Democratic Primary

**darb72** · 09-22-2019, 05:21 PM

Originally Posted by New !

I think Biden is toast at this point. Which is good for Dems, because Trump would probably defeat him. Biden 's strange behavior is enough to turn off a certain percentage of voters and maybe Trump would be able to pull off a victory. I know this is mostly a MAGA board, but I think a lot of you guys might be underestimating how disgusted the average person is by Trump. Most people don't follow politics that closely and just see an orange douche-bag who is constantly being trashed by the mainstream media. I know most of the people in my family and also many of my friends see it this way. I also have a few friends who are MAGA guys and have their reasons for supporting Trump, and the thing they have in common is that they all follow politics very closely. But look at the polling numbers; outside of his base he is deeply unpopular. Pointing out the flaws of the Democratic candidates is all well and good, but I don't think it will be enough to tip the scales in Trump's favor because his flaws are just as bad if not worse.

Yet Trump has a higher approval than Obama.

**ravenmaniac4life** · 09-22-2019, 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by New !

I think Biden is toast at this point. Which is good for Dems, because Trump would probably defeat him. Biden 's strange behavior is enough to turn off a certain percentage of voters and maybe Trump would be able to pull off a victory. I know this is mostly a MAGA board, but I think a lot of you guys might be underestimating how disgusted the average person is by Trump. Most people don't follow politics that closely and just see an orange douche-bag who is constantly being trashed by the mainstream media. I know most of the people in my family and also many of my friends see it this way. I also have a few friends who are MAGA guys and have their reasons for supporting Trump, and the thing they have in common is that they all follow politics very closely. But look at the polling numbers; outside of his base he is deeply unpopular. Pointing out the flaws of the Democratic candidates is all well and good, but I don't think it will be enough to tip the scales in Trump's favor because his flaws are just as bad if not worse.

I think the Democrat Party is toast at this point. Which is good for Trump, because he would probably defeat all of them no matter what. The DNC's strange behavior is enough to turn off a certain percentage of voters and Trump would be able to pull off a major victory. I know this is mostly a MAGA board, but I think a lot of you guys might be underestimating how disgusted the average person is by the Democrat Party. Most people don't follow politics that closely and just see a guy who is constantly being trashed by the mainstream media. I know most of the people in my family and also many of my friends see it this way. I also have a few friends who are Democrats and have their reasons for hating Trump, and the thing they have in common is that they all are emotional headcases. But look at the polling numbers...they said that Hilary would beat him in 2016; according to them, he would lose to Michael Moore too! Pointing out the flaws of the Democratic candidates is all well and good, but because the DNC doesn't have a message outside of "orange man is bad"...they will be left defending a fake Indian as their candidate in 2020.

Everything I wrote is probably more accurate than what you wrote.

**darb72** · 09-22-2019, 05:39 PM

Oh, the democrats have a message. It's, "Hey, we're gonna raise your taxes to give to the lazy fucks too incompetent to be self-reliant".

**steelerhater** · 09-22-2019, 06:17 PM

Originally Posted by New !

I think Biden is toast at this point. Which is good for Dems, because Trump would probably defeat him. Biden 's strange behavior is enough to turn off a certain percentage of voters and maybe Trump would be able to pull off a victory. I know this is mostly a MAGA board, but I think a lot of you guys might be underestimating how disgusted the average person is by Trump. Most people don't follow politics that closely and just see an orange douche-bag who is constantly being trashed by the mainstream media. I know most of the people in my family and also many of my friends see it this way. I also have a few friends who are MAGA guys and have their reasons for supporting Trump, and the thing they have in common is that they all follow politics very closely. But look at the polling numbers; outside of his base he is deeply unpopular. Pointing out the flaws of the Democratic candidates is all well and good, but I don't think it will be enough to tip the scales in Trump's favor because his flaws are just as bad if not worse.

This is what I fear. Like you said, there are a lot of people who don’t really follow what’s going on and believe what the mainstream media says about Trump. There are certainly more uninformed voters than people who understand what’s going on. Misinformation and stupidity may cost Trump the election.

