they fumble the ball on the kickoff and you recover it? That would also completely change the w/l probability, but in your favor instead. It can go either way, you can't just play scared because one time it backfires.

**HotInHere** · 10-14-2019, 09:26 PM

Originally Posted by AlbionHero

What about a kick where they fumble the ball on the kickoff and you recover it? That would also completely change the w/l probability, but in your favor instead. It can go either way, you can't just play scared because one time it backfires.

I’m betting returns for TDS happens way more than muffs recovered by the kicking team, so it’s not accurate to say “it could go either way.”

When the Phins play the Pats, that game could theoretically go either way, but one way is a lot lore likely.

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**RavensNest** · 10-14-2019, 09:29 PM

Also need to get rid of Marlon on Special Teams.

**Mark** · 10-14-2019, 09:32 PM

Originally Posted by AlbionHero

What about a kick where they fumble the ball on the kickoff and you recover it? That would also completely change the w/l probability, but in your favor instead. It can go either way, you can't just play scared because one time it backfires.

I’m ready to be persuaded by the analytics. What is the average opponent’s starting position when we do a short kickoff to force a return? How is the advantage computed in favor of the short kick?