Evidence Suggests That Lamar Jackson Will be Better in 2019

[The Excellector]

My doubts about Lamar have always been the same two things.

His size and play style.

And our coaching staffs ability to develop him as a passer instead of just taking the easy way out and trying to run him into the ground.

It's really less about Lamar and more about my long held distrust of Barb's and his offensive philosophy

As soon as the passing offense struggles, you know the uptick in the carries will come. Harbaugh can’t help himself. He’ll sacrifice his QB’s long term development for short term success. Then, we’ll all be here years later wondering why said QB didn’t develop as much as thought he would or liked.

[Desert Raven]

As soon as the passing offense struggles, you know the uptick in the carries will come. Harbaugh can’t help himself. He’ll sacrifice his QB’s long term development for short term success. Then, we’ll all be here years later wondering why said QB didn’t develop as much as thought he would or liked.

Harbaugh calls the offensive plays now?

[JimZipCode]

As soon as the passing offense struggles, you know the uptick in the carries will come. Harbaugh can’t help himself. He’ll sacrifice his QB’s long term development for short term success. Then, we’ll all be here years later wondering why said QB didn’t develop as much as thought he would or liked.

Love it when you predict the future.

[The Excellector]

Harbaugh calls the offensive plays now?

Harbaugh has the power to dictate the flow of the offense and defense as he sees fit. The actual play-calling is left to his coordinator. The game philosophy comes from him. Think about all of the games where they had a good lead going into halftime and Harbaugh would tell the CBS sideline reporter that they’re just going to lean on their defense the rest of the way. Think about the games where they tried to let Lamar throw in the first half and in didn’t go as well, only to see an uptick in his carries in the second half and the teams rush attempts overall. That direction comes from Harbaugh. Think about the times you saw players on the sideline arguing with the coaches, following conservative third down play calls. The play itself comes from the Coordinator. The directive comes from Harbaugh.

Don’t any of you remember when Bullock was here and the offense would get down into the red zone, sometimes Billick would tell Cavanaugh, “Matt, let’s punch it in here”. The play call itself (How it’s punched in) came from Cavanaugh, but the order to call a run play came from Billick.

[purple_city39]

Harbaugh has the power to dictate the flow of the offense and defense as he sees fit. The actual play-calling is left to his coordinator. The game philosophy comes from him. Think about all of the games where they had a good lead going into halftime and Harbaugh would tell the CBS sideline reporter that they’re just going to lean on their defense the rest of the way. Think about the games where they tried to let Lamar throw in the first half and in didn’t go as well, only to see an uptick in his carries in the second half and the teams rush attempts overall. That direction comes from Harbaugh. Think about the times you saw players on the sideline arguing with the coaches, following conservative third down play calls. The play itself comes from the Coordinator. The directive comes from Harbaugh.

Don’t any of you remember when Bullock was here and the offense would get down into the red zone, sometimes Billick would tell Cavanaugh, “Matt, let’s punch it in here”. The play call itself (How it’s punched in) came from Cavanaugh, but the order to call a run play came from Billick.

What about when Flacco near the top of the league in pass attempts? His 614 attempts in 2013 is still 38th most all time and was 5th most that season. But that's nothing. In 2016, Flacco threw the ball 672 times. That's currently the 6th most in NFL history and was 2nd most that season (one attempt behind Brees). Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have never attempted more than Joe's 614 in a season.
Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Dan Marino, and all but 5 QBs have never attempted more than Joe's 672. Those were Harbaugh years.

In 2014 and 2017, Flacco averaged 34+, attempts per game. In the injury seasons of 2015 and 2018, Joe averaged 41+ attempts per game before getting hurt. None of this includes sacks. So far, that's 2013-2017.

Harbaugh has 1 season as a HC where the team ran more than they passed (08). Since 2010, the team threw the ball 55% or more every season except 2018 (52% due to the mid season QB change). He's had 3 seasons since the start of 2011 where the team threw the ball over 60% of the time, and were on pace to make it a 4th season last year before Joe got hurt. That means, if not for a Flacco injury, the Harbaugh coached Ravens would have thrown the ball 60% or more in 4 of the last 8 seasons, and would have been at 55% or higher in the other 4.

So I don't get where this narrative that all Harbaugh wants to do is run the ball even comes from. He ran a lot in 8 games with Jackson. He likes to run out the clock, like most coaches, with a lead. All that equals a coach that likes to run all day??