**Ortizer** · 09-22-2019, 07:11 PM

Originally Posted by ravenmaniac4life

I think the Democrat Party is toast at this point. Which is good for Trump, because he would probably defeat all of them no matter what. The DNC's strange behavior is enough to turn off a certain percentage of voters and Trump would be able to pull off a major victory. I know this is mostly a MAGA board, but I think a lot of you guys might be underestimating how disgusted the average person is by the Democrat Party. Most people don't follow politics that closely and just see a guy who is constantly being trashed by the mainstream media. I know most of the people in my family and also many of my friends see it this way. I also have a few friends who are Democrats and have their reasons for hating Trump, and the thing they have in common is that they all are emotional headcases. But look at the polling numbers...they said that Hilary would beat him in 2016; according to them, he would lose to Michael Moore too! Pointing out the flaws of the Democratic candidates is all well and good, but because the DNC doesn't have a message outside of "orange man is bad"...they will be left defending a fake Indian as their candidate in 2020.

Everything I wrote is probably more accurate than what you wrote.

Do you think so? Doesn't seem far fetched to me that people who don't pay attention to politics would be turned off by him. Have you seen how he talks to people? And don't even get started on Twitter. It's really the economy that I would see as the main thing he's got going. Foreign policy isn't going to tip the scales, and people see all the crazy immigration stuff, without the mention he's following Obama's playbook.

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**CarrollCoRaven** · 09-22-2019, 11:19 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

This is what I fear. Like you said, there are a lot of people who don’t really follow what’s going on and believe what the mainstream media says about Trump. There are certainly more uninformed voters than people who understand what’s going on. Misinformation and stupidity may cost Trump the election.

The GOP, when the time is right, needs to flood the airwaves with clever commercials using the New Green Deal as a blueprint for what the Democrats are all about. Throw in Betos gun confiscation plan, free mediacre for all(even illegals), raising taxes, carbon or mileage taxes, socialism, full term abortion, the squad's anti-semetic rhetoric etc. There is lots material to use and tell people that may be hearing this stuff for the very first time cause they sure aren't hearing it on their local news channels. But of course, as Ortizer points out, the Dems have lots of quotes from Trump that they can and will use. Hopefully, people vote their wallets/pocketbooks and policy and not the personality, not that the Democrats have anyone very likeable. Right now all I see in the front runners are a senile flip flopper, a fake Indian Socialist {as Rav says) and a very old and angry Communist. None of them have the ability to charm the socks off of anyone.

**Ortizer** · 09-23-2019, 12:09 AM

Originally Posted by CarrollCoRaven

The GOP, when the time is right, needs to flood the airwaves with clever commercials using the New Green Deal as a blueprint for what the Democrats are all about. Throw in Betos gun confiscation plan, free mediacre for all(even illegals), raising taxes, carbon or mileage taxes, socialism, full term abortion, the squad's anti-semetic rhetoric etc. There is lots material to use and tell people that may be hearing this stuff for the very first time cause they sure aren't hearing it on their local news channels. But of course, as Ortizer points out, the Dems have lots of quotes from Trump that they can and will use. Hopefully, people vote their wallets/pocketbooks and policy and not the personality, not that the Democrats have anyone very likeable. Right now all I see in the front runners are a senile flip flopper, a fake Indian Socialist {as Rav says) and a very old and angry Communist. None of them have the ability to charm the socks off of anyone.

They are pretty much guaranteed to pick someone terrible. They basically shot themselves in the foot with candidate choice last time, and here they are getting set to do it again.

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**darb72** · 09-23-2019, 01:18 AM

Originally Posted by Ortizer

Do you think so? Doesn't seem far fetched to me that people who don't pay attention to politics would be turned off by him. Have you seen how he talks to people? And don't even get started on Twitter. It's really the economy that I would see as the main thing he's got going. Foreign policy isn't going to tip the scales, and people see all the crazy immigration stuff, without the mention he's following Obama's playbook.

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It's all about the money. Democrats don't want the average American to have any, and that shows in their policies. Plus they want to abolish American's private healthcare.

