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Thread: Lamar statistical comps
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06-24-2019, 07:44 PM #13Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Jim must be par of the Ravens new analytics team. And I mean that as a compliment, this is detailed work
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06-24-2019, 07:56 PM #14Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Very much so, and I hope my previous posts don’t take away from the fact that I respect the time and effort it took to put all of this information together. But looking at seasons by different quarterbacks as a whole don’t really tell us much other than what each quarterback did. Unless there’s an adjusted stat, the way to look at this would be to break down season stats into categories that outline the types of throws by depth/location in different game situations and compare them to that same quarterback over the next year. That, while still limited, will give us a better idea of how that quarterback grew in similar categories from year one to two, whether or not the offense grew in complexity or whether or not the quarterback was asked to make more difficult throws, and whether or not that quarterback continued to show growth as the offense became more complex.
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06-24-2019, 09:20 PM #15Veteran Poster
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
https://youtu.be/tQ7kN86gI38
After watching these Tebow highlights, no one better ever put Lamar with Tebow. No one can seriously look at this and say Lamar is just as bad or worse. Yes Lamar needs work but he's never looked like Tebow.
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06-24-2019, 09:30 PM #16Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
A paragraph. Like 5 sentences. Could be six if we split at a semicolon (which arguably I should have).
You're so funny. You think you have some devastating argument, and it's obvious you haven't thought for even 2 seconds about it.
Here, let's do quintiles:
- 153-179 attempts: 11 players
- 182-204 attempts: 9 players
- 205-222 attempts: 10 players
- 227-250 attempts: 10 players
- 251-288 attempts: 9 players
So first of all, the # of players per quintile can't be even, because I fucked up my original post: only 49 players, not 50. One of the goups is gonna get shortchanged. The obvious choice is the top group, which of course will always have the highest spread.
Lest you think I am trying to game that bottom group: turns out Kyle Boller and Sex-god Grossman both had 179 attempts in their first seven starts. I had to put them both in either group 1 or group 2. Their number is closer to Trubisky's 178, than it is to Manziel's 182, so decision made.
Quintiles
#1: 153-179 attempts
Vick, Alex Smith, Lamar, Hasselbeck, David Carr, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Tebow, Trubisky, Boller, Grossman
11 players, 2 of them '18 rookies
16 Pro Bowls
2 CG
2 SB
1 SBW
#2: 182-204 attempts
Manziel, Troy Smith, Eli, Flacco, McNabb, Tim Couch, Josh McCown, Tannehill, Brees*
9 players
22 Pro Bowls (most of them Brees)
0 CG
1 SB
3 SBW
#3: 205-222 attempts
Goff, Matt Ryan, Cutler, Jameis, Cassel, Delhomme, Dalton, Josh Rosen, Darnold, Chris Redman
10 players, 2 of them '18 rooks
13 Pro Bowls
0 CG
3 SB
0 SBW
#4: 227-250 attempts
Derek Anderson, Schaub, Garcia, Kolb, Fitzmagic, Peyton*, Bridgewater, Carson P, Derek Carr, Mallet
10 players
28 Pro Bowls (half of them Peyton)
1 CG
1 SB
1 SBW
#5: 251-288 attempts
Osweiler, Cam Newton, Bortles, Sam Bradford, BakerHOF, Foles, Stafford, Cousins, Luck
9 players, 1 of them '18 rook
10 Pro Bowls
2 CG
1 SB
1 SBW
So, now what's your argument again? I "glossed over" passing attempts?
But: what is the significance of passing attempts here?
Quintile 1 has more Pro Bowl seasons and SB appearers (win or lose) than Quintile 5.
Quintile 1 has more SB appearers (win or lose) than Quintile 4.
Hell: if you throw out Peyton Manning and Drew Brees (shaky, I know), then Quintile 1 has more Pro Bowl seasons than any other quintile. It's not because it has 11 players: I promise you that Boller and Grossman are not the delta in Pro Bowls.
