Lamar statistical comps

[Continuity Steve]

Great post, despite an opener that seems intended to be snarky & sarcastic.

Just giving you a hard time. You always do your best to present Harbaugh, the Ravens FO, and Jackson in a positive light. It is admirable, even if I can’t say I always agree. I meant no harm.

You’ve given me a lot to think about. I guess the next step is to go back and watch as much film as possible to make determinations about all of these quarterbacks, the degree of complexity of their offenses, and how they performed at varying degrees of complexity. This level of analysis is definitely a full time job. I’ll take a few looks and come back once I can say I’ve seen enough to justify an appropriate response. I have my suspicions on what I believe I’ll see, but it doesn’t do anyone any good to go off of that.

[edromeo]

Good thread JZ.

I think this thread goes a long way to throw water on a lot of the media narratives that paint a negative image of Lamâr as a passer.

Nothing in his rookie stats suggest the limited passer that much of the media push and some fans accept.

The questions that surround Lamar are no different then those surrounding other young QBs and only time will answer those questions.

[Continuity Steve]

So before digging into this, I thought it best to give an accurate baseline where Lamar is as a quarterback. Before we talk about how he can improve, we have to be honest about where he is so we can talk about where we want him to be and how he can get there. To start that off, we need to develop a bit of a scouting report. Here is my take on where he stands.

I'll admit, I was a little lazy about Lamar leading up to the draft. I took the Vick comp and ran with it, looking mostly at his mechanics and release in small samples. His release passed the eye test, as he wasn't giving the slow Byron Leftwich wind up and seemed to get rid of the ball quickly once he decided to throw. His mechanics left more to be desired, and he was used way too much as a designed runner. I didn't dig deeper, let the Vick comp hold, and was pretty PO'ed when we drafted him. But I thought about it for a bit. Vick had a very strong arm, a lot of velocity on his throws, and had a lot of touch/accuracy lapses. It made me think of young Flacco, who made a pretty good living off of game managing and the deep ball, while having some accuracy lapses. I justified that, for what amounted to the loss of a 2nd round pick, if we could get a young Flacco out of it with Vick's speed, then we actually would come out ahead. We showed we could win with young Flacco, and the speed added another dimension.

So to my surprise, what I saw in the preseason wasn't even close to a young Flacco or Vick. Lamar showed he lacked both the arm strength and speed of Vick, and the wounded ducks, accuracy lapses, and "Lamar package" didn't do much to instill confidence as a passer, and we saw him get caught/run down by practice squad linebackers. BUT...the Lamar that showed up when called to start looked much better than the training camp/preseason version. He seemed to adjust to the speed of NFL defenders and more decisively used his own speed to his advantage. The accuracy lapses still happened, but he showed he could make a limited array of throws that were asked of him fairly consistently. His arm strength is what it is, which is where I want to take this next section.

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Arm strength, in quarterbacks, is the one trait that makes everything else easier. If you don't have it, to an extent, it just means you have to be that much better at everything else. If you do have it, you can get away with a lot more. I honestly tend to bias against strong arm quarterbacks in favor of lower ceiling, higher floor "game manager plus" types in the draft process unless they show they can use it in a complete offense instead of using it to mask flaw. I'd like to say there are two versions of arm strength...raw strength and functional game throwing. Raw strength measured in velocity of throwing the ball, functional throwing as whether or not that translates or, if raw strength is lacking, does it play up in a game situation. Here is a pretty good list of pure throwing velocities:

https://www.ourlads.com/story/defaul...2017/10243/dh/

What this shows us is that Lamar's raw arm strength (49mph) is actually at the bottom tier of what tends to show up at an NFL combine. Josh Allen is truly in a class of his own (62 mph) as the greatest pure arm strength of the last decade. The most successful player at Lamar's velocity is Tyrod Taylor (50 mph), who showed he can be an adequate starter in a specialized offense. Mitch Trubisky (51mph) has shown ups and downs in 2 years, and it took rebuilding an offense around what he can do to really see him start to shine. The only quarterback lower than Lamar in terms of raw arm strength that has shown success is Deshaun Watson (45 mph), whose velocity puts him in Colt Brennan territory. Deshaun is a case of a player who does everything else well. When we look at the chart, we see, again, a lot of really good and really bad quarterbacks spread across the range of velocities up to a point. Once we get below the 55 mph range, we have Taylor, Trubisky, and Watson as the only quarterbacks who showed success. The rest are career back ups or out of the league. Again, this is pure anecdotal, but it suggests that there is a minimum threshold on raw arm strength required at the NFL level, otherwise, we start to need specialized offenses or a case of does everything else well to be successful. With Lamar, we see evidence of successes and needs in a limited time in a highly specialized offense, which brings us into his functional arm strength.

