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Thread: QB Runs

  1. #37
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    R u going to include hit numbers?
    How often is he getting hit per game based on the type of play?
    Only on runs.

    (Some of which include sacks where IMO he transitioned into a scrambler but got caught behind the line.)





  2. #38

    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Only on runs.

    (Some of which include sacks where IMO he transitioned into a scrambler but got caught behind the line.)
    But how will you arrive at your stated goal with tracking the actual hits?





  3. #39
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    But how will you arrive at your stated goal with tracking the actual hits?
    I don't care about hits on pass attempts.

    I mean, excuse me: obviously I care. But this thread is about "excess" hits Lamar takes on plays where he is a runner, as opposed to strictly a passer.





  4. #40

    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    I don't care about hits on pass attempts.

    I mean, excuse me: obviously I care. But this thread is about "excess" hits Lamar takes on plays where he is a runner, as opposed to strictly a passer.
    Yeah, okay. But are you tracking the actual hits? Or counting all runs as hits?





  5. #41
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    But how will you arrive at your stated goal with tracking the actual hits?
    Put another way: at the end of the season, Lamar's "total times hit" should equal:
    my numbers here
    + sacks
    + QB hits by the defense (which is hits just after the pass is thrown)

    A small number of sacks might be double-counted by this equation. When Lamar becomes a scrambler and doesn't make it back to the line, I have that as a hit while running, while the NFL logs it as an official sack. I try to mark those on the table.

    Also, Lamar might take a couple blocks over the season, while trying to track a fumble recovery or INT return. No one is tracking those, to the best of my knowledge. But Lamar is no more vulnerable than any other QB is; I don't see any reason to make a special effort.





  6. #42
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    Yeah, okay. But are you tracking the actual hits? Or counting all runs as hits?
    Tracking the hits.

    Here's the template I used for game 1:

    I'm going to populate one like it for each of the games so far.





  7. #43
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    These are his 16 official carries (note 2 kneels and the stupid fumbled snap both count). You've correctly got (Q3, 05:56) which I would miss since the play was nullified by penalty. I'll check the other nullified plays tonight.
    Couple weeks late with this, but here we go:

    Game 2
    When Who What Scramble? Option? Kneel? Hit? Official?
    Q1 10:01 Lamar Zone read left Yes (Ingram middle) No - OOB
    Q1 05:17 Lamar Keeper up middle Yes Yes
    Q1 00:51 Lamar Fake handoff run left ?? No
    Q2 08:26 Lamar Roll right, looked to throw, ran Yes No
    Q2 07:45 Lamar Up middle Yes barely
    Q2 07:04 Lamar Fake handoff run left Yes
    Q2 05:09 Lamar Up middle Yes
    Q3 14:29 Lamar Up middle Yes Yes No – Pen Horse Collar
    Q3 05:56 Lamar Run right Yes No
    Q3 04:08 Lamar Run left Yes Yes
    Q3 00:56 Lamar QB draw up middle No
    Q4 10:30 Lamar Scramble left Yes No
    Q4 07:25 Lamar Run wide left Yes No
    Q4 03:13 Lamar scramble behind LOS Yes Yes Probably a sack
    Q4 01:21 Lamar Victory Yes
    Q4 00:30 Lamar Victory Yes
    Last edited by JimZipCode; 09-30-2019 at 04:42 PM.





  8. #44
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    I'll try to fill in the blanks for you shortly.
    Catching up:


    Game 3
    When Who What Scramble? Option? Kneel? Hit? Official?
    Q1 08:44 Lamar Fake handoff run off-tackle – – – No
    Q1 07:13 Lamar Run left – Yes – No
    Q1 06:02 Lamar Scramble right Yes – – Yes
    Q1 05:08 Lamar Scramble left (4thD) Yes – – Yes
    Q1 4:24 Lamar QB sweep left (2pt try) – – – Yes No - 2pt conversion
    Q1 12:46 Lamar Scramble right Yes – – Yes No - ruled sack
    Q2 06:03 Lamar Scramble right Yes – – No - OOB
    Q2 03:00 Lamar Keeper left – Maybe (fake) – Yes
    Q3 11:28 Lamar Run left – Maybe (fake) – No - OOB
    Q4 02:10 Lamar Scramble right, TD Yes – – a little?