[JimZipCode]

If you want to get hype about Lamar, Cian Fahey's web site Pre-Snap Reads ought to do it for you.

(By the way, I've been throwing around a 6% drop rate for the Ravens receivers on Lamar's passes. I incorrectly attributed my source for that to Solak. I actually got it from Fahey's Pre-Snap Reads.)

Here, Fahey projects the 2019 QBs:

2019 Quarterback Tiers and Rankings
https://presnapreads.com/2019-quarte...-and-rankings/

...these rankings are projecting forward into the 2019 season and are not based on raw statistical output. They are based on which quarterbacks help their teams win the most. Some won’t win many games because they play on bad teams, others will win many games in spite of their own individual performance.

Here's the list. Fahey has a small blurb about each player, all of which are worth reading. I pulled some of the ones I find most interesting (or counter-intuitive) into here; but the whole list is well worth reading.

In two parts, for length.

1. Andrew Luck – Stud

2018 Charting Data – Andrew Luck was 67.9 percent accurate in 2018, the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. He was the top-ranked intermediate passer and the second-most accurate deep passer...

2. Aaron Rodgers – Stud
3. Patrick Mahomes – Stud
4. Matt Ryan – Stud

2018 Charting Data – Matt Ryan had 65 ‘Clutch Attempts’ in 2018. Clutch Attempts are throws that came after the 05:00 mark of the fourth quarter. On these plays he was 75.5 percent accurate and didn’t throw an interception, making him the best quarterback in the league late in games.

5. Cam Newton – Stud

2018 Charting Data – Cam Newton threw only 7.2 percent of his passes further than 20 yards downfield last season. That rate ranked second worst in the league, ahead of only Nick Mullens.

Despite not being able to push the ball downfield for four quarters of games last season, Cam Newton was very effective in Norv Turner’s offense. Without his deep ball, Newton relied heavily on his ability to lead receivers to space with sustained velocity and touch throws on intermediate routes. He was the second-best intermediate passer in the NFL last season. Prior to last season, Newton was consistently one of the best deep passers in the league. That should return when healthy in 2019.

6. Dak Prescott – Emerging Stud

2018 Charting Data – Dak Prescott was the sixth-most accurate passer in the NFL last season, ranking ninth on underneath throws, 12th on intermediate throws and ninth on deep throws. He was the fifth-best passer in the league when throwing to the first down line from obvious passing situations.

Few quarterback’s reputations are so far from the reality of their actual performance than Prescott’s. He has developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the league. That hasn’t been reflected statistically because of the Cowboys’ combination of limited skill position talent and Jason Garrett’s awful play designs. Amari Cooper’s success in Dallas was a reflection of the upgrade in quality of service he got by going from Derek Carr to Prescott.

Prescott is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league. He excels in the pre-snap phase of the game and it’s not a coincidence that the Cowboys offense is at its smoothest when he’s in shotgun calling audibles and moving players around into different alignments. Those are the plays when the coaching staff is irrelevant. ...

The Cowboys have wasted Prescott’s rookie wage scale salary and anchored his production over recent years.

7. Marcus Mariota – Emerging Stud

2018 Charting Data – Marcus Mariota had the best depth-adjusted accuracy percentage when throwing behind the down-and-distance last season and the best accuracy percentage when throwing to/past the first down line from behind the down-and-distance also.

The second-most accurate quarterback in the NFL last year and the best deep passer at 61.5 percent. Marcus Mariota doesn’t possess a huge arm but he generates huge velocity on intermediate throws to hit closing windows with timing and anticipation. His pocket movement is outstanding but he has dealt with an abnormal amount of pressure playing behind often overwhelmed offensive lines.

8. Tom Brady – Ageing Hall of Famer

Over the first couple months of the season, Tom Brady will be better than the eighth-best quarterback in the league. But like his peers, Brady’s age is a factor in his performance over the second half of the season. ...
Brady is still great and he has aged better than any of his peers, hence why he’s ranked above them, but football is such a physically-draining sport that he’s unlikely to be a top five or six starter over the final months of the year. That won’t prevent them from winning another Super Bowl as a team. He’s not Eli Manning.
It’s not Sony Michel’s offense entering the season, but he and James White may be carrying it again by the end of the 2019 season.