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So we have a small sample of a highly specialized offense to go off of for Lamar's performance. Overall, in his starts using your data, it looks like this: 92 Completions, 158 Attempts, 58.2%, 1114 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT, 82.6 Rating. From Pro Football Reference, which unfortunately includes his Lamar package plays, his Total QBR was 48.7 (50 indicates average), 7.1 Y/A, 16 sacks (8.6% sack %), 147 rushes, 695 rush yards, 4.7 yards/attempt, 12 fumbles. I thought about excluding the rushing since the topic is functional strength, but with Lamar's skill set, it is going to go hand in hand. A quick look at his Total QBR broken down shows that he ranked 31 of 33 eligible passers, 30 of 33 in expected points added on passing plays, 5 of 33 on points added as a rusher, 29 of 33 on points added on penalties (seems to benefit more pass attempts and shots down field that draw PI penalties). These are weighted counting stats that, obviously, favor high production over a greater period of time. What all of these numbers in total do is confirm that we ran a highly specialized offense that didn't ask much of him as a passer, and relied on him past the point of diminished returns as a rusher. I'm not a fan of looking at overall stats, so lets see what we can find situational that paints a clearer picture of what he did and didn't do well.



What we see here is that Lamar Jackson, over 2018, clearly struggled throwing to the left side of the field, although, to be fair, his arguably most memorable long TD pass to Andrews was a deeper throw to the mid/left. My eyes told me all season that he favored the right side of the filed when throwing and scrambling, struggled to the left, and showed his most promise throwing to the intermediate middle. This chart seems to confirm that, although it's interesting to see that he struggled to the immediate right when compared to short right and deep right. Overall, this shows me that he's strongest dumping the pass off, dumping off to the short right when scrambling, and targeting the intermediate middle and deep right as a passer. Let's see what we can find on throws he chooses to make. Looks like there are only charts for weeks 11, and 13-16 as a starter. I'll list them in that order.











What I'm seeing here is that he started off using intermediate middle and right pretty exclusively, using the left side a little bit more as the season went on (week 15 especially), before regressing a little in that area in week 16, save for the deep TD pass to the left, which brings his season rating in that area to slightly above league average. So the dispersion charts kind of confirm what we know. He ran a specialized offense that asked him to make a limited array of throws, with the caveat that he started to expand a little bit toward the end, and while not using the left side nearly as much, he still showed the ability to look there and hit an open man deep by the end of the year.

So, functionally, his arm strength is going to show that he'll struggle to throw outside of his comfort zone, and honestly, we will probably see a lot of throws where a little more zip would be helpful on throws deep or to a non-preferred area. The dreaded wobble is an area where this will also show up, as it could lead to a functionally poor result and non maximizing his limited raw arm strength in a game setting. BUT...there is actually a lot to be encouraged about here. He showed at least a willingness to take some chances, made some big plays outside of his preferred area, and honestly, showed he can be successful limiting his throws in a simplified offense. Functionally speaking, we may have someone closer to Tyrod Taylor right now, in that he can start and win in the right system, instead of the career backups that share similar arm strengths. I touched up on it by mentioning his willingness to take chances, so lets next focus on character, football IQ, and leadership.

[Continuity Steve]

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Ideally, you'd want your franchise QB to be a fiery, on field general who is relatively stoic off the field, living and breathing football every second. But quarterbacks are people, not robots. There is room to nitpick here. The 110mph video, the association with Kodak Black and his criminal record, publicly advocating that he'd want us to take on Tyreek Hill while Hill is in the middle of a domestic violence case, summer saluting into the end zone on a run, some of the wtf did he just say statements, the 13 wonderlic score. So lets talk about them...

Some of these things do show that he can occasionally lapse in best judgement. But a lot of these are also just dumb kid things. We aren't hearing that he's frequently involved in alcohol related incidents in bars, and there isn't a peep of criminal or violent behavior in his background. Honestly, as he gets older and wiser, I'd expect these judgment lapses to go away. If they don't or if they grow, then we might have evidence of an issue. But as it stands, they aren't major red flags.

