Lamar statistical comps

[Continuity Steve]

My 22yo stepdaughter uses "triggered" that way.

Lately she's added a new wrinkle: telling a story with particularly annoying details, she'll say "Trigger me timbers!"

Never would have thought fringe adequate arm strength could trigger such responses.

Really agree with your sentiment that we need the offseason to end. Lamar has shown a lot of positive character and good judgement lately, so as one of my final offseason acts, I’ll amend that character/judgment from A and C to A and B. Honestly, he hit a grand slam with that first pitch and tribute to Cal Ripken that probably won a lot of fans over.

[JimZipCode]

Never would have thought fringe adequate arm strength could trigger such responses.

I'm surprised that you're surprised. "Fringe adequate" sounds really damning. Like he'd be nip & tuck with Chad Pennington in a contest to see who throws harder -- and he might lose. Like he can barely lift his arm over his head. Like he's on the cusp of not adequate.

It would sound MUCH different if you said "he has an NFL arm." Which you seem to think is true (right?); but is not the words you use.

... as one of my final offseason acts, I’ll amend that character/judgment from A and C to A and B.

Yay! We should have a ceremony, with bunting, and signing a document using several pens which will have souvenir value.

Honestly, he hit a grand slam with that first pitch and tribute to Cal Ripken that probably won a lot of fans over.

He seems to have good "people" instincts. Would be interesting to know whether he was coached to say something deferential about Cal, or just moved to on his own volition. (He's awful young to have a really solid sense of who Cal was.) But I dont want to ruin anything.

[Continuity Steve]

I'm surprised that you're surprised. "Fringe adequate" sounds really damning. Like he'd be nip & tuck with Chad Pennington in a contest to see who throws harder -- and he might lose. Like he can barely lift his arm over his head. Like he's on the cusp of not adequate.

It would sound MUCH different if you said "he has an NFL arm." Which you seem to think is true (right?); but is not the words you use.


Yay! We should have a ceremony, with bunting, and signing a document using several pens which will have souvenir value.


He seems to have good "people" instincts. Would be interesting to know whether he was coached to say something deferential about Cal, or just moved to on his own volition. (He's awful young to have a really solid sense of who Cal was.) But I dont want to ruin anything.

Maybe unproven would sound a little bit better. I think his arm is adequate for what he has shown, but I don’t believe he’s going to be someone who can easily make all of the throws. Hence, fringe adequate. Remains to be seen. I’m just not super impressed. He’s shown he can get the job done in a specialized offense, and now he needs to show he can do it to all parts of the field. I just think there’s just as much reason to doubt that as there is to believe it. But I’ve been pretty clear that I’d be happy to revise if or when he shows he can do it.

I think his message to Cal was authentic and genuine. Most people wouldn’t refer to him as “Mr. Cal,” which kind of comes off as something someone young and not from here would say. I caught the back 1/3 of Cal’s career as a boy, and we all idolized him. But it was always Cal, or Mr. Ripken if we got lucky enough to catch him at a signing.

[InigoMontoya]

I'm surprised that you're surprised. "Fringe adequate" sounds really damning. Like he'd be nip & tuck with Chad Pennington in a contest to see who throws harder -- and he might lose. Like he can barely lift his arm over his head. Like he's on the cusp of not adequate.

It would sound MUCH different if you said "he has an NFL arm." Which you seem to think is true (right?); but is not the words you use.


Yay! We should have a ceremony, with bunting, and signing a document using several pens which will have souvenir value.


He seems to have good "people" instincts. Would be interesting to know whether he was coached to say something deferential about Cal, or just moved to on his own volition. (He's awful young to have a really solid sense of who Cal was.) But I dont want to ruin anything.

I'd been fine if someone told Lamar who Cal was, and what Cal means to this city. If at 22, Lamar has the listening skills to know what's important to the Ravens' fanbase, then he's on the road to becoming savvy at PR, and a good human being.

[JimZipCode]

Here's some more on Lamar's arm strength. None of it is definitive: merely suggestive. But I think it's interesting nontheless.

Yesterday I rediscovered Cian Fahey's Pre-Snap Reads. Here's some stuff from his breakdown of Lamar:

He ranked fifth on deep throws [in accuracy] but only threw six deep passes so it’s not a noteworthy sample.

