You guys are allergic to math

**balbomb** · 09-22-2019, 11:51 PM

We should be exceptionally thankful to have Harbaugh and the analytics department. Going for it on fourth down at the 7 with fourth and 2, 34 fourth and 1, 48 fourth and two, and going for 2 on one yard line instead of taking the point were all mathematically no brainers. I don’t understand going for 2 down 11, but I certainly could be convinced otherwise. I know other people talk about

- momentum
- taking points off the board
- or things are only right or wrong if they work or don’t work

You only think about these things because you don’t understand math or game theory. Let’s take the easiest example. Tucker made the extra point and we decided to go for two points from the one. Now what are the chances we get 1 yard on a play? Conservatively I will say with Lamar and a bad defense this is 60%. Most conservatively. Real odds I think are closer to 75%. So if it’s 75%, you make 1.5 points simply by making this decision as compared to 1 point for the extra point, no brainer.

I’m more than happy to explain game theory and how going for it on fourth down and short is good anywhere outside the 20 yard line if anyone is interested, and it actually becomes far better against a great offense.

I’m really just disgusted at people saying Harbaugh cost us the game, his great decision making gave us a greater shot at winning.

**Culex** · 09-22-2019, 11:59 PM

Its simple; He had zero faith in the defense in overtime and rightfully so

**balbomb** · 09-23-2019, 12:45 AM

Originally Posted by Culex

Its simple; He had zero faith in the defense in overtime and rightfully so

So apparently I need to add that to my list. He was being aggressive but it's rooted in math and game theory. It's just simply the way all coaches should do it.

**Laxdad24** · 09-23-2019, 01:19 AM

Is that you Jimmy Ann Arbor? You make a Filth account?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

**sflegend89** · 09-23-2019, 01:35 AM

Harbaugh's aggressive decisions are so obviously fear based, the math might be there but the right game psychology is not.

Would Belichick do that shit? Hell no, he would kick the xp and punt. BB is selectively aggressive, it's less about math analytics and more about psychology and his gut feeling during the game.

Sometimes he will go for it at midfield but it's usually when he knows how to move the ball on you and feels confident in how he wants to attack you. It's not a blind leap of faith like Harbs, it's just a gut feeling and confidence that he has the right play ready that stands a very high chance of converting based on the flow of play.

The Ravens had no rhythm when we went for it and turned over. We were disjointed and all over the place. Punt the fucking ball and go figure it out on the sideline. The whole passing game wasn't clicking and he expected them to pull a rabbit out of the hat on 4th. Bad psychology.

Difference between Harbs and BB/Reid going for it? They actually call the plays and know when they have a high percentage way to convert.

**WNCRavensFan** · 09-23-2019, 02:27 AM

Going for 2 down 11 is the only one I posted a thread about.

And I was finished with calculus in high school thank you very much. Not that I think high level math has anything to do with the decision made yesterday.

**Paintballguy** · 09-23-2019, 07:02 AM

Harbs calls for going for it were great. My only gripe were the actual play calls. I don't like calling a rollout on 4th and 2.

4th and 2 or 1 should always be automatic go for it calls unless you're deep in you're own territory.

I highly recommend giving this article a read. https://www.advancedfootballanalytic...4th-down-study

**InigoMontoya** · 09-23-2019, 07:12 AM

If our line was getting push against their D-line, then I can see going for all of those plays. But if our O line is getting pushed back, and KC is able to get to Lamar for only rushing 3 or 4, then going for it in those cases is mathematically improbable/ill-advised.

**Paintballguy** · 09-23-2019, 07:15 AM

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/9...iefs-analytics

**Ravenswintitle** · 09-23-2019, 07:46 AM

Originally Posted by Paintballguy

Harbs calls for going for it were great. My only gripe were the actual play calls. I don't like calling a rollout on 4th and 2.

4th and 2 or 1 should always be automatic go for it calls unless you're deep in you're own territory.

I highly recommend giving this article a read. https://www.advancedfootballanalytic...4th-down-study

same. Loved the aggressiveness, just wish they had let Ingram have one of those plays

**Mark** · 09-23-2019, 08:00 AM

I agree with the math on 4th down decisions but the marginal improvement in going for 2 is less compelling, especially with the best kicker in the league. BTW, a team that is going to make these aggressive decisions may also have to admit that spending a lot of money on a kicker and punter doesn't pass the analytics test. That's a conflict that former ST coach Harbaugh may struggle explaining if he's going to game coach on 4th down and on XPs from a chart. Also, are we going to coach by math all year or just "when we are trying to score as many points as possible"?

**JAB1985** · 09-23-2019, 08:06 AM

I really dont have an issue with the call for going for it like we did. Aggressive game plan makes sense, and that attitude was one of the reasons we stayed in the game. we werent converting 3rd downs (5-13) so the 4th downs made sense. I have much more issue with some of the execution and play calling on those 3rd downs and the failed 2 pointers, than the decision to go for them. I think Harbs made the right calls in almost all of those situations. going for 2 down 11, was odd to me in the moment, but if you look at it as going for 2 for the win instead of an EP for a tie at the end of a game, it does make sense. they had a higher chance to do it at that point and then a long FG late would be enough to win it. He was trying to win the game and I dont fault that decision. I think a lot more fans would want to go for the win than a tie when it comes down to it but are getting hung up on when he made that decision more so than the decision. end of the game, i think fans are a lot less critical, but wed have to be in position to score a TD late to go for 2 for the win, versus get into Tucker's FG range, which is a lot higher probability for success considering time.

The biggest issue was our defense couldnt stop anything. Thats what put us in a position to be so aggressive offensively in the first place, and I dont think Harbs was wrong about that either. they were bad, and clearly they saw that coming from the start.