9. Drew Brees – Ageing Hall of Famer

2018 Charting Data – Drew Brees was accurate on 79.9 percent of his throws last season, the highest rate in the league, but when adjusted for depth his accuracy dropped to 63.5 percent, fifth-most accurate in the league.
...
Brees had a comfortable regular season last year. He played to an MVP level but he was rarely tasked with carrying the offense. Only six times in 15 regular season starts did he throw 35+ passes. He was able to preserve himself by taking that final regular season game off and finish the regular season with fewer than 500 attempts.
And yet, his arm still lost velocity in the playoffs and his performances dipped significantly. It’s been a trend for Brees as he’s gotten older. A trend that is only worsening now that he’s reached his forties.
Brees, like his counterparts in this tier, is still one of the league’s great quarterbacks, he just lacks the stamina to be that great quarterback for 19 games in a single season.

10. Philip Rivers – Ageing Hall of Famer
11. Russell Wilson – High-End Starter in Right Role
12. Lamar Jackson – High-End Youngster

2018 Charting Data – Lamar Jackson was the 16th-most accurate quarterback in the league last year, the highest ranked rookie quarterback. Jackson had the fifth-highest failed reception rate, with six percent of his throws being dropped by his receivers.

The most unfairly judged quarterback in the NFL last season. Just because he can run and does so successfully, it does not mean that he cannot throw the ball. Jackson was surprisingly accurate over the course of last season while also showing off incredible pocket movement. He’s a natural passer who is capable of carrying an offense with his legs also.

What really limited Jackson’s impact as a passer last season was the lack of receiver talent he had to throw to. That may not improve in 2019 since they’re depending on rookies and Michael Floyd. The offense will have its most success running the ball once again, but that could aid Jackson’s continued development even if it limits his raw statistical output over the short term.

13. Deshaun Watson – High-End Youngster

2018 Charting Data – After throwing 17.5 percent of his passes deep during his rookie season, Deshaun Watson threw only 9.8 percent of his passes deep in 2018.

Deshaun Watson took some steps forward during his second season but also some big steps back. The most significant issue he had last year was taking sacks. The Texans offensive line wasn’t particularly good but it was made to look worse by a quarterback who failed to get the ball out against blitzes, moved into pressure too often and lost his discipline with his feet when the pocket closed around him. Watson takes too many sacks and his underneath accuracy dropped to 33rd in the league after ranking 21st the prior year.
...
But besides those issues, Watson also showed off some high-level ball placement and understanding of how to throw to specific routes. His upside is obvious for anyone to see.

14. Carson Wentz – Average Starter

Wentz is tough to rank because he’s been a completely different passer in each of his three seasons in the league.

15. Jared Goff – Average Starter
16. Baker Mayfield – High-Potential Youngster

2018 Charting Data – Baker Mayfield threw 10 touchdowns on deep throws last season, one of only five quarterbacks to reach double-digits. He was the 32nd-ranked passer in the NFL last season with a depth-adjusted accuracy percentage of 50.7.

Hue Jackson’s offense asked too much of him and then Freddie Kitchens offense carried him. Baker Mayfield wasn’t really in a good position to be evaluated at any point during his rookie season. He made some spectacular throws but he was also inconsistent diagnosing coverages and placing the ball on straight dropbacks. Mayfield’s biggest challenge as a rookie was hitting intermediate throws, he was accurate on 45.2 percent of his throws into the 11-20 yard range, ranking 34th in the league out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks.

Of course, those throws are about to get a lot easier with Odell Beckham on the outside.

[JimZipCode]

2019 Quarterback Tiers and Rankings, part two:

17. Mitchell Trubisky – High-Variance Starter

2018 Charting Data – Mitchell Trubisky didn’t rank in the top 20 for accuracy to any level of the field. He was the 24th-ranked underneath passer, the 27th-ranked intermediate passer and the 21st-ranked deep passer.

Missed opportunities were the narrative of Trubisky’s second season in the NFL. After impressing as a rookie in a limiting offense, Trubisky’s numbers were elevated by an outstanding supporting cast and smart scheme during his second season. His accuracy needs to be far more consistent in Matt Nagy’s offense. Nagy creates wide windows for him to throw into but he appears less comfortable hitting wide open receivers than he is hitting tight windows.

Trubisky also relied heavily on defensive backs dropping his ugly throws last year. Far too often he misread coverages and heaved the ball directly to a defender instead of locating the open option. Trubisky’s potential is sky high because his ball placement can be extremely impressive and he goes through stretches of great decision making to pair with his outstanding athleticism, but he needs to be far more consistent.