Stats for the rookie QBs:

One of the more common criticisms of Jackson is that he can’t throw deep outside the numbers. It’s not an accurate criticism but it’s a common one. He was an outstanding all-around deep passer in college...

Here's one that Lamar completes 30 yds downfield outside the numbers, in a collapsing pocket. This one doesn't look as much a "rainbow" (or punt) as some of Lamar's deep throws that Steve has – uh, "discounted".

Fahey's description of the play:

Jackson’s right guard is beaten and his center is being pushed into close proximity as the ball is released. Jackson moves his feet so he slides slightly forward into the pocket before unleashing an accurate pass down the right sideline to his wide open tight end. That was one of two very impressive accurate deep sideline throws that Jackson made in this game.

This one is more of a rainbow:

But I think it has to have more loft, because Lamar needs to "drop it into the bucket" so the defender doesn't have a play on the ball. Perfectly placed, 40 yds downfield.

The play didn't actually "happen": that one was called back due to holding on the RT.

Jackson didn’t throw deep often last year but he’s absolutely capable of doing so. ... Jackson was 50 percent accurate on deep throws as a whole last season, but he only threw 14 so the sample doesn’t really mean anything at this point.

One thing that is certain is the Ravens lacked the quality out wide to push the ball downfield consistently. Joe Flacco was literally the worst deep passer in the league when he played with the very same receiving corps. Now a lot of that is Flacco because at this point of his career he may be the worst quarterback in the league, but the lack of margin for error at every level of the field offered by John Brown, an older Crabtree, Chris Moore and Willie Snead was obvious to see.

One of Jackson’s most impressive plays of the season was ruined by Moore’s tiny catch radius against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Fahey is talking about this play that Ed has shown before – gives us a different angle:

Fahey's write-up:

After executing a bootleg play fake, Jackson’s deep route is covered as is his shallow tight end. He has an intermediate option that is open but the defender lingering behind the shallow drag route could make that a very difficult throw, similar to the Cincinnati example from earlier in this article. The sidestep to make the defender miss is obviously outstanding, but it’s the fact he combines that sidestep with setting his feet that really sets him up to deliver the ball. He again shows no desire to force a scramble.

Jackson throws this ball back across the field so it’s about a 55-yard throw in the air. Maybe more.

The ball arrives in front of Moore for him to attack it and win it in front of the defensive back on his back. With a legitimate number one receiver this is an easy touchdown. With an average starting receiver you’d expect it to be a touchdown too. With Moore’s small frame and limited ball skills, the defensive back is able to reach in from behind him and disrupt the catch point. Even with that Moore still has a chance to trap the ball to his chest but lets it slide past him.

On such a small sample as Jackson’s from last season, the three failed receptions (or dropped passes if you prefer) and one throw negated by penalty in this article alone would have had a big impact on his perception.

One more; not a "deep" ball, but one that Lamar has to put a little more heat on than planned:

Fahey's write-up:

On this play against the Los Angeles Chargers from the regular season meeting, Jackson hits Michael Crabtree with an accurate pass past the first down line by the sideline. Crabtree drops the ball. ... He [Lamar] wants to release the ball immediately after stepping up but the defender reaches out to disrupt him. Jackson secures the ball and then recomposes himself before settling to throw from a strong foundation. That disruption broke the timing of the play but it didn’t rattle the quarterback, allowing him to hit his receiver accurately.

So what I want to point out is that, as drawn up, this is not a difficult throw and wouldn't require plus arm strength. However, since the timing was disrupted by the pressure, Lamar had to throw late. The ball had to travel faster, to still get to Crabtree before he got to the sideline. So Lamar had to throw harder than planned. And he does, with no problem.

What I love is how effortlessly Lamar processes the need to put a little more mustard on it. But in terms of the arm-talent discussion, I think this is a throw that is more difficult than it seems. Doesn't require elite arm talent; but does require significantly-above-threshold arm talent. Not "fringe" adequate.

---

As I said, nothing definitive. Just suggestive snippets.

[Continuity Steve]

Here's some more on Lamar's arm strength. None of it is definitive: merely suggestive. But I think it's interesting nontheless.

