Lamar statistical comps

[JimZipCode]

You know what we need? Another Lamar thread!


Inspired by this from BPR:

I looked at Year 1 and Year 2 stats of 23 1st round QBs going back to 2009.
These guys were highly drafted and/or have been franchise QBs.

On completion pct, 14 progressed and 9 regressed from year 1 to year 2.
The average change was +2.1%.

Among the ten QBs that had a Year 1 comp% of 58.3 or less (Lamar's comp% was 58.2%), none of them regressed.
Their average improvement was 4.4% (median, 4.05%)

Geno f-in Smith improved 3.9%.
Blaine f-in Gabbert improved 7.5%.

I dug into PFR for some stuff.



In the past 15 seasons, there have been 41 QBs who meet the following criteria:

http://pfref.com/tiny/BBiVD

• Drafted in the first 2 rounds
• Attempted 30+ passes their rookie season and their second season

Some of the guys who DIDN'T make that last filter include Rivers & Kaep & Osweiler, who each had <10 attempts as rookies; Aaron Rodgers & Jimmy Galapagos, who were parked behind HOFamers as rookies; and poor Jimmy Clausen, who threw ~300 passes as a rookie but then missed his entire second season.

Of those 41, from their first to second seasons:

• Completion pctg: 27 went up, 14 went down, median +3
• Passer rating: 31 went up, 10 went down, median +8

I took their median attempts, completes, yards etc from Year 1 and Year 2, and used those raw stats to calculate completion % and passer rating:

All 41	Comp	Att	YD	TD	INT	Pct	Y/Att	Rating
Median Year1	196	364	2267	12	11	53.8%	6.2	71.3
Median Year2	265	442	2935	17	11	60.0%	6.6	82.2

So the median passer threw more passes in Year 2 (+80) while still raising their completion% (+6.2) and passer rating (+10.9).
If you add the comp% and rating delta's to Lamar's 2018 stats, you get 64.4% completions and a passer rating of 95.4.

Here are some QBs whose 2018 passer ratings were within a point or two of that:

Aaron Rodgers	97.6
Dak Prescott	96.9
Ben Rapistburger	96.5
Mitch Trubisky	95.4
Cam Newton	94.2
Derek Carr	93.9
Baker Mayfield	93.7

That's right around the midpoint: Rodgers was #13, Baker #19 in the league. Very solid.

---

At the risk of drilling deep into the data mine, we can isolate further. *13* of those guys started 10 games or less their rookie season, and then 10 games or more their second season. That's the category that Lamar should fit into (knocks wood). These are the 13:

Eli Manning
Alex Smith
Jay Cutler
Jason Campbell
Tarvaris Jackson
JaMarcus Russell
Josh Freeman
Tim Tebow
Christian Ponder
Jake Locker
Jared Goff
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson

Of those 13:

• Completion pctg: 11 went up, 2 went down, median +4.85
• Passer rating: 10 went up, 3 went down, median +11

Here's the medians of the magic 13, from their first to second seasons:

Composite13	Comp	Att	YD	TD	INT	Pct	Y/Att	Rating
Median Year1	84	165	1001	5	6	50.9%	6.1	64.7
Median Year2	291	467	2935	18	11	62.3%	6.3	83.2
Lamar Year 1	99	170	1201	6	3	58.2%	7.1	84.5

So the median passer threw 300 more passes, while still dramatically raising their completion% (+11.4) and passer rating (+18.5).
Notice that Lamar's 2018 raw counting stats fit very nicely next to the median Year 1 stats; this isn't apples to oranges. But his efficiency numbers are much better.

I'm not going to add that comp% and rating delta to Lamar's 2018 stats, because you get into the top 5 and top 7 in the league. Well into the wishful thinking zone at this point; esp with no established WRs on this roster.

But, if you had to pick whether Lamar's efficency numbers are more likely to go up or down this coming season? The objective data gives a very clear answer.

[JimZipCode]

In the last 20 years, a whole bunch of QBs have started their first seven games, while posting a passer rating below 90. Like over 200 players. Here are ~50 of the most "interesting".

"Interesting":

I tried to keep this list short enough to read. If I included everyone, you would be bored to tears scrolling thru names like Spergon Wynne and Keith Null and Sage Rosenfels and Bryce Petty and Cody Kesler. I kept in guys who eventually went on to make Pro Bowls or take their teams to Conf Champship Games. I left in guys who were Ravens at some point, even though Ryan Mallett is not particularly interesting. I kept in some guys who were recent top-ten picks, even though there is nothing remotely interesting about Ryan Tannehill except his wife. I kept in all the 2018 rookies. Tried to toss everyone else. Kept Brock Osweiler because he's a current "name".

