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Thread: Lamar statistical comps
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06-25-2019, 11:22 AM #37Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
None taken. I believe in my opinion because my analysis of him starts at the NFL level. I'm not scouting (such as it is) him with intent to draft him. I'm trying to make a determination on whether or not he can grow. I believe I gave fair weight to stats, what I saw on the field, and what the scenarios he has faced show he needs to improve upon. Honestly, I think I was very positive toward him on some areas, tried to dispel some of the more silly notions, and fair on what he's good at and needs to improve upon. We can agree to disagree on his pure arm strength. I think it's adequate but limited, and he'll need to improve in areas to become a more complete thrower. I don't see how that's unfair, and nobody is going to mistake his throwing strength for Favre and Allen. If you think it's average, then my logic would say that he has more breathing room as he continues to grow. Either way, he still has a lot of developing to do as an in game thrower.
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06-25-2019, 11:32 AM #38
Re: Lamar statistical comps
Steve, I'm trying to follow - so are you saying he has bad velocity based on his NFL tape?
Did you compare that to his preseason throws? Because I, for one, saw noticeable imporvement WRT velocity."Cause if you ain’t pissed off for greatness, that just means you’re okay with being mediocre, and ain’t no man in here okay with just basic.”
- Ray Lewis
https://www.baltimoreravens.com/author/cole-jackson
Twitter: @ColeJacksonFB
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06-25-2019, 11:37 AM #39Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Sheesh. That's a light little task you've set for yourself.
By the way, looks like I fucked up my list. I was way too aggressive culling guys. Mark Sanchez didn't make my cut; Shaun King didn't make my cut. Two guys who took teams to conf champship games; and as rookies too! So, that's bad. If you dive into something like that, you'll want to start fresh.
Here's a query similar to what I used:
171 guys in their first seven starts or less, in their first two seasons, from 1999 on. "Starts" is only searchable from 1999, so Peyton Manning is not in here (his rookie season was '98). If you sort by games-played, you can get rid of 50 or 60 of these guys; players who only started a couple games. Have to do it on each page of the result set; the sort only works on that page's results.
PFR is wonderful; but even PFR has limits. John Beck shows up in this list. He started 7 games in his "first two seasons". But his first two seasons were 2007 and 2011! He didn't appear in any games in '08-9-10, so those seasons don't exist.
I think it's a pretty high bar, a rare thing, (1) for rookies to be given total control of a fully-featured offense, and (2) for them to perform. To handle it.
It might be fair to say that David Carr was given full control (that, or thrown to the wolves). But I don't think we'd judge that he handled it. You want the player to survive and thrive. Carr barely survived, and certainly didn't thrive. On the other hand, there's no question that Peyton Manning did all of that, and more. I think ultimately you'll find that it's a fairly small set of guys who both got it, and handled it. What I said in the prior post, about how most of them are #1/1, or otherwise rare.
A guy like Deshaun Watson is an interesting case. He got excluded from my first look at it; the injury spread his first seven starts across two seasons, which is not his or the coaching staff's doing. But he's certainly running a fully-featured offense. I think he was right off the bat! And he's handling the shit out of it; he seems awesome. Like MVP-caliber awesome. But it's confusing how O'Brien jerked him around, his rookie season. How the hell was he not the starter out of camp? Did O'Brien have him in "training wheels" for his first few starts? Simplified offense, options, whatever?
And how does DeAndre Hopkins change how "hard" it is to QB a team? Did Andy Dalton succeed because he was good (I think he was pretty good as a rookie), or because AJ Green made things easier? It's always hard to separate out the QB from the team context; maybe even harder with rookies.
Big Ben certainly thrived. No doubt about it. But did he step right into a "full" offense his rookie season? Cowher was the HC; Ken Whisenhunt the OC. Arians was there, but as WR coach. Jerome Bettis & Duce Staley combined for almost 1800 yards rushing; also Wee Willie Parker was on that team. Hines Ward barely broke a thousand; Plaxico and Randle-El were under 700. TEs do not seem to have been a factor in the passing game. They led the league in fewest points-allowed. Ben threw less passes-per-start than Lamar did! (21.1 to 22.6)
I haven't watched any film; my guess is that Ben drove a limited offense, while Cowher's Steelers won with defense and rushing, like they always did. Ben's a classic pocket guy, so it probably looked more "conventional" than Lamar does; but I don't think they threw anywhere near us much on Ben's shoulders, as (say) Indy threw on Peyton's shoulders.