Yesterday I rediscovered Cian Fahey's Pre-Snap Reads. Here's some stuff from his breakdown of Lamar:



Stats for the rookie QBs:

Here's one that Lamar completes 30 yds downfield outside the numbers, in a collapsing pocket. This one doesn't look as much a "rainbow" (or punt) as some of Lamar's deep throws that Steve has – uh, "discounted".

Fahey's description of the play:


This one is more of a rainbow:

But I think it has to have more loft, because Lamar needs to "drop it into the bucket" so the defender doesn't have a play on the ball. Perfectly placed, 40 yds downfield.

The play didn't actually "happen": that one was called back due to holding on the RT.




Fahey is talking about this play that Ed has shown before – gives us a different angle:

Fahey's write-up:


One more; not a "deep" ball, but one that Lamar has to put a little more heat on than planned:

Fahey's write-up:


So what I want to point out is that, as drawn up, this is not a difficult throw and wouldn't require plus arm strength. However, since the timing was disrupted by the pressure, Lamar had to throw late. The ball had to travel faster, to still get to Crabtree before he got to the sideline. So Lamar had to throw harder than planned. And he does, with no problem.

What I love is how effortlessly Lamar processes the need to put a little more mustard on it. But in terms of the arm-talent discussion, I think this is a throw that is more difficult than it seems. Doesn't require elite arm talent; but does require significantly-above-threshold arm talent. Not "fringe" adequate.

---

As I said, nothing definitive. Just suggestive snippets.

I’ll give you the first one. Damn good throw that was very well placed. But it’s a throw that an NFL qb should make, and to his credit, he did. Nothing earth shattering, but very encouraging.

The last one (elite pocket presence btw), as you’re saying, has him putting a lot of extra on it. He throws behind the receiver for an incompletion, it really isn’t traveling super fast, and still looks to have some arc/wobble. So if he’s dialing it up, as you say, and it isn’t registering as anything more than above average to you, and his accuracy is suffering, isn’t that a sign of overthrowing, even if it was situationally dictated? And if his overthrow strength appears to you as above average, he makes some really good throws that require NFL arm talent, but a lot of those throw require some arc....aren’t we closing in on average, or as I said, adequate? I’m just interpreting the wobbles and arc, accuracy lapses, and overall mediocre velocity on throws that require some extra as putting him on the fringe side of adequate, not on the above average side.

Jim, I just don’t see it like you do. There’s a limit to his arm upside, and it’s not a very high ceiling. We’re not dealing with elite, above average can flash with accuracy issues, and his average throws seem to require extra loft and don’t have impressive zip. I guess if fringe adequate is a 4, average/adequate is a 5, and slightly above average is a 6, I’d have him as a 4/5. Here is where I would define a scale of that nature. I’d assume you’d have him as a 5/6 on this scale.

10- Generational Talent
9- Elite
8- Significantly Above Average
7- Above Average
6- Slightly Above Average
5- Adequate/Average
4- Fringe Adequate
3- Below Average
2- Poor
1- Non-Prospect

I’d say most quarterbacks would fall between a 4-7 on this scale, with the occasional starter at a 3, and most career backups registering between a 2-5, and most camp bodies between 1-3. For comparison, I’d probably put early Flacco as a 7/8, more a 6/7 by the end of his time here. Mahomes as an 8/9 (maybe a 9, but some of his crazy throws make it harder to judge his max ceiling because of how unique the circumstances are), Stafford probably a 9. A 10 would be reserved for something once in a generation. The Pennington, Bridgewater, Taylor types start to fall into the 3/4 range.

[JimZipCode]

His arm strength vs Vick’s arm strength is why, outside the speed, I don’t get the Vick comparisons. Vick was fast and had a cannon. LJ is fast, but his arm strength is not cannon level. LJ also has much better talent than Vick ever had in the pocket, and LJ has far better intangibles and leadership ability than Vick ever had. This is why I compare LJ to a young Randall Cunningham

Except Cunningham had one hell of an arm too.

[The Excellector]

Except Cunningham had one hell of an arm too.

That he did. Even later in his career with the Vikings.

[JimZipCode]

I guess if fringe adequate is a 4, average/adequate is a 5, and slightly above average is a 6, I’d have him as a 4/5. Here is where I would define a scale of that nature. I’d assume you’d have him as a 5/6 on this scale.

