You guys are allergic to math

[JAB1985]

I agree with the math on 4th down decisions but the marginal improvement in going for 2 is less compelling, especially with the best kicker in the league. BTW, a team that is going to make these aggressive decisions may also have to admit that spending a lot of money on a kicker and punter doesn't pass the analytics test. That's a conflict that former ST coach Harbaugh may struggle explaining if he's going to game coach on 4th down and on XPs from a chart. Also, are we going to coach by math all year or just "when we are trying to score as many points as possible"?

I think the chiefs are a unique situation. there may be a few other teams that fit a similar style to a lesser degree, but the Chiefs offense is so great and their defense so poor, that wide margin opens up this gameplan more so than other offensive teams.

[GOTA]

Each case was individual. The only one that I had an issue with is the same one that everyone else did, down by 11. That one still makes no sense. The others you can make a case for especially after missing the first one from the 1 yard line.

[Jsmoove]

Fuck is this thread? I see common sense still uncommon


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[sflegend89]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9...iefs-analytics

I actually didn't understand the drop kick when it happened live. I thought we were trying to catch them with their pants down, sky it into a sea of bodies, hope they would be too off guard to think to fair catch it, let all hell break loose and hopefully recover it. I thought the fair catch foiled our witty onside attempt. Took me a minute to realize that the point was to prevent a time runoff before the 2 minute warning, that was actually pretty damn inventive and smart. Too bad the defense couldn't stop a fucking screen on 3rd and long to take advantage of it.

[Jsmoove]

I actually didn't understand the drop kick when it happened live. I thought we were trying to catch them with their pants down, sky it into a sea of bodies, hope they would be too off guard to think to fair catch it, let all hell break loose and hopefully recover it. I thought the fair catch foiled our witty onside attempt. Took me a minute to realize that the point was to prevent a time runoff before the 2 minute warning, that was actually pretty damn inventive and smart. Too bad the defense couldn't stop a fucking screen on 3rd and long to take advantage of it.

The only problem with the drop kick was that it wasn’t high enough to give time for the players to get under it but it was the right play


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[ERey]

Analytics = "I don't trust my defense"

Mathematical equations don't account for all the variables that are happening throughout a game. For example, I just stopped KC's first drive then drove down the field with ease to score a TD. Do I want to take the easy 1 (knowing Andy Reid will also take 1 also if he scores) or possibly hand KC a victory by firing up their team and fans and get my franchise QB crushed in the process? Not making the 2 points hurt more than the advantage they would had with 8 points IN THIS PARTICULAR SITUATION.

At the end of the day football is football. Your defense is going to have to make a stop. That's why you draft Marlon Humphrey is round 1, that's why you sign Brandon Williams to a huge deal and that's why you sign Earl Thomas. These guys are there for a reason. You can quote analytics all you want and chase points, but at the end of the day the defense has to make a stop. If they could have made a stop at the end do you want to hand Lamar the ball down by 5 because the analytics said make those decisions, or down 2 because you played good sound football? I'm pretty sure analytics doesn't account for having the best kicker in the history.

[organizedchaos21]

If our line was getting push against their D-line, then I can see going for all of those plays. But if our O line is getting pushed back, and KC is able to get to Lamar for only rushing 3 or 4, then going for it in those cases is mathematically improbable/ill-advised.

The Ravens were ridiculous on the ground yesterday. Excluding Lamar, they carried 24 times for 157 yards. They were also Successful on 19 of those carries (that means they gained at least 40% of yards to go on 1st, 60% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th). And that doesn't include the 42 yards Edwards lost to penalty.

I actually didn't understand the drop kick when it happened live. I thought we were trying to catch them with their pants down, sky it into a sea of bodies, hope they would be too off guard to think to fair catch it, let all hell break loose and hopefully recover it. I thought the fair catch foiled our witty onside attempt. Took me a minute to realize that the point was to prevent a time runoff before the 2 minute warning, that was actually pretty damn inventive and smart. Too bad the defense couldn't stop a fucking screen on 3rd and long to take advantage of it.

I think there were multiple parts to the drop kick. If the Chiefs are smart enough to call for a FC, then there's the obvious benefit of no time coming off (plus, it's still a different type of kick to catch). If they freeze and let it drop, then we get a free-for-all. It was one of the more brilliant calls on the day, imo.

[Mark]

I actually didn't understand the drop kick when it happened live. I thought we were trying to catch them with their pants down, sky it into a sea of bodies, hope they would be too off guard to think to fair catch it, let all hell break loose and hopefully recover it. I thought the fair catch foiled our witty onside attempt. Took me a minute to realize that the point was to prevent a time runoff before the 2 minute warning, that was actually pretty damn inventive and smart. Too bad the defense couldn't stop a fucking screen on 3rd and long to take advantage of it.