What am I glossing over again?
If you are trying to argue that the Quintile 1 QBs were not being groomed as "real" passers, then you have to explain Hasselbeck, Russell Wilson and Trubisky. Hell, maybe even Alex Smith,
Go ahead.
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06-24-2019, 09:35 PM #17Veteran Poster
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
https://youtu.be/nq-V5_OoObU
Here is Tebow working out and working on passing techs. He had tight spirals. No wobble. Again, I fail to see any comparison to Lamar. Lamar demonstrates better decision making and reads the defense better than Tebow. And I have nothing against Tebow. I actually think he should get another chance in the NFL as a backup and probably could be successful starting in today's NFL, but anyone saying Lamar is the next Tebow is talking out of their arse.
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06-24-2019, 09:41 PM #18Veteran Poster
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
https://youtu.be/RntBEKFBw9I
Here's more from Edgar.
What am I trying to prove? Nothing but I believe strongly that we have something very special in Lamar. 15 years later we're going to look back at this laughing as Lamar ends a potentially HOF career.
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06-24-2019, 10:57 PM #19Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Great post, despite an opener that seems intended to be snarky & sarcastic.
SOME other QBs stepped right into "complex offenses" as rookies, that required the QB to do a whole lot of stuff. I'm sure Indy threw everything on Peyton Manning's shoulders the moment he stepped into the facility; probably Andrew Luck too.
But remember: this was not a list of rookies. This was a highlight list of QBs over the past 20 yrs in their first seven starts.
Working down from the high-attempt end of the list:
- Kirk Cousins took 3 seasons to get 7 starts.
- Nick Foles took 2.
- Carson Palmer took 2. (Remember Marvin had him ride the bench behind Kitna for a year.)
- Kevin Kolb & Derek Anderson took 2 seasons.
- Matt Schaub eventually made 2 Pro Bowls; but it took him 4 seasons to get 7 starts.
- Jake Delhomme eventually took his team to the SB: but it took him 5 years to get 7 starts under his belt.
- Jay Cutler and Rex Grossman, 2 seasons
- Donovan McNabb, 6x Pro Bowler and SB QB, took 2 seasons to amass 7 starts.
- Matt Hasselbeck, 3x Pro Bowler and SB QB, took 3 seasons to amass 7 starts.
- Drew motherfucking Brees didn't get any starts until year 2. He sat behind Doug Flutie as a rookie under Norv Turner.
Jeff Garcia was a 29yo "rookie"; a 5-yr CFL veteran, Grey Cup winner and MVP.
So when you say some of these guys were able to "step right into complex offenses" in their first seven starts: well no shit. A dozen or so of them had extra years to prepare for those starts. They damn well should have been ready.
Some of the QBs did step right into the role of running every aspect of a full-featured, "normal" NFL offense, as rookies. I don't think it's very many. This part is a little subjective: but certainly Peyton, Luck, maybe Stafford. Derek Carr? Jeff Garcia with asterisk. Matt Ryan. Cam? Was that a "normal" offense? Whatever, he was certainly running it from day 1. Andy Dalton? I'm not sure who else qualified. I guess Bradford (blech).
- Five of those guys were drafted #1 overall: Peyton, Cam, Luck, Stafford, Bradford.
- Jeff Garcia was a 5-yr pro veteran
- Matty Ice, Red Rifle and Derek Carr were 5th-yr seniors.
#1 overall picks are traditionally thrown into the soup, the "sink or swim" school of QB development. If he can't handle it, well fuck it, I guess we messed up with that draft pick. The other guys were very, very well prepared. Unusually well prepared, I think it's safe to say. Ryan was described thruout the pre-draft as "pro ready"; and he went #3 overall. Dalton & Carr were surprises.
Can you go thru that list and double-check? I have less than 10 guys, who were given the keys to full-featured NFL offenses in their first year. But maybe there's more that I overlooked.