**blah3** · 09-23-2019, 07:39 AM

Originally Posted by darb72

Oh, the democrats have a message. It's, "Hey, we're gonna raise your taxes to give to the lazy fucks too incompetent to be self-reliant".

And the illegals

**New !** · 09-23-2019, 02:49 PM

Originally Posted by darb72

Yet Trump has a higher approval than Obama.

Trump's approval rating is at 42 percent, 4 points lower than his peak. Meanwhile, Obama was around the same approval rating at this point in his first term (he had over 60 percent at the beginning of his term), and he gained about 10-12 points by election time, and beat Romney in a relatively narrow election. Are you suggesting Trump will gain 10+ points in the next ~14 months? It would be unprecedented, he's never been higher than 46. What could he possibly do to raise his approval that much?

**New !** · 09-23-2019, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by ravenmaniac4life

I think the Democrat Party is toast at this point. Which is good for Trump, because he would probably defeat all of them no matter what. The DNC's strange behavior is enough to turn off a certain percentage of voters and Trump would be able to pull off a major victory. I know this is mostly a MAGA board, but I think a lot of you guys might be underestimating how disgusted the average person is by the Democrat Party. Most people don't follow politics that closely and just see a guy who is constantly being trashed by the mainstream media. I know most of the people in my family and also many of my friends see it this way. I also have a few friends who are Democrats and have their reasons for hating Trump, and the thing they have in common is that they all are emotional headcases. But look at the polling numbers...they said that Hilary would beat him in 2016; according to them, he would lose to Michael Moore too! Pointing out the flaws of the Democratic candidates is all well and good, but because the DNC doesn't have a message outside of "orange man is bad"...they will be left defending a fake Indian as their candidate in 2020.

Everything I wrote is probably more accurate than what you wrote.

Lol. Really? Which major poll has the Republicans favorability higher than Dems? And, yes, most pollsters had Hillary defeating Trump in 2016. And she did win the popular vote, so you can't really blame the raw data, which predicted that she was more popular. The people running the polls have adjusted their methodology since they were embarrassed in 2016. I wouldn't count on lightning striking twice. As for accuracy, I guess it depends on your perspective. I would be surprised if you found anything negative about Trump's chances in 2020 to be accurate.

As for your "emotional head-case" comment, I wonder if you realize how closely that applies to your boy, Donald Trump? It's pretty spot on. If you think Warren is going to lose to Trump you have lost your damn mind, in my opinion. Aren't you the guy who calls Harris "the whore" and has a bunch of loony nick-names for the other candidates? Or is that someone else. There are some Trump fanatics on here....I think it will be fun to have some friendly wagers next year when we get close to the election.

**DitkasSausage** · 09-23-2019, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by New !

Lol. Really? Which major poll has the Republicans favorability higher than Dems? And, yes, most pollsters had Hillary defeating Trump in 2016. And she did win the popular vote, so you can't really blame the raw data, which predicted that she was more popular. The people running the polls have adjusted their methodology since they were embarrassed in 2016. I wouldn't count on lightning striking twice. As for accuracy, I guess it depends on your perspective. I would be surprised if you found anything negative about Trump's chances in 2020 to be accurate.

As for your "emotional head-case" comment, I wonder if you realize how closely that applies to your boy, Donald Trump? It's pretty spot on. If you think Warren is going to lose to Trump you have lost your damn mind, in my opinion. Aren't you the guy who calls Harris "the whore" and has a bunch of loony nick-names for the other candidates? Or is that someone else. There are some Trump fanatics on here....I think it will be fun to have some friendly wagers next year when we get close to the election.

I'm not certain, but that isn't what the polls were saying. They had her winning in States. Quinnipiac Presidential polls use weighted data based on the electoral college. It is a cumulative poll based on individual states polls. The polling on Hillary wasn't a "little off"... it was off by almost 15-20%. That puts it out of the range of even a considered scientific poll.

The problem is that polling methods are dated... they mean almost nothing at this point... If you polled, using today's methods, if people would kill their first born for a Klondike Bar, you "could" potentially get the result that 22% of people would... when in reality it was 1-2%