18. Sam Darnold – High-Variance Youngster
19. Ben Roethlisberger – Declining Former Star

2018 Charting Data – Ben Roethlisberger was 47.8 percent accurate last season, only Josh Allen was worse than him. Roethlisberger was also the worst passer in the league after the 05:00 mark in the fourth quarter, thanks to a 33.6 depth-adjusted accuracy percentage.

Ben Roethlisberger threw 36 interceptable passes in 2018. His inaccuracy on downfield throws and his determination to throw games away late in games has become too prevalent over recent years. He’s spent all those years blaming everyone around him to the point that he now enters 2019 without Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Unless Roethlisberger reverses his recent performances, the Steelers offensive outlook is bleak this year

20. Matthew Stafford – Low-End Starter

2018 Charting Data – 25.2 percent of Matthew Stafford’s yards last season were gained on screens. Only 11.9 percent of his attempts were screens. He had a 45.1 depth-adjusted accuracy percentage on third down, making him the 30th-ranked third down passer in the league last season.
Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston share a lot of similarities, but Stafford generally hits more difficult throws and has clearly superior athleticism. Wildly inaccurate ball placement and a commitment to coverage misreads that lead to ugly interceptable passes have held Stafford back throughout his whole career. Expecting any different at this stage of his career would be completely irrational.

21. Andy Dalton – Low-End Starter
22. Derek Carr – Low-End Starter
23. Nick Foles – Low-End Starter
24. Eli Manning – Low-End Starter
25. Kyler Muray – Low-End Starter/Rookie

In Kyler Murray the Cardinals drafted big plays. Some of those big plays will be for the offense, some will be for the defense. It gets forgotten now but Russell Wilson, the player the Cardinals hope Murray can be, struggled a lot over the first half of his rookie season. It’s highly unlikely that Murray comes in and is a polished player from the start of his rookie season. It’s up to Kliff Kingsbury to set him up for success early on.

26. Dwayne Haskins – Low-End Starter/Rookie

Haskins’ accuracy is the biggest concern. He showed off impressive pocket movement and an ability to diagnose coverages in college but his ball placement was Mettenberger-like at times. There’s a lot to like with Haskins game but he’ll likely need a year of struggling before he can advance into a competent starter.

27. Kirk Cousins – Finds Ways to Lose Games
28. Jimmy Garoppolo – Low-End Starter/Unknown
29. Jameis Winston – Backup

2018 Charting Data – 6.3 percent of Jameis Winston’s attempts in 2018 were deemed interceptable, the 32nd-ranked interceptable pass rate in the league.

30. Josh Allen – Athlete Playing Quarterback

2018 Charting Data – Josh Allen was the least accurate quarterback ever charted, he was 41.9 percent accurate last season, almost 30 percent below league-leader Andrew Luck.
Josh Allen offered no redeeming qualities as a passer during his rookie season. His athleticism as a scrambler and breaking tackles behind the line of scrimmage allowed him to be an effective athlete, but that athleticism only manifested itself in a big arm as a passer. He showed no subtlety working the pocket and no consistency diagnosing coverages. More often than not he ran himself into pressure or took himself away from open receivers to throw to.

31. Joe Flacco – Backup

2018 Charting Data – Joe Flacco was accurate on 30.8 percent of his deep throws in 2018, the worst rate in the league. Flacco was the second-least accurate passer in the league after the 05:00 mark of the fourth quarter, better only than division rival Ben Roethlisberger.
Flacco’s biggest problem doesn’t show up in his charting. He doesn’t execute the offense as designed, meaning the open throws he doesn’t physically miss he misses by not seeing them. Flacco’s footwork is a disaster, he shows no poise against pressure and he too often throws into coverage rather than locating the open option. He’s old and has endured his body being broken down by major injuries over recent years. There is no upside to the Broncos starting him at this point.

32. Josh Rosen – Low-Upside Youngster

[JimZipCode]

What about when Flacco near the top of the league in pass attempts? His 614 attempts in 2013 is still 38th most all time and was 5th most that season. But that's nothing. In 2016, Flacco threw the ball 672 times. That's currently the 6th most in NFL history and was 2nd most that season (one attempt behind Brees). Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have never attempted more than Joe's 614 in a season.
Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Dan Marino, and all but 5 QBs have never attempted more than Joe's 672. Those were Harbaugh years.

In 2014 and 2017, Flacco averaged 34+, attempts per game. In the injury seasons of 2015 and 2018, Joe averaged 41+ attempts per game before getting hurt. None of this includes sacks. So far, that's 2013-2017.