A lot of the rest of these guys weren't doing anything more sophisticated their rookie seasons, than Lamar was.
- Boller and Joe and Trubisky all had the handcuffs on.
- Alex Smith had the handcuffs on, and he was a #1 overall pick!
- David Carr was just running for his life and getting the shit kicked out of him.
- Russell Wilson was leaning on Marshawn Lynch and the Legion of Boom.
- Eli Manning, like Lamar, didn't start until the 10th game of the season.
Eli's season was sort of the anti-Lamar: the Giants were 5-4 when he took over, and promptly lost the next 6, finished 6-10. He was terrible.
Of this year's rookies: I didn't pay any attention to Darnold; Josh Allen just threw a couple more passes per game than Lamar, and generally was less poised and less accurate. Josh Rosen was in an awful situation. Baker, I probably should have listed him above in the "given the keys" section. I was fooled a little by the way Hue Jackson jerked him around; but the Brownies did put everything on his plate, once they committed to him. Of couse he was also drafted 1/1.
So my reply is that there are three categories of QB:
One
Damn few of them were able to step right in as rookies and run "complex" or full-featured offenses. They tended to be the #1/1 draft picks, playing for bad teams, and made to sink-or-swim; with a couple of non-standard items, like Jeff Garcia, or "surprise" players like Andy Dalton or Derek Carr. And I'm not sure Dalton makes this list without AJ Green coming in the same draft.
Two
Other QBs who were handling full offenses in their first seven starts, were in their second year or more in the league. Extra years of preparation.
Three
Everyone else: players who were "eased in" one way or the other. Strong rushing attacks and choose-your-spots passing. Joe Flacco & Mitch Trubisky & Russell Wilson fit in this group; I think Alex Smith too. Probly Josh Allen, if you count QB runs. Certainly Kyle Boller & Tim Tebow.
Lamar is in group 3.
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06-24-2019, 11:23 PM #20Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
I think your arithmetic is off.
If I isolate just last year's rookies, then:
There are 8 who attemped 30+ passes:
BakerHof
Darnold
Rosen
Allen
Lamar
Nick Mullens
Jeff Driskel
Kyle Allen
In the last 15 years, 2/3 of such QB went up in comp% and 3/4 in rating.
So I have to pick 2 of those to decline in passer rating? Well – hell, I'm 100% going to take Kyle Allen; and then I guess Jeff Driskel. If Galapagos wins back the starting job in SF, I'll switch to Mullen. Or both. I expect Josh Rosen to improve in passer rating.
2.5 to 3 of them to decline in comp%? Allen again; and Mullens; and I guess Driskel.
Of those 8 QBs, there are 4 or started 10 games or less: Lamar, Mullens, Driskel, and Kyle Allen. In the last 15 years, 85% & 75% improved in comp % & rating – I forget which pct goes with which stat, but either way it's one player or less. I'll go with Kyle Allen all day, to decline.
No wait, that's wrong. It's four qualifiers for this year; but to get into the dataset, they'd need to start 10+ games next year. That may only be Lamar; or Lamar and Mullens. With just two guys, the stats don't "require" either one of them to decline in pctg or rating. I'd pick Mullen if I had to pick one.
Wait. Mullen wasn't even a rookie last year! His rookie season was 2017. He was a second-year player last year.
Fuck it, I'm lost. If it's only Lamar who qualifies for next year, than he just becomes part of the vast majority that improved.
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06-24-2019, 11:28 PM #21Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
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06-24-2019, 11:40 PM #22Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
That's a nice one! I hadn't seen it yet. Great view of Lamar holding that LB with his eyes.
And then the sidearm throw comes out, as part of Lamar's misdirection to the defense! That's an interesting detail! I wonder how many of Lamar's "unnecessary" sidearms, were done for that exact purpose.
Fascinating.