My strong suspicion is that the vast majority of rookie QBs are ramped-up, or brought along in stages, or managed, or given a little at a time, or however we want to say it. Damn few of them get the whole thing dumped on them at once, like Matt Ryan or Jameis Winston. And even fewer of those actually handle it well.
I really don't, though. I try to call it like I see it. As it happens, the Ravens tend to be a pretty good team and a very well-run organization. So most of what I see is pretty positive.
Not always.
I thought passing over Juju for yet another front-7 body in the '17 draft was a terrible move. In '18 I wanted DJ Moore very badly; I think he has a shot at the Hall of Fame, and to put it charitably, that's not very likely for Hayden Hurst. We're probably the two-time defending division champs right now, if we'd picked up Juju in '17. And we wouldn't have needed to double-dip at WR this year if we'd taken Juju & DJ in back-to-back drafts.
I was pretty goddam mad after this last playoff game; I considered it an enormous failure of game-planning and organizational complacency. They thought they were just a bad matchup for the Chargers, and would win just by showing up. It's gotta be the single worst coaching performance of John Harbaugh's career. Sometimes the Ravens lay an egg, like against Jax in London or @ Carolina this past season; but that's part of life in the NFL. Every team goes thru it. The Patriots lost at the Lions this past season, and got blown out in Tennessee heading into the bye. In previous years they've taken it on the chin vs KC or got blanked in Buffalo – remember when Tom Brady was "washed-up" in 2014? – so it happens to everyone. The important thing is recovering, and Harbs has shown an ability to get the guys to bounce back from a loss. His teams have always been resilient. But that playoff game was different. That was a failure to take the opponent seriously and have a plan. COLOSSAL fuckup. Unacceptable.
So: not always positive. I try to call it like I see it. But most of the Ravens moves are reasonable / logical / sensible, reflect some intelligence or a plan. It's a good organization. Most of what I see is pretty positive. Many fans on this forum have a hard time accepting that; or I guess disagree. Acknowledging positive signs seems to be regarded as propaganda or something. It's weird. But I guess that's the internet for you.
And I am enormously impressed with Jackson. Honestly, I don't fully grasp how anyone isn't. He looks like Deshaun 2.0 to me. Maybe what Deshaun might look like if he were stuck with Marty M instead of O'Brien, and no Deandre Hopkins.
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06-25-2019, 11:39 AM #40Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
He did improve, and I believe I noted that before I started breaking things down. What I'm saying is that I haven't seen enough on an NFL field to indicate that he has anything better than fringe average/adequate arm strength for the system he was running, and the only raw number I had, which as edromeo is suggesting is questionable, suggests that he has poor velocity on his throws. With that in mind, I believe he's going to have a little less room for error as he continues to grow as a passer to all areas of the field.
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06-25-2019, 11:42 AM #41Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Holy shit! This thread blew up while I was eking out that meandering post! I've got a lot of catching up to do.
Continuity Steve, nothing in my post just above reflects any of the stuff you posted after 10am. I haven't dug into any of your "scouting report" stuff on Lamar etc. I was just replying to much earlier stuff.
Got some reading to do!
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06-25-2019, 11:51 AM #42Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Fair enough. I try to do the same. The Ravens do a lot of things very well. Sometimes I wish they'd do a lot of things very well differently.
I'm by no means a professional scout, but I figured I'd try to be as fair as possible with where I see Lamar right now. Watson is on my short list of maybe 2 or 3 players that I would pick to build around if I could start a franchise with any QB. A very high floor and ceiling. I value someone who can make throws well in a game over pure arm strength. I'd take him over Mahomes, honestly.
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06-25-2019, 12:13 PM #43Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Just want to respond to your edit. A lot of these guys are elite level throwers of the football. Not all of them are elite level passers and quarterbacks. It doesn't surprise me that no name guys can dial it up and throw hard. They're at the combine for a reason, and are probably among the top 100-200 people in the world at throwing a football outright. Doesn't mean they can be good passers and make throws that are asked of them at the NFL level. I haven't seen anything of Haskins that wowed me as far as arm strength goes. Mahomes is dynamic and throws the ball well, and his 55mph meets that threshold where we consistently see starters. Doesn't mean Will Grier can't let one rip and throw it harder. But Will Grier also likely can't do what Mahomes can do on the field at the NFL level.
