You guys are allergic to math

**KingSerg** · 10-30-2019, 08:12 PM

Dear god. I come to this board to escape the pedantic dick measuring sessions that I have to endure during my department faculty meetings. You both are why more and more of my university students are turned off by the academic system, and frankly I agree with them.

Enough already, you are both internet Einsteins...congratulations to you both for recognizing that both neurons and the internet operate using electrons.

**JimZipCode** · 10-31-2019, 01:14 AM

Originally Posted by KingSerg

Dear god. I come to this board to escape the pedantic dick measuring sessions that I have to endure during my department faculty meetings.
...
Enough already

**burnwood** · 10-31-2019, 01:21 AM

I suspect at least one of the members of the Ravens analytic team posts in this thread.

**darb72** · 10-31-2019, 01:32 AM

Originally Posted by balbomb

You are completely proving my point about old school coaches and fans being so scared about a negative outcome that it blinds them into making the wrong decision. The game is already in a terrible mathematical situation, the ravens are probably 99% or better to win. The goal of every play is not to avoid being 100% to lose, but to increase your win odds as much as possible. Therefore a conversion and quick touchdown would likely move the odds to 97% or so, while a successful fg certainly would not have the same gain, and thus the risk is worth it. But lets break it down if you wish.

Chances of making the fg ~80%, so it's not like the fg attempt alone secures you 2 points.

Chances of converting the first down~ 66%. I could even argue this should be higher considering an MVP candidate QB and the Ravens know their goal is to keep the clock moving, not to just stop them on fourth down.

While this has the potential to eat some clock, like we have talked about before in order to score 3 times, you need to use some sort of clock, and the value of extracting 7 or 8 points while only going 17 yards is going to be so much higher than getting 17 yards on a later possession at any other point on the field.

I would really urge you to do a little exploring on math related to the football. The first place to start would be to look at mathematical models on when to go for it on fourth down. This will at least give you a very general sense of what situations to look for and will probably make football more interesting for you to watch. I think you will be surprised at what you find because currently you are way way off.

If the clock strikes 0, the game is over so getting a first down there REDUCES the chances of them winning as opposed to kicking a FG. If they had gotten a TD, sure, they were in a slightly better position but still would have needed a FG and TD. Quit trying to run a game on your calculator, try to grasp context, and maybe you'll start understanding football a bit more.

**darb72** · 10-31-2019, 01:33 AM

Originally Posted by KingSerg

Dear god. I come to this board to escape the pedantic dick measuring sessions that I have to endure during my department faculty meetings. You both are why more and more of my university students are turned off by the academic system, and frankly I agree with them.

Enough already, you are both internet Einsteins...congratulations to you both for recognizing that both neurons and the internet operate using electrons.

Really? I come here to revel in it because my chair frowns on us yelling at each other.

**WNCRavensFan** · 10-31-2019, 02:42 AM

Originally Posted by burnwood

I suspect at least one of the members of the Ravens analytic team posts in this thread.

Well they did ask for analytic hires and I'm sure many of us applied for a job

I certainly would have if I weren't tied up here out of state

**balbomb** · 11-05-2019, 04:37 AM

Weird decision making game among two of the best. Clear go for it on the first drive of the game on fourth down, and an even more clear go for it at the end of the half.

**balbomb** · 11-12-2019, 02:51 PM

Was truly a spectacle of awful coaching decisions last night in the Sea/SF game in overtime. It started with San Francisco being practically giddy to kick a 47 yard fg with a kicker that just came off the street to win the game. Mike Lombardi talks about this point a lot, the goal at the end of the game is not to attempt a fg, it's to make that fg. Felt like relying on your completely unproven kicker to make not one but two long pressure kicks was insane. Instead, going for a qb sneak on fourth and less than 1 was the easy decision.

Of course not to be outdone, from their own ~45 with less than 2 minutes left in overtime, Pete Carroll decides to throw the ball on 3rd and 2, and a 20 yard go route of all things, and then punt the freaking ball. There are certain game theory situations in football where the other team can call out what play you are running and it is still correct to call that exact play. Perfect example, if New England needs 3 inches they should always just QB sneak, even if the other team knows exactly what they are doing. In this spot, running the ball on third down is the only option because it then allows you to always go for it on fourth down, it runs some clock, and unless you are playing against the ravens or new england they aren't aware that is a must run situation.

Well somehow none of these were the worst decisions. SF then proceeds from around their own 20 with 1:48 left in overtime to make some of the dumbest freaking playcalls I have ever seen in my whole life. It's hard to imagine a situation where running all of the clock on first down at a minimum is more important. Just by taking 40 seconds off of the gameclock, you make a situation where there is almost no chance that the other team wins the game, so running the ball on first down is imperative. The upside of completing a 10 yard pass and a first down is almost non existent compared to the downside of stopping the clock and potentially punting back to the seahawks. Well somehow they manage to throw three incompletions, punt the ball back to the best 2 minute drive QB in football and game was over.

All I can say is that we are exceptionally lucky to have analytics experts in our organization, and a coach that listens to them, because what some teams are doing across the league is just criminally dumb.

**Rosie** · 11-13-2019, 07:38 PM

More support for analytics in the NFL is below. This article highlights Brian Burke, the pioneer of the modern NFLs acceptance of the data and how and why we are seeing more 4th down attempts today more than ever.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1...-lamar-jackson

**Ravenswintitle** · 11-13-2019, 08:27 PM

Originally Posted by Rosie

More support for analytics in the NFL is below. This article highlights Brian Burke, the pioneer of the modern NFLs acceptance of the data and how and why we are seeing more 4th down attempts today more than ever.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1...-lamar-jackson

Wow that is a long article.
I just want to add that Gil Brandt was a pioneer in teams using data probably more than anyone. He started building the databases of every measurement possible on great players and profiling the characteristics in the draft

He was the combine before it became official

**mmi16** · 11-13-2019, 10:07 PM

Math is hard.

**The Excellector** · 11-14-2019, 03:16 AM

Again, the issue with analytics is in when people do what Burke doesn’t do: Use Analytics as gospel and declare every move the right move if Analytics says so. Burke doesn’t do that. It’s fans who get gung-ho about it, and take it to an extreme, rather than in its proper context. If analytics tells you the best idea is to do something, and you can clearly see mid-game, that it wouldn’t work at all, you don’t do it. You don’t, do it and then justify it by saying analytics said do it. And then have fans declaring that no matter what came of it, it was the right decision no matter what, because analytics said so.