Can we all take a moment to laugh at the Browns?

[WNCRavensFan]

Yep, and it's a reasonable thing to do. The Lions fans, for example, absolutely should be crying tears of joy for having their first home playoff win since 1957.

The big difference is the O's are stocked with young ascending talent, and budget-wise, they should have plenty of room for growth (ownership issues aside.)

The Browns chances by all reasonable expectations will be declining every year going forward as they lose good players to the cap, and have no high draft picks to get cheap elite talent.

You got it. So much of fan reaction is about expectations.

[Ravenswintitle]

Everything points to the owner to won't take accountability for his own gigantic mistake.

I doubt this was Stefanski's decision.

Yup - look at that playoff game against the Texans and you'll say their defense was terrible. So fire the offensive coaches...
Gota is right, it's about fixing Watson. They have no choice but to pour everything into that

[Bhcforlife]

I like that they got a glimpse of vintage Watson, the Watson they hoped they were getting, in that second half against us and then never got the chance to see if that was a one off or start of a turnaround, lol.

[Bhcforlife]

It definitely seems that Stefanski IS going to get coach of the year.....but how about Demeco Ryans? Who on Earth thought they'd be in the playoffs? If I had a vote, that's where my vote would be for COTY.

Why are you guys saying Stefanski is going to get COTY? Is he the betting favorite or something? IMO there's no shot he gets that over Ryans or Campbell and I'd have a few others ahead too, including Harbaugh. Can't be faulted because you have a good team and/or expected to be good. Yeah, Stefanski had a lot of QBs play for him this year and they made the playoffs, cool...the Ravens beat 10 teams over .500, the most in history. One of these is more impressive than the other.

[VermontRaven]

Why are you guys saying Stefanski is going to get COTY? Is he the betting favorite or something? IMO there's no shot he gets that over Ryans or Campbell and I'd have a few others ahead too, including Harbaugh. Can't be faulted because you have a good team and/or expected to be good. Yeah, Stefanski had a lot of QBs play for him this year and they made the playoffs, cool...the Ravens beat 10 teams over .500, the most in history. One of these is more impressive than the other.

Yup....all the articles I have read seem to think it's a given that he is COTY...I don't think he should be, but it sounds like he WILL be. Just to verify, I just looked up odds:

NFL COACH OF THE YEAR ODDS
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) -950
DeMeco Ryans (Texans) +750
Shane Steichen (Colts) +1200
Dan Campbell (Lions) +1900
John Harbaugh (Ravens) +2200
Sean McVay (Rams) +5000
Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +6000
Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) +8500
Todd Bowles (Buccaneers) +13000
Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) +13000
Mike Tomlin (Steelers) +20000
Matt Lafleur (Packers) +20000
Doug Pederson (Jaguars) +20000
Nick Sirianni (Eagles) +20000

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odd...h-of-the-year/

NFL Coach of the Year odds

Player Team DraftKings
Kevin Stefanski Browns Cleveland Browns -1,000
Shane Steichen Colts Indianapolis Colts +1,100
DeMeco Ryans Steelers Houston Texans +1,100
Dan Campbell Lions Detroit Lions +1,500
Mike McDaniel Dolphins Miami Dolphins +2,000
John Harbaugh Steelers Baltimore Ravens +2,500
Sean McVay Rams Los Angeles Rams +3,000
Kyle Shanahan 49ers San Francisco 49ers +3,500

https://www.covers.com/nfl/nfl-coach-of-the-year-odds

[HotInHere]

Why are you guys saying Stefanski is going to get COTY? Is he the betting favorite or something? IMO there's no shot he gets that over Ryans or Campbell and I'd have a few others ahead too, including Harbaugh. Can't be faulted because you have a good team and/or expected to be good. Yeah, Stefanski had a lot of QBs play for him this year and they made the playoffs, cool...the Ravens beat 10 teams over .500, the most in history. One of these is more impressive than the other.

Look at it this way: the Browns won 11 games, tied for second best record in the conference. Their starting QB was injured for all but six games. Their starting LT missed nine games. Their star running back that the offense is built around was lost for the season in the second game. They lost their starting RT in the opener. They managed to get to the playoffs with 11 games started by a combination of PJ Walker, DTR, Jeff Driskell, and January Joe.

That's a nice resume for COTY.

[Shas]

Perhaps coach of the year should be someone who has turned a program around, changed the culture AND has the team headed in the right direction. This isn't necessarily Stefanski. To me it's Ryans or Campbell.

I think this is fair, and agree with it. But I still think Stefanski will get it for salvaging the season, regardless of what we here think of the opponents they did it against or the sustainability of this showing. Remember the voting is prior to the playoff bomb, too.

In other words, how you or I think about it seems to be different than how the voters see it. For one, "change culture" is difficult to assess. Campbell seems to fit the bill. But so did Vrabel two years ago, wouldn't you say. And you really don't know if a program has been turned around. I am not necessarily confident in the Lions. Look at how Love and the Packers performed last week. And the Bears have a shitload of top picks to add talent with. Even the Vikings were a playoff team a year ago and played every single game close this year.