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06-25-2019, 12:43 PM #44Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
If you're restricting it to the NFL, I think that's fair. Lamar hasn't exhibited a lot of "zip"; even his deep balls have been rainbows rather than ropes.
I think Lamar has a nice live arm. Maybe not Favre / Randall Cunningham / Mahomes -esque; but plenty good. His college tape suggests as much. Plenty of tape where the ball just leaps from his hand, and effortlessly darts into the receiver's hands ~50 yards downfield. But he didn't show it with the Ravens this past season.
I'm not concerned about it yet. Plenty of evidence that Lamar's mechanics / fundamentals were not 100% in order, esp reflected in the short throws; and he showed plenty of ability to vary his delivery with the situation. Reporters have said that he's shown a little more zip in camp. It's not hard for me to believe that Lamar was focused on other things last season (like play calling, reading defenses, avoiding the pass rush), and didn't showcase his best "delivery".
But it is a – maybe not quite "concern" for me, but an "unchecked box" on his NFL resume. I would like to see some ropes and darts from him. I don't need to see them to still think he has a bright NFL future: he's already shown he's not Chad Pennington, and his vision & feel & processing speed are solidly NFL caliber. But seeing some "arm" throws would verify that his ceiling is as high as I think it is. If he really doesn't have them, than his ceiling is probably lower than I've had it.
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06-25-2019, 01:06 PM #45Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
It's not as if Mahomes can't make throws well in a game.
I love Deshaun as a prospect. But the litany of injuries he's been thru scares me to death. Makes me leery of putting him ahead of Mahomes. Also there's a shadow of a DeAndre Hopkins question around Deshaun. Deshaun looks really great; but is the all-word WR shining him up a little? Or are they just complementing each other, the way great players do?
(cf Steve Young & Jerry Rice)I think they're both great. But I'm not positive yet.
That said: I have a reservation only about whether Deshaun is the best young QB in the league. I'm damn sure he's one of the top ~3 or so young QBs in the league. I got Mahomes, Deshuan & Baker (in some order) as the hottest young QBs. I don't fully buy into the young NFC QBs: Goff & Trubisky have question marks, to me, and Wenz hasn't gotten thru a season healthy yet.
The AFC is the place to be. And Lamar comin'.Last edited by JimZipCode; 06-25-2019 at 01:21 PM.
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06-25-2019, 03:40 PM #46
Re: Lamar statistical comps
troy sMiff LMAO
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06-25-2019, 04:15 PM #47Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
I'm just going to respond to bits & pieces of these long, well-thought-out and carefully researched posts.
Same. Except not PO'ed: more suprised. I didn't think his reported skills matched what we expected from our QBs.
Once I dug into Lamar post-draft, I was pretty impressed and excited. The pick made a lot more sense. Indeed, it seemed borderline visionary.
I think my perception mostly parallels this. In preseason, Lamar didn't seem to run with anywhere near the power & explosiveness of Vick. And he threw with much better touch and anticipation: but not with the same "gun". The Vick comparison still rankles me. Lamar seems like a completely different runner to me: elite elusiveness & wiggle, much less long-speed and power. And a completely different passer: much better progressions and touch, much less of a gun.
The Lamar Package didn't do much for his development as a passer. (Ex told us it wouldn't ) It did get him on the field, and get him adjusted to the speed of NFL defenders. That's valuable all by itself. He was readier in week 10 than he would've been without the package; but not as ready as he would've been if he'd been getting a "regular" drive here and there.
Agree here.
QBing seems to largely be about athletic thresholds. You need to have enough size and enough mobility and enough arm strengh, etc. Once you meet the minimums, then everything else comes into play (all the stuff that Brady is so exceptional at). But falling short of the thresholds spells trouble for being able to succeed in the league.
So I see that Ed has hammered you on the Ourlads radar gun data.
From his college tape, I don't believe that Lamar is at all questionable around the "strength thresholds". At minimum, I have a hard time buying that Lamar has any less functional-arm-strength than Tom Brady did coming into the league.
