Week 2 Gambling

[balbomb]

Under 49.5 bucs panthers- this was made primarily because was super impressed by bucs defense despite Winston having one of his worst pro games. Newton also didn’t look like he did a few years ago as running the ball is less and less part of his game, and he never looked 100% confident in the pocket. Biggest concern is that bad qb play can almost be as bad as really good qb play for unders bettors, but let’s hope it’s a relatively turnover free game.

Always interested bets everyone likes, I’m sure I will have a few bets for Sunday.

Ytd: +1.8 units

[balbomb]

Bills -1- I think a lot of people were only talking about the Bills comeback, but I think it underscores them overcoming 4 turnovers on offense. Think turnovers are to be expected to a point with Josh Allen, but he also did some good things in this game that makes me think the offense can be better, and the jets D is quite the opposite of the giants weak one. I also am always impressed by how hard Buffalo plays, especially on defense which is a big part of stopping Saquon. Michael Lombardi was harping on this week just how talent poor the giants are, and it was quite obvious once the game went on in Dallas. This is also just about as big a coaching gap that you will find, McDermott consistently overperforms with average talent at best, where I think Shurmur is at a minimum in the bottom 3 head coaches in the NFL. Looks like Shepherd will also be out, and I expect the Giants to have a really poor home field advantage for an opening day game, especially if things start out poorly. Bills are never going to be the type of team that will blow you out, but they are well coached and will be focused on doing anything to limit Saquon (although he really is an amazing talent and has the ability to break every play).

Bears -2.5- as a general rule, most smart NFL bettors shy away from small road favorites, and I think this is even more important in the opening few weeks where overreactions are so common. I think if week 1 didn't exist, this line would be Broncos by 2 or 2.5 So typically giving up this big a gap in line movements is a losing play, but I just couldn't overlook the total mismatch of the denver offense vs bears defense. I am one of the biggest Flacco haters on earth so I could just be showing my extreme bias, but I think this could turn into a huge turnover fest. Flacco was very close to 3 fumbles when he was hit, and the Bears last year had more pure qb hits than any defense in the league. Broncos are also without their starting right tackle and the difference when he went out in the Raiders game was substantial. On the other side of the ball, there also appears to be a significant mismatch, but I think this could be downplayed by a few factors. Trubisky is an average at best starting qb, but I am not sure he is quite as bad as he looked last Thursday. I think some of that can be attributed to the familiarity that the Packers have with him, as well as what looks like quite a good Green Bay defense. The additional few days to prepare should also help a good offensive playcaller like Nagy scheme some ways to get him some easy throws early on. Additionally, if the Raiders game was any evidence, this Broncos defense looks like it has taken a step back. I've never seen a Broncos game where Von Miller was so absent, and the secondary really struggled to keep up with a very pedestrian Raiders wide receiving core. I am hoping the extra days to prepare will be enough to offset a legitimate home field advantage that the Broncos have.

Also leaning towards colts, bengals, and lions in that order. I will post if I make the bets

Who is everyone betting on or taking strongly in your pickem leagues?

Ytd: +2.75 units

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Rams -2: no clue why this line isn’t -3 and think saints out doors and in heat is a disadvantage.

Ytd:+3.75 units

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Eagles -1.5- brutal beat where the denver coach went for 2 and i lost by 2.5. I missed the few times there were -2 and was a little lazy i didnt go to one sportsbook in vegas. Pretty easy bet for me when I have eagles ranked as #3 team, and falcons with a poor opener.

YTD: +3.65 units