10- Generational Talent
9- Elite
8- Significantly Above Average
7- Above Average
6- Slightly Above Average
5- Adequate/Average
4- Fringe Adequate
3- Below Average
2- Poor
1- Non-Prospect

This is EXTREMELY helpful! Someone should have thought of this weeks ago! Gives us a common language.

(Maybe would have spared Ed some "triggering" )

I have terminology quibbles:

• We should rename #3. You have average at #5, which means 4 is already below average; and 3 is even less than that. "Below adequate"? "Below threshold"? Something.
• Also, your list equates "Average" with "Adequate". Those don't mean the same thing. Assuming we mean "average" for a starter, then "adequate" is below that. Someone can have enough (adequate) arm strength for an NFL starter, while still being below the average NFL starter.
• I find your list confusing about where the actual threshold is, the Mendoza Line of enough arm strength to play the position.

So – keeping "average" at #5, applying my nitpicks, and explicitly defining the NFL threshold (possibly pushing it down one tick?), gives this:

10- Generational Talent
9- Elite
8- Significantly Above Average
7- Above Average
6- Slightly Above Average
5- Average
4- Adequate (but below average)
3- Fringe Adequate
2- Below NFL threshold
1- Poor/Non-Prospect

I still got some nitpicks here. Do we really need three different tiers of "above average"? It seems "not to scale", in the sense that the step from 6 to 7 doesn't look like the same size step as from 4 to 5. But whatever! This is more than enough for us to nail down some areas of agreement.

On this list, #3 is threshold: borderline enough arm strength to play the position. My reasoning is that if someone is truly on the border, then some games they'll look fine and some games they'll look incapable. Our judgement of them will fluctuate by game or situation. #4 is above threshold, #2 is below, and at #3 we may not be entirely sure.

And of course, someone's placement may change by age or injury. A 20yo may be at #3, and three years later at #5. Tom Brady was very clearly at 5-6 in the heart of his career, but maybe closer to the 3-4 range right now. And so forth.

Let's go back to your examples:

I’d say most quarterbacks would fall between a 4-7 on this scale, with the occasional starter at a 3, and most career backups registering between a 2-5, and most camp bodies between 1-3. For comparison, I’d probably put early Flacco as a 7/8, more a 6/7 by the end of his time here. Mahomes as an 8/9 (maybe a 9, but some of his crazy throws make it harder to judge his max ceiling because of how unique the circumstances are), Stafford probably a 9. A 10 would be reserved for something once in a generation. The Pennington, Bridgewater, Taylor types start to fall into the 3/4 range.

It's not fair to hold you to this numbering, since I changed your system a little. But on the whole I'm ok with these. Some quibbles, of course. I think peak Flacco was closer to a 9 than a 7. (Few QBs could have completed the Mile High Miracle.) I'm not positive that Mahomes isn't a 10; or rather, that he won't hit 10 at his athletic peak, around age 27-28. And I'm not sure philosophically where I stand on #10: maybe that's just a player who is consistently at #9 even thru his down / non-peak years? As opposed to it really being different from #9?

But these are minor; they are more footnotes than disagreements.

Slightly more substantively: while I agree that most career backups are in the 2-5 range, I also think that lack of arm strength is not the only reason for a player to not make it as a starter. Plenty of strong-armed guys are inaccurate, or can't read defenses, or won't put in the work, or are Jeff George. This list has an implicit "better arm equals better QB" evaluation in it, that I'm not comfortable with. I think you aren't comfortable with it either – so I'm fine with proceeding. I just wanted to make it explicit.

I’ll give you the first one. Damn good throw that was very well placed. But it’s a throw that an NFL qb should make, and to his credit, he did. Nothing earth shattering, but very encouraging.

Agreed. Like I said, nothing in those examples that was definitive. Merely suggestive.

I wanted to point that one out because, on many of Lamar's deep throws, you've observed that he rainbows them. Which can be an indicator of lack of arm strength. I don't think he did that here: that one looks like he drove it.

The last one (elite pocket presence btw), as you’re saying, has him putting a lot of extra on it. He throws behind the receiver for an incompletion, it really isn’t traveling super fast, and still looks to have some arc/wobble. So if he’s dialing it up, as you say, and it isn’t registering as anything more than above average to you, and his accuracy is suffering, isn’t that a sign of overthrowing, even if it was situationally dictated?

