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Thread: Lamar statistical comps
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06-25-2019, 05:00 PM #49Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Right back at you, Jim. Quality discussion on Lamar can be hard to come by with all the trolling on both sides. The ourlads data was something I discovered recently. Frankly, I was surprised that it was that low. The wobbles, general inconsistencies, and watching him throw deep made me question his arm strength, and that reading gave me some confirmation for what I was seeing. But that number is pretty low. I think, right now, it’s fringy but adequate in the system he is running. If the mechanics clean up and he improves, and it shows I misjudged his arm strength, then he’ll have more room for error as he continues to grow and use the whole field. He still has to continue to grow and use the whole field though. In my opinion, those are two big obstacles to overcome that cap his upside. If I’m right about his arm, the floor is a system qb who has enough to play in a highly specialized offense. That will leave us with several ups and downs as defenses scheme to take away. If I’m right about his arm AND he improves throwing to all parts of the field, the mid case scenario is a slightly below average passer who can thrive as a runner provided he stays at the point of diminished returns. If I’m wrong about his arm, then his floor stays the same, but his upside is an above average passer who can be deadly with the run. I don’t think he’ll ever be the thrower that Wilson or Watson are, he simply has way too much to improve upon and everything would have to go right. It’s possible, but I don’t think it’s likely. I don’t see the hall of fame upside that you do. I suppose it’s possible if everything goes right, but that could be said about almost any respectable pro prospect. I guess my expectations are just tempered. Too many question marks as a thrower.
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06-25-2019, 05:12 PM #50Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
I’d actually be pretty interested to see what the board consensus is when actually scouting Lamar and not just arguing or trolling each other. Is the perception of a cap on arm strength and functional throwing the football reason that truly divides both sides?
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06-25-2019, 05:55 PM #51Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
The "football" division is over accuracy.
One group believes that Lamar's accuracy issues are intractable, as encapsulated by that bounced ball on a swing pass to a RB in the left flat. His best college completion% was 59, and QBs don't improve on that number when they get to the NFL – the defenders are just too good. That puts a hard cap on how accurate he will ever be in the league. It's all flutterballs and adventures in checkdowns from here on out.
Another group believes that Lamar has great natural touch and placement, as evidenced by the long TD to Mandrews and intermediate passes to TEs on the right sideline while rolling out. His accuracy issues all stem from inconsistent mechanics from the waist down. He just needs some focused work on his feet and stepping into his throws, and his short & intermediate perentages will jump.
I don't think there's any "general" division over Lamar's arm strength. You're honestly the first person I've seen raise a question.
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06-25-2019, 05:59 PM #52Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
I’m also lumping them together under the umbrella of functional throwing.
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06-25-2019, 09:20 PM #53
Re: Lamar statistical comps
Um ...I’m just a dumb ass pipe welder /plumber but 66% is 2/3. I mean 66.6666% but who’s counting.
Also. In your first Swordeque run on propaganda post you only used QBs in the first two rounds. So that only counts the 5 guys I said. So by your formula 2/3 or 66% of them will improve. So 2/3 or 66% or 5 is 3ish. So that leaves 2 to decline or stay Pat.
Now if 75% inprove in rating then that’s 4 ( 3.75 exactly). So that’s 1 to regress.
So which two will regress in comp% and which one will regress in rating?
“You gonna do something .....or just stand there and bleed” Wyatt Earp
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06-26-2019, 08:21 AM #54
Re: Lamar statistical comps
I don't understand why people are upset at attempts, when Jim isolated that variable by comparing Jackson to the average QB who started less than 10 games his rookie year. Also, why would attempts matter anyway? 170 attempts is more than enough of a sample size for him to be comparable to any first year QB. It's not like he threw 5 passes. If anything, the guys who threw more balls have more experience, and should have gotten better the more they attempted... right? Am I missing something?
Great work Jim."That's not Donovan McNabb."
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06-26-2019, 08:27 AM #55
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06-26-2019, 10:38 AM #56Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
I thought about this a little and wanted to expand. I'll use myself as an example. When I was younger, I was a baseball player. Not a very good one, but I could throw. That's really all I could do. It never translated to pitching or anything other than being able to long toss a ball over 320 ft with ease and throw pretty hard on a line when I didn't have anything else to think about. My hands are long but skinny, so grabbing a football was fairly awkward for me (and buying golf gloves is a royal pain). Give me an undersized ball and I could have probably made any throw asked of me, but a full sized ball meant that I had to make weird adjustments and had power leaks in my throwing motion. I'd bomb a deep ball pretty well, but then turn around on the same throw and throw a helicopter instead of a wounded duck that went maybe half as far as I wanted. I had a lot of accuracy issues and my passes came out fairly soft.
Using my lingo, I would have had poor functional throwing ability and (relatively) good raw arm talent. However, a lot of things kept me from accessing it. I wasn't inherently inaccurate so much as the compensations I had to make to try to achieve my raw talent lead to power lapses and accuracy issues. So in my opinion, functional throwing includes strength and accuracy in a game situation, not just zip on throws.
Applying this to my Lamar analysis, perhaps his, as of now, limited functional throwing ability and pressing to access his raw strength is leading to his mixture of accuracy lapses and weak, errant throws. If his raw strength is limited, he'd have to press that much harder. If not, then he he'd have to overcome whatever mechanical factors are causing those throws. In my case, no about of training could have overcome the fact that I couldn't reliably grip a football. In Lamar's case, is whatever his issue is something that can be overcome (mechanical) or will it always be something there (any number of factors). And if he can overcome his factors, how good is his arm truly and will it be enough to make every possible throw?
My perception of his functional throwing ability concerns me, and I believe it severely caps his upside to somewhere between a slightly better version of a specialized system qb, to a little below average overall passer who can work out as long as we don't run him past the point of diminished returns. As you said, Jim, the next few months will probably tell us a lot.
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06-26-2019, 11:52 AM #57Veteran Poster
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Off topic a little, but 105.7 just had Omar Kelly on from Miami Dolphins. He talked about how terrible Rosen looked and that he seemingly regressed. That hurts me as a fellow tribe member but at least we are seeing that Lamar is trending up.
And Rosen is a guy who has been to QB schools. But he looks so damn robotics and he's from a wealthy family. Lamar has hunger of a lion in him.
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06-26-2019, 02:26 PM #58Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Sometimes people just can't cut it, for whatever reason. Rosen seems to not really want to work for it, and I guess that means the people who took him off the board completely for character were correct. It's a shame, because based on his skill set in college, I liked him as the safest QB in the draft who was most likely to reach an average or better ceiling.
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06-26-2019, 03:09 PM #59Four-eyed Raven
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06-26-2019, 03:32 PM #60Veteran Poster
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