What I do believe is that Lamar has always been the most athletic kid on the field, until he got to the NFL. (Barring a few games in college against Clemson and similar.) He's always been able to just "do" what he needed to do, and turn it on when necessary. So for example, if he's on a designed run wide, he could "coast" on the rollout and wait to turn on the jets when the hole opens. But in the NFL, he's not a whole 'nother class of athlete. If he's not running on the rollout part, a defensive end will catch him and take him down. He mentioned after his first preseason game that he was surprised when that happened.
One college scout wrote that Lamar seemed to make bad throws on ones that he perceived to be "easy". On obviously hard throws, deep bombs and what have you, those balls were on the money. When Lamar thought that a throw was going to be "easy", that's when his mechanical flaws surfaced. Like he "nonchalanted" the easy throws. And he was inconsistent with throws outside the numbers.
When Lamar talked at OTAs about stuff he's been working on with Josh Harris, one of the things he said was "Just not being lazy" on his throws. That seems to dovetail right in with the college assessment, and what we saw on swing passes and the like. Don't ASSUME a throw is going to be easy: don't be lazy: do all the damn steps. Place your feet, engage your hips, step, and finish the throw. Every time.
I think Lamar is a gifted kid to whom stuff came easy, including placing a ball pretty much wherever he wants to, so he didn't develop rock-solid consistency with his mechanics. Never needed to before. And we could see the positive aspects to this, on some plays from last season: bombs to John Brown down the right sideline (one of them called back for holding), the TD to Mandrews in San Diego, the TDs to Crabby in the 4th Q in the playoffs, all show Lamar to be a natural thrower. That backhanded flip to Thor on the rollout left: that's a natural thrower in action.
But the negative aspect bit Lamar in the ass several times, too. Swing passes in the dirt, over- or under-throws to the sideline, etc. These show a player with inconsistent mechanics/fundamentals. He never had to perfect that shit before; he never did.
So – I don't think your heat maps add anyting to that account. They show Lamar "within averages" or "above average" to all parts of the field EXCEPT the short-intermediate left sideline, and the deep middle.
- I think the issues to the left were real: we all remember Lamar grounding a swing pass to a RB in the left flat, and there were some other fails to the sideline rolling left (I seem to remember a very bad throw toward Snead after a scramble).
- But I have sample-size questions about the deep middle. If John Bown chooses not to alligator-arm one or two bombs in the end zone, that number is wildly different.
So anyway. I want to make a distinction about arm talent, and consistent mechanics. I'm pretty sure Lamar has plenty of arm talent. I think your assessments of "functional strength" are highlighting inconsistent mechanics. Those sometimes interfered with his arm talent shining thru.
I anticipate you objecting, "Well if he isn't able to harness that talent, then 'functionally' it's as if he doesn't have it." I get that point: but it's not a matter of not being able to use it at all. It's consistency. Lamar's bombs down the right sideline are not any shorter throws than to the left sideline. And they're perfectly placed. If he's not doing the same thing to the left sideline, that's steps and mechanics and consistency. Not "strength" or arm talent.
And Lamar specifically said that he & Josh Harris were working on driving the ball to the sideline, in the same presser where he talked about "not being lazy".
I think it's a mistake to draw negative conclusions about Lamar's arm strength, "functional" or raw. His college tape showed effortless flicks of well-placed deep balls. The Ourlads radar-gun data has quality issues. And Lamar's NFL tape showed mechanical lapses, which all by themselves would account for the heat map you copied in. Let's see what Lamar brings this year.
By the way: what is UP with that number for passes behind the LOS in the middle of the field?? What even is a pass like that? When did Lamar throw any? To me, that (good) number might be even more questionable than the (bad) deep middle number.
Doesn't seem fair to use that word "struggled", when the actual chart puts his performance there as within the averages. I guess you're comparing it to his success with the other passes to the right?
I'll quibble with the first part of this. Probably *all* QBs are "strongest" dumping the ball off, yeah? But I think Lamar showed that as the weakest part of his game. Due to mechanical inconsistencies.
But yeah, Lamar is definitely better dumping off to his right when scrambling, than when to his left. And interm-middle & deep-right seem to be his sweet spots.
Lamar's willingness to challenge defenses, and his consistency in reading deep-to-short, to me is one of the most exciting parts of his game. Saw him a couple times ignore a short dump-off to complete an intermediate strike: those decisions are great for the offense. And incidentally, the opposite from decisions Joe has tended to make over the last few years.
I expect I'll enjoy reading this next section.