  9. #45
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    Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Raw notes from game 4:
    Here's my full table for Cleveland @ Ravens:


    Game 4
    When Who What Scramble? Option? Kneel? Hit? Official?
    Q1 01:59 Lamar Run right – – – No
    Q2 10:16 Lamar QB sneak – – – Yes
    Q2 05:35 Lamar Run left Yes Maybe (fake Ingram) – Not really (stumbled after bump)
    Q2 02:14 Lamar Option exch fumble – Yes – No, Ingram recover
    Q4 00:21 Lamar Victory – – Yes –
    Q3 14:01 Lamar Scramble left Yes – – No
    Q3 12:43 Lamar Run left – Yes – Yes
    Q3 12:03 Lamar Scramble middle Yes – – Yes No, sack (Ogunjobi)
    Q4 14:56 Lamar Up middle – Yes – Yes
    Q4 13:05 Lamar QB sweep right – – – No
    Last edited by JimZipCode; 09-30-2019 at 05:12 PM.





  10. #46
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    Re: QB Runs

    Ok. So: four games into the season, there have been 40 plays where Lamar was exposed to extra hits from the defense by running. That's 45 entries on the tables in this thread, less 5 kneels.

    One way to think of this is, extra exposure that Peyton Manning wouldn't have gotten. No one woulda called a QB sweep for Peyton Manning. No one would have encouraged Peyton Manning to pull the ball down and run for 10 yds when his receivers were covered. Peyton woulda just thrown it away. But Lamar is encouraged to pick up those yards with his legs, and keep the chains moving.

    Note this data does not and will not match Lamar's official rushing attempts. I've got a 2-pt conversion try in here; I've got plays that were nullified by penalty; and I've got plays where Lamar transitioned to a scrambler, but didn't get back to the line, so officially he was sacked.


    Total Plays 40 –
    Scrambles 16 40.0%
    Options 9 22.5%
    “Maybes” 7 –
    sum 16 40.0%
    Hits 21 52.5%
    “sort of” 3 –
    sum 24 60.0%


    40% of Lamar's runs have been on scrambles! That number is higher than I would have expected it to be.

    In terms of options, it can be tough for me as a layman to tell for sure between "true" options and routine fakes. In these tables I've listed several plays as "maybe"; also one as "???" Lumping those together as plays with "option elements" (whether a true option or just a fake), 40% of Lamar's runs have been on options or with option window-dressing. Add in another two plays that I classed as fakes without a true option, that goes up to 45%.

    So: 40% scrambles and 40% options, that leaves 20% "called" runs. 8 plays. Includes a QB sweep on a 2-pt conversion attempt, a QB draw in the Red Zone, a QB sneak a 4th down try, and a few random runs. There's no way at all for me to know if those random ones were "called" from the sidelines, or decisions for Lamar at the line if he gets a certain look from the D.


    Considering all 40 of these plays, Lamar is getting hit on over half of them, 52.5%. That's too goddam many, as far as I'm concerned.

    And I'm underplaying it. There's a few plays I classed as "barely hit", or "not really hit", or hit "just a little". (One of these was the TD in KC, where Lamar spun off the defender and into the end zone.) Add those in, and Lamar is getting hit on 60% of these plays. Should those extra few be counted? IMO a football player wouldn't consider those to be "hits". On the other hand, we don't want our QB to be taking "hits" like other football players do.

    I dunno, maybe that's good news. My unfounded impression is that Lamar was taking hits on a much higher pct of his runs last season. If he's cut it almost in half, and he's still 22-yrs-old and only made 12 starts, then maybe that represents good progress. Maybe he'll cut that again next offseason, and be around 35%. That would be nice. I think that tends to be the progression with running QBs; and it's easy to forget he's still so young.