Harbaugh has 1 season as a HC where the team ran more than they passed (08). Since 2010, the team threw the ball 55% or more every season except 2018 (52% due to the mid season QB change). He's had 3 seasons since the start of 2011 where the team threw the ball over 60% of the time, and were on pace to make it a 4th season last year before Joe got hurt. That means, if not for a Flacco injury, the Harbaugh coached Ravens would have thrown the ball 60% or more in 4 of the last 8 seasons, and would have been at 55% or higher in the other 4.

So I don't get where this narrative that all Harbaugh wants to do is run the ball even comes from.

Now, now. Ex has explained to us many times that Joe's high attempts don't count, because [reasons].

Harbaugh may have had to throw it a lot, in 9 of his 11 seasons as a HC. And he may have been a prized assistant on Andy Reid teams that threw it a lot from 1999 to '07 and went to a bunch of conf champship games. But Harbs still doesn't know what league he's in, and every year he plans to run a leather helmet offense. It's just circumstance that has diverted him each time.

[Mmcclend]

Now, now. Ex has explained to us many times that Joe's high attempts don't count, because [reasons].

Harbaugh may have had to throw it a lot, in 9 of his 11 seasons as a HC. And he may have been a prized assistant on Andy Reid teams that threw it a lot from 1999 to '07 and went to a bunch of conf champship games. But Harbs still doesn't know what league he's in, and every year he plans to run a leather helmet offense. It's just circumstance that has diverted him each time.

Lmao!

[HbgPARavenfan]

What about when Flacco near the top of the league in pass attempts? His 614 attempts in 2013 is still 38th most all time and was 5th most that season. But that's nothing. In 2016, Flacco threw the ball 672 times. That's currently the 6th most in NFL history and was 2nd most that season (one attempt behind Brees). Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have never attempted more than Joe's 614 in a season.
Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Dan Marino, and all but 5 QBs have never attempted more than Joe's 672. Those were Harbaugh years.

In 2014 and 2017, Flacco averaged 34+, attempts per game. In the injury seasons of 2015 and 2018, Joe averaged 41+ attempts per game before getting hurt. None of this includes sacks. So far, that's 2013-2017.

Harbaugh has 1 season as a HC where the team ran more than they passed (08). Since 2010, the team threw the ball 55% or more every season except 2018 (52% due to the mid season QB change). He's had 3 seasons since the start of 2011 where the team threw the ball over 60% of the time, and were on pace to make it a 4th season last year before Joe got hurt. That means, if not for a Flacco injury, the Harbaugh coached Ravens would have thrown the ball 60% or more in 4 of the last 8 seasons, and would have been at 55% or higher in the other 4.

So I don't get where this narrative that all Harbaugh wants to do is run the ball even comes from. He ran a lot in 8 games with Jackson. He likes to run out the clock, like most coaches, with a lead. All that equals a coach that likes to run all day??

The problem with the flacco threw a bunch narrative is that it lacks context. The times he threw a bunch we're because our RB had to dodge 6 defenders to get back to the LOS.

No one can really argue with a straight face that harbs isn't one of the most conservative head coaches in the league, and our playcalling for years has been beyond predictable for the average Raven fan, let alone defensive coordinators. And that has spanned several OCs by this point

[The Excellector]

The problem with the flacco threw a bunch narrative is that it lacks context. The times he threw a bunch we're because our RB had to dodge 6 defenders to get back to the LOS.

No one can really argue with a straight face that harbs isn't one of the most conservative head coaches in the league, and our playcalling for years has been beyond predictable for the average Raven fan, let alone defensive coordinators. And that has spanned several OCs by this point

Furthermore, no one can argue with a straight face that Harbaugh went into those seasons with the intention of throwing that many times. Never once did he go into the season with that plan for winning. It wasn’t until Flacco started getting tripped up by his own linemen, on the way to handing the ball off to the RB, it wasn’t until the run was that bad, that he almost had no choice.

Furthermore, let’s not act like a great deal of those pass attempts weren’t conservative checkdowns. They weren’t aggressive throws. Throwing doesn’t automatically equate to aggressive anymore than running automatically equates to conservative, but we know what Harbaugh is like.

[edromeo]

When the stats don't match the narrative....then maybe the narrative is wrong? *ducks*

Either Harbs doesn't dictate the offensive philosophy to his coordinators OR Harb's dictates the offensive philosophy but allows his OCs to willfully and blatantly disregard his directives.