The Texans are a better bet for being turned around, but probably more so because they have the QB in place than because they have Ryan.

Let's dig deeper into the recent history of COTY (includes number of COTY awards and total AP votes) and what voters were seeing...

2010 Bill Belichick (3) New England Patriots 14–2
2011 Jim Harbaugh San Francisco 49ers 13–3
2012 Bruce Arians Indianapolis Colts 9–3
2013 Ron Rivera Carolina Panthers 12–4
2014 Bruce Arians (2) Arizona Cardinals 11–5
2015 Ron Rivera (2) Carolina Panthers 15–1
2016 Jason Garrett Dallas Cowboys 13–3
2017 Sean McVay Los Angeles Rams 11–5
2018 Matt Nagy Chicago Bears 12–4
2019 John Harbaugh Baltimore Ravens 14–2
2020 Kevin Stefanski Cleveland Browns 11–5
2021 Mike Vrabel Tennessee Titans 12–5
2022 Brian Daboll New York Giants 9–7–1

Belichick in 2010? He hardly led a culture change—the team was already headed in the right direction. We know now how much Brady mattered. I'd argue Harbaugh didn't orchestrate a culture change in '19. Credit him for having the balls to bring in Roman and ride Lamar. Again, very QB dependent and really it was about a surprising rise of a team that had been headed in the wrong direction. I might argue '19 wasn't really sustained for the Ravens. Not until this year might that have happened and largely player driven with help from coordinators.

Look at how many of these coaches that led their teams to surprising showings v. expectations saw their teams fall back to earth the next season, often with the coach soon fired. Sometimes the expectations are right and the surprising showing is the anomaly. But voters can't know this in advance.

I said all that to say this: your definition of COTY doesn't match the reality of how coaches are selected. I agree with your premise but I don't think AP voters do. For them it simply boils down to the coach whose team greatly exceeded expectations.

The Browns were 7-5 at the beginning of December and left for dead. And then finished 11-5. Voters don't care how they got there they just see the "save" that Stefanski got.

I think Ryans would be a good candidate for exceeding expectations, but a lot of that impression was based on the big playoff win after votes were cast. Headed into week 18 the Texans were 50/50 to make the playoffs even with a win vs Indy. The Steelers beating the resting Ravens and the Jacksonville collapse saved Houston from being an also-ran in the minds of voters. So, were the Texans surprisingly good enough at that time to push votes to Ryan?

Preseason, the Lions were ranked ninth best in odds to make it to the SuperBowl, one behind the Ravens. Browns were middle of the pack, 15th, before losing all their QBs. Texans were actually 31st, which is why Ryan may still get the nod.

[JimZipCode]

I still think Stefanski will get it for salvaging the season
...
I said all that to say this: your definition of COTY doesn't match the reality of how coaches are selected. ... were the Texans surprisingly good enough at that time to push votes to Ryan?

I'd be shocked it it isn't Demeco. Going from the #2 pick (well deserved!) to winning the division? Even without the playoff win, that's amazing.

I don't have any problem with Campbell & Stefanski getting votes. They did great jobs. Numbers 2 & 3 in some order. But Demeco seems undeniable to me. Again, that's before the playoff win.

It'll be interesting to see what the voters do.

[HotInHere]

I'd be shocked it it isn't Demeco. Going from the #2 pick (well deserved!) to winning the division? Even without the playoff win, that's amazing...

I love what DeMeco is doing, and I think he's a great coach.

But devil's advocate... I've watched a good bit of Stroud this season. That's not coaching. That's a freaking gifted young QB. So however good DeMeco is -- and he flat out ADMITS this -- the success of his team is due to how good Stroud is.

So given that, plus a 10-7 record against a cakewalk schedule (a last place schedule against the AFCS *and* the NFCS? Are you kidding me?) I'm afraid my COTY would go elsewhere. But DeMeco will get one before he's done.

[Ravensforce83]

Why are you guys saying Stefanski is going to get COTY? Is he the betting favorite or something? IMO there's no shot he gets that over Ryans or Campbell and I'd have a few others ahead too, including Harbaugh. Can't be faulted because you have a good team and/or expected to be good. Yeah, Stefanski had a lot of QBs play for him this year and they made the playoffs, cool...the Ravens beat 10 teams over .500, the most in history. One of these is more impressive than the other.

I agree. It is Harbaugh for me. To piggy back on your point, the team had a lead with 2 minutes left in every single game.

I would also like to see Campbell get it.

Stefanski is fine though because of some of the points laid out above

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Shrubbs]

I've always liked Stump Mitchell

[JimZipCode]

however good DeMeco is -- and he flat out ADMITS this -- the success of his team is due to how good Stroud is.

Lots of great coaches credit wins to the players. Ever heard John Harbaugh in a postgame press conference?