    Anyway: today Lamar is on pace to take 84 hits over the course of this season, that Peyton Manning wouldn't take.

    I'm not in love with that number. But it is worth mentioning that it's less than half of his rushing attempts from last season.
    "A wise man doesn't have knowledge of everything. Only idiots know everything."
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  11. #47
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    Re: QB Runs

    Rough notes on Pittsburgh:

    Q1 12:30 scramble hit no
    Q1 10:55 scramble hit some (challenged defender for extra yardage)
    Q1 9:15 run left option yes hit yes
    Q1 6:45 run mid-left scramble yes hit yes (pen added on to run)
    Q1 5:30 run left option yes hit no OOB
    Q1 1:36 run left option yes hit yes

    Q3 13:10 run right option yes hit yes
    Q3 9:05 QB sneak on 4th & inches hit yes

    Q4 14:52 up middle scrmable yes hit yes
    Q4 14:20 run left option yes hit yes
    Q4 2:35 run right scamble yes hit no
    Q4 1:30 run right option no hit yes

    OT 7:00 run left option no hit yes
    OT 6:05 run left option no (busted play?) hit yes





  12. Re: QB Runs

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Rough notes on Pittsburgh:

    Q1 12:30 scramble hit no
    Q1 10:55 scramble hit some (challenged defender for extra yardage)
    Q1 9:15 run left option yes hit yes
    Q1 6:45 run mid-left scramble yes hit yes (pen added on to run)
    Q1 5:30 run left option yes hit no OOB
    Q1 1:36 run left option yes hit yes

    Q3 13:10 run right option yes hit yes
    Q3 9:05 QB sneak on 4th & inches hit yes

    Q4 14:52 up middle scrmable yes hit yes
    Q4 14:20 run left option yes hit yes
    Q4 2:35 run right scamble yes hit no
    Q4 1:30 run right option no hit yes

    OT 7:00 run left option no hit yes
    OT 6:05 run left option no (busted play?) hit yes
    Here's what I've got (not sure how well it lines up, Sunday's are too crazy for me now).
    q time type gain detail
    1
    12:37
    scramble
    8
    (12:37) (Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles right tackle pushed ob at BLT 49 for 8 yards (Te.Edmunds).
    1
    10:59
    scramble
    2
    (10:59) (Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at PIT 35 for 2 yards (J.Haden).
    1
    09:20
    run
    8
    (9:20) (Shotgun) L.Jackson left tackle pushed ob at PIT 12 for 8 yards (S.Nelson).
    1
    06:46
    scramble
    9
    (6:46) (Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles left guard to PIT 16 for 9 yards (M.Barron). PENALTY on PIT-M.Barron, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 16.
    1
    06:22
    run
    7
    (6:22) (Shotgun) L.Jackson left end pushed ob at PIT 4 for 7 yards (S.Nelson).
    2
    01:36
    run
    8
    (1:36) (Shotgun) L.Jackson left end to BLT 19 for 8 yards (Te.Edmunds).
    3
    13:16
    run
    4
    (13:16) (Shotgun) L.Jackson right tackle to BLT 40 for 4 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).
    3
    09:10
    run
    1
    (9:10) L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 44, and recovers at PIT 44. L.Jackson to PIT 43 for 1 yard (B.Dupree).
    4
    15:00
    scramble
    5
    (15:00) (Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to PIT 19 for 5 yards (C.Heyward).
    4
    14:21
    run
    7
    (14:21) (Shotgun) L.Jackson left end to PIT 12 for 7 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).
    4
    02:37
    scramble
    2
    (2:37) (Shotgun) L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at BLT 27 for 2 yards (M.Hilton).
    4
    01:35
    run
    5
    (1:35) (Shotgun) L.Jackson right tackle to PIT 30 for 5 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).
    5
    07:27
    run
    3
    (7:27) (Shotgun) L.Jackson left end to PIT 31 for 3 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).
    5
    06:12
    run
    1
    (6:12) (Shotgun) L.Jackson left end to PIT 28 for 1 yard (B.Dupree).
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