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06-25-2019, 12:08 AM #23Four-eyed Raven
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
I mentioned this to Continuity Steve; but silly me, I didn't even look to see how it applied to some of the data I had.
My long list of ~50 QBs, limited to QBs who posted a passer rating less than 90 in their first seven career starts. It was intended as a response for those who say that a QB with Lamar's statistics (comp%, passer rating) can't be successful in the NFL. I wanted to list a bunch of QBs in "Lamar's ballpark". So I kept it to ratings under 90.
When I looked at the QBs with ratings over 90 in their first seven starts, it's frankly shocking how many of them did not do it in their rookie season:
Sorted by passer ratingPlayer Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Notes Tom Brady* 135 211 63.98 1380 11 5 90.2 2 seasons Nick Mullens 153 241 63.49 1995 10 7 91.2 2 seasons Carson Wentz 150 228 65.79 1526 9 3 92.5 Tim Rattay 159 249 63.86 1809 13 5 94.6 5 seasons Shaun Hill 129 207 62.32 1499 13 5 95.1 2 seasons Cody Kessler 119 178 66.85 1241 6 1 95.7 Philip Rivers 139 210 66.19 1536 10 3 97.6 3 seasons Matt Moore 114 182 62.64 1392 10 3 97.6 3 seasons Matt Flynn 157 243 64.61 1886 16 7 98.2 4 seasons Tony Romo 145 220 65.91 1900 11 6 98.3 3 seasons Marcus Mariota 147 224 65.63 1795 13 6 98.3 Tyrod Taylor 130 193 67.36 1474 10 4 98.7 5 seasons Aaron Rodgers* 145 221 65.61 1668 12 4 98.8 4 seasons Daunte Culpepper 119 191 62.30 1671 14 7 99.6 2 seasons Dak Prescott 144 221 65.16 1773 9 2 99.6 Colin Kaepernick 120 192 62.50 1608 10 3 99.9 2 seasons Jimmy Garoppolo 160 235 68.09 2038 10 5 100.3 2 seasons Billy Volek 203 313 64.86 2305 19 5 100.4 2 seasons Deshaun Watson 131 215 60.93 1773 19 8 101.2 2 seasons Marc Bulger 138 214 64.49 1826 14 6 101.5 3 seasons Robert Griffin 133 189 70.37 1601 7 3 101.8 Ben Roethlisberger* 105 151 69.54 1274 9 4 104.0 Patrick Mahomes 157 247 63.56 2149 18 5 107.2 2 seasons Chad Pennington 146 198 73.74 1571 11 3 108.8 3 seasons Kurt Warner* 147 208 70.67 1859 21 3 125.9 6 seasons
If you're like me, your #1 quesiton after looking at this table is: what the hell happened to Cody Kessler?? The answer, obviously, is Hue Jackson.
The list of true rookies with passer rating over 90 in their first seven starts is:
Wentz
Kessler
Mariota
Dak
RG3
Ben
Continuity Steve mentioned a yardstick, QBs who immediately assumed control of a full-featured offense. I would argue that even many of these guys, don't make the cut there.
- Dak was a game manager for Ezekiel Elliott and the most dominating O-line in the game.
- RG3 was running an offense designed especially for him, with lots of option stuff.
- Ben game-managed with one of the two best Ds in the league. Hell, he had less attemps-per-game than Lamar.
What about Wentz? I mean, he's great; but did Doug Pederson have a lot of RPOs and simplified reads for him? Did it qualify as what ContSteve called a "complex" offense?
Was Mariota running a "complex" offense, or that "exotic smashmouth" the Titans were talking about one of those years?
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Re: Lamar statistical comps
Excellent post. That’s where I’ve been in this. I think it’s very difficult to take the limited attempts by a rookie and project them over a season or a career. In this case it’s even harder because the offense is being changed to something that none of us has seen. It’s going to take this season to really get enough information for a proper analysis. The waiting is tough but I’d be very surprised if these guesses based on last year actually become the basis of 2019.
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