I think the drop kick provides both the fair catch and the chance to get the ball back

[Ravens44]

We should be exceptionally thankful to have Harbaugh and the analytics department. Going for it on fourth down at the 7 with fourth and 2, 34 fourth and 1, 48 fourth and two, and going for 2 on one yard line instead of taking the point were all mathematically no brainers. I don’t understand going for 2 down 11, but I certainly could be convinced otherwise. I know other people talk about

- momentum
- taking points off the board
- or things are only right or wrong if they work or don’t work

You only think about these things because you don’t understand math or game theory. Let’s take the easiest example. Tucker made the extra point and we decided to go for two points from the one. Now what are the chances we get 1 yard on a play? Conservatively I will say with Lamar and a bad defense this is 60%. Most conservatively. Real odds I think are closer to 75%. So if it’s 75%, you make 1.5 points simply by making this decision as compared to 1 point for the extra point, no brainer.

I’m more than happy to explain game theory and how going for it on fourth down and short is good anywhere outside the 20 yard line if anyone is interested, and it actually becomes far better against a great offense.

I’m really just disgusted at people saying Harbaugh cost us the game, his great decision making gave us a greater shot at winning.

I don't agree. It is not black and white. It just isn't.
After the defense had done their job, stopped the Chiefs and we got the ball.
Drove down the field and went for it on 4th down and made it, then got 6!
Everything had worked as well as could have been hoped for if we were going to go there and pull out a victory.
SO, you don't take points off the board...that early in the game on the road.
At that moment the crowd was silent.
And you DON'T GIVE THEM A CHANCE TO GRAB THE MOMENTUM back.
That's what I learned from playing football.
The NFL is so much about momentum and confidence.
IF they were in the 2nd quarter and everything was working...maybe think about it.
But not that early.

And yes, I have a BS in Math. But I also played ball.
IT is not black and white...its most definitely gray.
Analytics does not take into account human feelings, reactions, and home field advantage.
All one has to do is remember all those games against the Steelers where the Ravens were on the doorstep to victory only to make ONE mistake and the momentum completely shifted and NEVER came back.

[balbomb]

The problem with momentum is that you can manipulate it any way you choose to back up your point. The same people that probably thought it was smart to go for it when it worked and dumb when plays failed all can justify through momentum. Yet it has been proven over and over again in sports that momentum is not a real quantifiable thing. What is real is the expected value of each individual decision: and outside of the late two point conversion these were no brainers.

[balbomb]

Analytics = "I don't trust my defense"

Mathematical equations don't account for all the variables that are happening throughout a game. For example, I just stopped KC's first drive then drove down the field with ease to score a TD. Do I want to take the easy 1 (knowing Andy Reid will also take 1 also if he scores) or possibly hand KC a victory by firing up their team and fans and get my franchise QB crushed in the process? Not making the 2 points hurt more than the advantage they would had with 8 points IN THIS PARTICULAR SITUATION.

At the end of the day football is football. Your defense is going to have to make a stop. That's why you draft Marlon Humphrey is round 1, that's why you sign Brandon Williams to a huge deal and that's why you sign Earl Thomas. These guys are there for a reason. You can quote analytics all you want and chase points, but at the end of the day the defense has to make a stop. If they could have made a stop at the end do you want to hand Lamar the ball down by 5 because the analytics said make those decisions, or down 2 because you played good sound football? I'm pretty sure analytics doesn't account for having the best kicker in the history.

Actually yes, yes analytics can account for best or worst kicker in history. It’s simple math in accessing how often will tucker make the extra point or fg, versus how often the conversion will succeed and how many points that will generate. Obviously whether to go for two points is the easiest decision tree, but we can also talk more advanced game theory decisions such as when or when not to go for it on fourth down.

I’m sure this goes without saying but “analytics= I don’t trust my defense” is you being allergic to math.

[Ravens44]

The problem with momentum is that you can manipulate it any way you choose to back up your point. The same people that probably thought it was smart to go for it when it worked and dumb when plays failed all can justify through momentum. Yet it has been proven over and over again in sports that momentum is not a real quantifiable thing. What is real is the expected value of each individual decision: and outside of the late two point conversion these were no brainers.

I played through college and I can assure you, whether you can measure it or not, it IS a thing to those on the field who play the actual game.
You can feel, you can sense it, and denying its existence is denying the human element and the human condition.
Because no one KNOWS how to quantify it, how to put it into an equation, does NOT mean it doesn't exist.
Humans can feel, humans are not machines.
What they do one moment does not mean they will ALWAYS perform a certain way.
Home field advantage is a real thing. Why is that? Playing in front of a home crowd, the noise, the electricity, it can effect a player's performance in all kinds of ways.
They could perform great while being "fired up" from the home town crowd...or he could over run a play because he is going on emotion and makes a mistake.
You cannot put that in an equation.
IF in the beginning of the game everything is going your favor especially if you are on the road, you do not want to create an opportunity to give your opponent any reason for hope.
At some point you want them to feel as if no matter what they do, they are not going to succeed.
It makes them act out of character, it makes them become desperate. It makes them do things they WOULDN'T have done and might make a bigger mistake.
That can cause a snowballing effect. Because you can't just throw out human emotion.
Were all the 2 point decisions or going on 4th the wrong thing to do? NO they weren't.
But I would say that the first 2 point decision was a mistake and it was FELT throughout the remainder of the game.