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06-25-2019, 04:18 PM #48Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Wasn't just Lamar:
I know you already lumped that in with dumb kid things that aren't major red flags. But the Ravens didn't have a problem plastering it on their site: seems it might be even less than you said. (I had never heard of this guy before looking him up right now.)
Yes.
And honestly it's a mystery why teams still use it AT ALL. It seems to provide zero useful information. Dan Marino and Ray Lewis scored low on it! Hello? What value does a test provide, that assigns low scores to Dan Marino and Ray Lewis???
Ditch it!
I got him as an A across the board here, with just one real judgement lapse (the 110mph video).
Close enough. We largely agree here. I'm particularly excited by how other players respond to him. They seem to LOVE him. That's a great signal.
I mostly agree on this; except that I think Lamar's elite change-of-direction could give him great acceleration to start the 40. Which means that I think he would run the 40 in not worse than the 4.4x range.
But Lamar is not touching Vick's reported one-time 4.25; and I doubt he could come close to Vick's pro day 4.33. Vick was explosive, in a way that Lamar is not.
But Lamar is quick as hell, and slippery. He can get thru trash at the line of scrimmage in a blink. That might be more valuable, on a play to play basis, than raw long-speed. But not as many big plays.
Yes. Football Outsiders showed the same thing: their efficiency stat (DVOA) had Lamar one of the least efficient QBs as a runner.
But: Gus and Kenneth Dixon had significantly greater efficiency as runners, with Lamar on the field.
I think your phrasing here is exactly right: diminishing returns. Some running by Lamar, opens things up for other runners. The threat of Lamar running, opens things up. But there are dominishing returns. We can't let ourselves become one diminsional.
Yes. And I think that adds up over the course of multiple downs and series. Plays here & there were another QB would have to throw it away, Lamar can either stay alive to improvise a big play, or pick up a quick 4 yds with a run out of bounds. Take a certain number of incompletes each game and turn them into +4 yards: that's less punts, more trips into the Red Zone, etc etc. Higher productivity on offense.
Absolutely. Everything else become moot if this isn't cleaned up. You just can't put him out there at QB, if he's going to put the ball on the ground twice a game.
Objections previously registered on this point.
Agreed.
Yes. I think Lamar's work ethic and the degree to which his head's on straight, are very positive signs for continued improvement. Not just this offseason, but in the years to come.
Agree completely on the assessment of Allen. Too many red flags, not enough indicators of ball placement.
Yeah: I think what you do is, you trade "polish" for "upside", if you're looking for a way off the mediocrity carousel. The Ravens are traditionally drafting in the back half of round 1. The can't-miss passers are off the board then. Late in round one, you're looking at either "pro ready but low ceiling", or "raw but high upside".
- In '08 the Ravens went raw-with-upside in the back half of the first, and got three conf champship appearances and a SB win out of it.
- In '11 the Bengals went with ready-low-ceiling (Dalton). They got 5 straight winning seasons out of it (coming off 4-12), along with 5 playoff appearances and two division titles.
I prefer the Ravens payoff; but both moves had real merit.
But the point is, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield are not available to the Ravens, where they traditionally draft. We needed to replace Joe, who was getting old. If the goal is to compete for championships, that seems to put the ready-but-low-ceiling player off the table. So now, you either suck for Luck / tank for Tua, or proactively identify a raw-with-upside passer.
I think you've made a mistake on Lamar's arm talent. An honest mistake: believing Ourlads data causing you to misdiagnose the heat map. I think that mistake is causing you to mis-estimate Lamar's upside, so you mistook what bucket Lamar is in. I think Lamar is very much in the "raw with upside" bucket.
You've already noted the elite pocket presence, the increased decisiveness as the sesaon progressed, and the willingness to challenge defenses. You didn't mention the vision, but that's there too. (Roman has mentioned it.) If you're right about arm strength, then that puts a cap on Lamar's ceiling, same as there was a cap on Chad Pennington's ceiling: maybe a smidge higher, but same basic effect. That's possible. I say Lamar's athelticism, as expressed in his running ability, also shows up in his throwing ability. He has a natural ability to flat-out sling it, to just about anywhere on the field. The question is mechanics and consistency, and their effect on accuracy. Exactly the stufff Lamar & Josh Harris say they've been working on.
So, y'know, we'll see how it goes. We should know a lot more in a month. (When do the preseason games start?!??)
Great discussion!
Best,
Jim
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