The 13 wonderlic score shows that he didn't do well on some bastardized version of a timed IQ test. Without knowing what was tested, whether or not it was a norms referenced test, or really what exactly it measured other than general knowledge, it doesn't really tell us much of anything. The only thing we can possibly take from here is reading comprehension, and from that, can he read an NFL playbook and disseminate the information to his teammates. In other words, the wonderlic is a complete non-issue, and we see on the field that he can obviously recall the plays as dictated.

To tie into the functional throwing ability argument earlier, what we saw was that he did take more chances to non-preferred areas. We did see that his teammates responded to him and he gave a bit of a spark when he did start. We did see that he spent an offseason trying to improve his throwing mechanics and working to build chemistry throwing to his wide receivers. In other words, his players respond to him, he takes initiative, and he genuinely wants to improve. In his interviews, he comes off as someone who is having fun, is honest and candid, and genuinely wants to lead the team. I don't think Lamar's leadership or football IQ is going to hinder his development. If he does fail, it will be for ability reasons, not for intangible reasons. His character and leadership gets a solid A for me, his judgement lapses get a C, and overall he is a B+ with room to grow into an A as he becomes older and wiser.

At this point, we've covered throwing and intangibles, so lets look at what he brings as a runner.

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Lamar Jackson is not Michael Vick. I think he was smart to not run at the combine, because his 40 yard time probably would have shown he wasn't Vick as a runner and his draft stock likely would have fallen. I remember, in preseason, RG3 stated in an interview that he believes he could beat Lamar in a straight line, but Lamar is much more elusive. I think that is something we have seen play on film. In the preseason, when he was less instinctively elusive, he was getting run down by linebackers. As the season went on, he became more comfortable and his elusiveness showed to be more deadly than his in line speed. Not to say he's slow by any stretch, but here is what it does give us...

Lamar has elite pocket presence. You can almost guarantee that the first pass rusher is going to miss, and he always looks for a throw before taking off. That natural elusiveness is going to give him more opportunities to make plays than a slower QB would have. He still favors his preferred area and the designed runs, as shown above in the rushing stats, honestly pushed him pass the point of diminished returns and made him less efficient of a runner. Keeping him limited to his preferred area and using his speed has shown it can be a winning formula. It has also shown it can be shut down. If he doesn't grow, he can be passable in a limited system, but the frustrations will mount and we'll likely have more up and down games. It will also lead to more chances for injury. The point is, we have a real weapon here as far as speed/elusiveness/pocket presence goes.

The elephant in the room is his fumbling. That has to improve, no questions asked. The 12 fumbles, if we called them sacks, would make his elusiveness in the pocket seem a lot less impressive. The point is, they take away from a very valuable skill, and they have to improve.

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So lets talk about overall. We have someone with below average raw arm strength that, right now, translates to below average functional throwing overall, very good in his preferred area, and relatively poor to half of the field. Within his preferred window and with his speed, he has proven he can win. He's also proven that he's willing to take chances and put in the time it takes to grow. I don't think we have a true bust here. I think we have someone who, minimum, can be a passable Tyrod Taylor type who can win in the right system and will be overexposed when asked to do too much. There is enough to at least give him a chance to prove he can grow in a more complete offense. If we can limit his running to the point where we reach, not exceed diminished returns, and if he grows to be average on non-preferred throws, then he can probably be an average quarterback in a more complex, but still run first offense, accounting for the fact that defenses will scheme to take away his strongest throwing lanes. He has to improve a lot and his arm strength isn't going to give him a ton of room for error. I don't see a hall of fame quarterback. Most likely, I see a system guy who can win with the combination of average to slightly below average passing overall and efficient running in a run first scheme. He won't ever show lack of effort, which means that there is reason to be optimistic that he will grow, meet the expectations he'll need to be successful, and then continue to grow into an even stronger passer. Just like some people will look at Josh Allen and be hopeful that he can grow at doing the nuts and bolts of the job, because with his arm strength, if he can just be average at everything else, he'll be a star (full disclosure, I don't think Allen will grow to be average at everything else). The question is, how much will he grow? He's far from a sure thing, but he's far from an absolute bust. Bottom line, nobody can predict the future. We just have to wait and see. If I'm being honest, I'd prefer if we went in a different direction initially with a stronger overall passer, but I'm not making the decisions. Everyone just needs to take a step back and enjoy the ride.

[edromeo]

GP-
quick 2 cents on 1 area:

The Ourlads velocity measures should not be accepted as a true measure of a QB throwing at max velocity for several reasons.