I disagree with every aspect of that.

• Not "behind the receiver at all", the ball is perfectly placed away from the defender, hits Crabtree in the chest. He just drops it.
• "Super" fast? It's travelling precisely as fast as it needs to, to get there on time (before the receiver goes OOB).
• I don't see any wobble?

The gif isn't exactly hi-def: I find the ball blurry, hard to pick up. I can't definitively say there's no wobble. But I myself don't see it.

I don't think Lamar's accuracy suffered from anything on that throw: the ball was perfect, just dropped. I don't even agree that he put "a lot of extra" on it. I think the play as rehearsed required a throw of a certain, uh, velocity; and after Lamar was clutched at by the defender, he was behind the designed timing for making the throw, so he threw a ball with a little more pace on it than was required when they practiced it. And he made that adjustment "effortlessly" – which is to say, I'm sure the throw itself required more "effort", but his judgment and adjustment to what was needed happened instantly.

Going back to our numbers: whatever arm strength the design of the play required, the execution in this place was at least one notch higher. So if the play-design gave a throw that we would rate a 4, the throw Lamar actually made was a 5+. Or if the designed throw would have been a 5, the actual throw was a 6+. I'm not gonna try to grade-inflate it any higher than that. I think the play-design was for a throw in the 4-5 range. What impressed me is that Lamar instantly (and seemingly effortlessly) processed and executed the throw as needed at a notch or so above planned. The adjustment impresses me: esp the speed of it. But we already knew Lamar has great processing speed. I do agree with you that in a vacuum, the throw itself is not ultra-special: absolutely no higher than a 7 or 8, and that's generous.

To me the relevance to the arm-strength discussion is in the adjustment; Lamar instantly going up a level, without any extra preparation. I think the ability to easily access "up" a level in delivery implies plenty of extra arm strength over the "designed" level. So for example, if the throw "as designed" was at a 4, and Lamar effortlessly up-shifts to a 5, then to me that implies he must at least be at 6. Or else the up-shift could not have been so effortless or seamless or whatever. If the "upshift" was to his max, then we would see more, uh, drama in the delivery. Remember all the runway Joe used for throwing the Mile High Miracle. This wasn't anywhere close to that percentage of effort. Therefor it was well within his "easy strength" zone.

So I included this throw, not because it required a certain level of arm strength, but because the easy adjustment to make it suggests a higher level of arm strength. As I said before, these plays are "suggestive". But you see this throw as inaccurate, and are umimpressed. We disagree. I have it as accurate but dropped. Cian Fahey has it that way too, if I can appeal to "authority".

...aren’t we closing in on average, or as I said, adequate? I’m just interpreting the wobbles and arc, accuracy lapses, and overall mediocre velocity on throws that require some extra as putting him on the fringe side of adequate, not on the above average side.

Jim, I just don’t see it like you do. There’s a limit to his arm upside, and it’s not a very high ceiling. We’re not dealing with elite, above average can flash with accuracy issues, and his average throws seem to require extra loft and don’t have impressive zip.

Not how I see it. I think the accuracy lapses are strictly due to the well-reported mechanical issues. (On at least one play we disagree whether there was even an accuracy lapse at all.)

I have Lamar as somewhere in the 6-8 range (on my scale). I think you have him in the 3-5 range (my list)?

Be aware I sometimes make a Polyanna "everyone's above average!" sort of mistake. It's possible my 6-8 is "really" a 5-7. That's one of my characteristic mistakes.

On the other hand, Lamar was only 21 last year. And spindly. If he was a 5, that suggests that he could be a solid 7+ at peak, around ages 26-8.



God, the preseason games can't get here soon enough.

[edromeo]

...

(Maybe would have spared Ed some "triggering" )

Once Steve reads your last post I don't think i'll be the "triggered" guy.

[Continuity Steve]

Once Steve reads your last post I don't think i'll be the "triggered" guy.

Nope, it was a good strong post that added a lot to the discussion. Try it sometime instead of festering.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

It's been super encouraging to read this exchange between Jim and Steve. Good posts lads. I'd give you rep, but I'm pretty sure I gave you both rep recently and can't anymore.