The main reason being is that the velocity is measured by hand during drills at the combine when all the QBs aren’t throwing their hardest.

An easy example was DeShaun Watson. By all accounts Watson three the ball well at the combine. But he wasn’t out there throwing heaters he was throwing nice catchable passes that Bill Walsh would have appreciated. But consequently his “velocity” was clocked at 45mph. And for whatever reason that number was accepted and repeated by a lot of the draft media.
Meanwhile Sports Science, which using physics to calculate mph from actual in game throws, calculated Watson at 54mph.

[Continuity Steve]

GP-
quick 2 cents on 1 area:

The Ourlads velocity measures should not be accepted as a true measure of a QB throwing at max velocity for several reasons.

The main reason being is that the velocity is measured by hand during drills at the combine when all the QBs aren’t throwing their hardest.

An easy example was DeShaun Watson. By all accounts Watson three the ball well at the combine. But he wasn’t out there throwing heaters he was throwing nice catchable passes that Bill Walsh would have appreciated. But consequently his “velocity” was clocked at 45mph. And for whatever reason that number was accepted and repeated by a lot of the draft media.
Meanwhile Sports Science, which using physics to calculate mph from actual in game throws, calculated Watson at 54mph.

Fair enough, but again, without being a professional scout or without access to premium data, that's really the best I have. If anything, that's another mark to support sustained success of Watson's impressive body of work so far. As I said, I bias in favor of quarterbacks who throw well to all parts of the field. He clearly does, and his functional throwing ability has proven that.

[edromeo]

-Continuity Steve

Did you watch much of Lamar at Louisville? I only ask because I find it hard to believe that anyone that watched Lamar at Louisville would have question his arm strength/velocity.

Lamar throws as hard as he needs to throw; he’s not the type of QB that gonna ‘Favre’ a throw just because.

So I disagree with you about Lamar’s arm strength.

[edromeo]

Fair enough, but again, without being a professional scout or without access to premium data, that's really the best I have. If anything, that's another mark to support sustained success of Watson's impressive body of work so far. As I said, I bias in favor of quarterbacks who throw well to all parts of the field. He clearly does, and his functional throwing ability has proven that.

Lack of access to reliable measurements doesn’t make unreliable measurements relevant. If we know Ourlads velocity measurements are unreliable the fact that it’s the only measurement you know doesn’t change it’s unreliability.

[Continuity Steve]

Admittedly, no, I didn't. In my post, I stated that I looked more at his mechanics, wrote him off as a Vick clone per the narrative, and assumed he'd never make it. I was honestly quite surprised when we drafted him, considering we were running a check down offense at the time. College football requires less arm strength to make throws due to the slower game speed and lesser overall talent on defense. From what I've seen at the NFL level, I don't think Lamar has high end arm strength, but he has proven he can make the throws he needs to in his comfort zone. I've never seen anything to suggest that he isn't any more than fringe average, with below average zip on his throws. I don't think that's an unfair assessment.

[Continuity Steve]

Lack of access to reliable measurements doesn’t make unreliable measurements relevant. If we know Ourlads velocity measurements are unreliable the fact that it’s the only measurement you know doesn’t change it’s unreliability.

You made the case with one player. It could also be safe to assume that most players at the combine are giving it all they have in order to impress scouts. Especially those who aren't looked at as high end talents. It's the best we have, and until we see everyone in a NFL game situation, it's what we have to go off of. I didn't remember watching the combine and coming away impressed with Lamar as a thrower.

[edromeo]

No disrespect intended. But for me your assessment is completely ‘unfair’. It seems you are forming your opinions based on preconceived notions; you’ve basically admitted as much.

How can you possibly have an accurate opinion on a prospect that you didn’t even watch in college?

[edromeo]

You made the case with one player. It could also be safe to assume that most players at the combine are giving it all they have in order to impress scouts. Especially those who aren't looked at as high end talents. It's the best we have, and until we see everyone in a NFL game situation, it's what we have to go off of. I didn't remember watching the combine and coming away impressed with Lamar as a thrower.

Ive already done the research; for me it’s not an opinion. You can do your own research on it and report back what you find out in terms of the reliability of Ourlads velocity numbers. How it’s recorded, the accuracy of the radar gun itself, which throws are “tested” etc. Look it up for yourself.

According to Ourlads-
Drew Lock and McSorely have equal arm strength and both have stronger arms then Dwayne Haskins
Will Grier has a stronger then Pat Mahomes
etc...etc...etc