In the "notes" column below:

• "x seasons" means how many seasons it took the player to get his 7 starts. Rex Grossman had spot starts across three seasons before taking over as the starter in season four; Jake Delhomme had 2 spot starts his rookie season, and didn't become a full-time starter until his 5th season.
• "CG" means the QB took his team to at least one Conf Champship Game. Many QBs who took their team to SBs also took their teams to CGs in other seasons, but I didn't bother to list those separately (except for Joe).
• "SB" means took his team to at least one SB. Winners are denoted with SBW. For SBWs, I didn't separately mention other SB appearances; you're aware of them.

You know what narrative I'm pushing here. But hold off for a second and look at these comps; I'll spell out the narrative in a reply-post below, and we can argue about it then.

The table is too large for one post so I had to split it. Here's the first 25:

In order by passer rating

#	Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Notes
1	Alex Smith	78	154	50.7	841	1	11	39.4	3x Pro Bowl, CG
2	Ryan Fitzmagic	139	240	57.9	1094	3	12	52.7	14yr career; 4 seasons
3	Eli Manning	92	188	48.9	977	6	9	55.2	4x Pro Bowl, 2xSBW
4	Matthew Stafford	144	265	54.3	1489	6	12	59.5	Pro Bowl
5	Kyle Boller	95	179	53.1	982	5	7	62.2	Raven
6	Carson Palmer	136	247	55.1	1468	5	10	62.6	3x Pro Bowl, CG; 2 seasons
7	Donovan McNabb	100	193	51.8	912	9	8	63.2	6x Pro Bowl, SB; 2 seasons
8	Peyton Manning	131	240	54.6	1595	9	14	63.5	14x Pro Bowl, 5x MVP, 2xSBW
9	Jared Goff	112	205	54.6	1089	5	7	63.6	2x Pro Bowl, SB
10	Josh Allen	95	176	54.0	1149	5	7	67.2	'18 rook
11	Ryan Mallett	139	250	55.6	1346	5	6	67.5	Raven; 2 seasons
12	Josh Rosen	121	221	54.8	1380	9	9	70.3	'18 rook
13	Matt Hasselbeck	96	172	55.8	1079	4	5	70.4	3x Pro Bowl, SB
14	Joe Flacco	119	191	62.3	1216	3	7	70.5	Raven; SBW; +2xCG
15	Mitchell Trubisky	94	178	52.8	1135	4	4	70.8	Pro Bowl
16	Rex Grossman	96	179	53.6	1210	4	5	70.8	SB; 3 seasons
17	Blake Bortles	162	254	63.8	1698	6	12	71.3	CG
18	Sam Bradford	146	260	56.2	1483	9	8	71.4	RoY
19	David Carr	89	175	50.9	1188	7	6	71.8	#1 overall pick
20	Derek Anderson	124	227	54.6	1689	13	14	72.0	Raven; Pro Bowl; 2 seasons
21	Jake Delhomme	126	218	57.8	1452	7	8	73.4	Pro Bowl, SB; 5 seasons
22	Sam Darnold	124	221	56.1	1552	10	10	74.3	'18 rook
23	Andrew Luck	160	288	55.6	1971	8	8	74.6	4x Pro Bowl, CG
24	Jeff Garcia	135	236	57.2	1536	6	6	74.8	4x Pro Bowl

Remainder of list to follow.

[JimZipCode]

Part 2:

In order by passer rating

#	Player	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Notes
25	Teddy Bridgewater	146	242	60.3	1539	6	7	75.1	Pro Bowl
26	Tim Couch	104	193	53.9	1161	7	4	75.5	#1 overall pick
27	Ryan Tannehill	120	203	59.1	1472	4	6	75.8	Married to Lauren
28	Josh McCown	122	200	61.0	1366	3	4	78.0	15 yr career; 2 seasons
29	Chris Redman	120	222	54.1	1332	9	4	78.1	Raven; 6 seasons
30	Kirk Cousins	165	284	58.1	2043	12	11	78.4	Pro Bowl; 3 seasons
31	Tim Tebow	83	176	47.2	1177	10	4	78.7	2 seasons
32	Russell Wilson	104	175	59.4	1230	8	7	79.5	5x Pro Bowl, SBW
33	Matt Ryan	116	205	56.6	1441	7	5	79.7	4x Pro Bowl, SB
34	Johnny Manziel	109	182	59.9	1255	6	5	80.3	2 seasons
35	Matt Cassel	143	215	66.5	1414	6	7	80.6	Pro Bowl
36	Troy Smith	98	186	52.7	1393	6	3	81.2	Raven; 4 seasons
37	Kevin Kolb	148	239	61.9	1714	10	9	81.8	2 seasons
38	Derek Carr	152	249	61.0	1517	9	5	82.0	3x Pro Bowl
39	Michael Vick	84	153	54.9	972	5	1	82.5	4x Pro Bowl, CG; 2 seasons
40	Lamar Jackson	92	158	58.2	1114	5	3	82.6	Raven
41	Andy Dalton	136	218	62.4	1479	9	7	82.7	3x Pro Bowl
42	Cam Newton	152	252	60.3	2103	8	9	82.8	3x Pro Bowl, MVP, RoY, SB
43	Drew Brees	127	204	62.3	1332	9	6	83.6	12x Pro Bowl, SBW, HOF
44	Nick Foles	161	264	61.0	1776	8	4	84.7	Pro Bowl, SBW; 2 seasons
45	Jameis Winston	123	210	58.6	1648	10	7	85.6	Pro Bowl
46	Jay Cutler	127	209	60.8	1574	11	8	85.7	Pro Bowl; 2 seasons
47	Baker Mayfield	159	262	60.7	1783	13	7	86.4	'18 rook
48	Matt Schaub	146	232	62.9	1785	8	6	87.3	2x Pro Bowl; 4 seasons
49	Brock Osweiler	156	251	62.2	1821	9	5	87.8

Narrative:

Lamar's efficiency numbers in his first seven starts, compare very favorably to many other QBs from the last 20 yrs who went on to be among the most successful QBs in the game: Pro Bowl mainstays, Conf Champship weekend mainstays.
For those people maintaining that Lamar's accuracy is a red flag: the statistics argue that's bullshit. Lamar's comp% in his first seven starts was better than Matt Ryan's, Andrew Luck's, Carson Palmer, Jared Goff, Peyton Manning, Mitch Trubisky, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning. His yards-per-att was better than Matty Ice, Russ, Luck, BakerHOF, Red Rifle, Peyton, Trubisky, Eli, Donovan.

Counter-narrative:

Look at that low number of attempts! Those others were used as real QBs; Lamar was not!

Counter-counter-narrative:

Eh. Lamar is in the middle of the bottom 5 by # of attempts. If I look at that whole bottom 10: Lamar has a few more than Alex Smith & Michael Vick; he has a dozen to 20 less than
Matt Hasselbeck, David Carr, Russell Wilson, Mitch Trubisky. It's no big deal. Two or three fewer attempts-per-game than Hasselbeck or Russ or Trubisky; are we arguing that their teams were not trying to develop them as "real" QBs? I think not.

Wilson is a fabulous comp for Lamar. Their college stats are almost identical thru their first three seasons; then Russ transferred to Wisconsin and posted a great senior season, while Lamar went pro and played his "senior season" in the NFL.



There you go: data + narrative. Do with it what you will.

[RavenIsh]

Excellent research. Here's a video by Edgar Allen on Lamar's eyes on defense.

https://youtu.be/PSmrVH-Npzo

[Continuity Steve]

Part 2:

Counter-narrative:

Look at that low number of attempts! Those others were used as real QBs; Lamar was not!

You really should join our PR team, Jim Harbaugh-Jackson.

Your counterpoint, while clearly intended to gloss over valid criticism, really got me thinking. I wonder if there is a stat out there that can adjust for difficulty of passing in all of these different systems. Anyone being honest can tell you that Lamar was running a simplified passing offense that didn’t require him to make every throw on the field all of the time. He tended to stick to short/intermediate right, and showed his best throwing intermediate middle. Which is fair, because he wasn’t drafted as a complete passer with elite arm strength, accuracy, and ability to step right into the most complex passing offense. If we’re being fair, his pure throwing strength/velocity is fringe average, his accuracy has lapses, and he was used in a way that capitalized on his right now ability. He showed quite a bit throwing intermediate middle and his pocket presence/ability to make the first person miss is absolutely elite. I think his performance reflected his current ability in a specialized offense designed to use him as his current ability suggested he should be used.

With that said, other quarterbacks on this list stepped right into complex offenses that required them to make every throw in the game. I’d expect them, as rookies, to show more or different struggles as they are exposed to more passing scenarios where they could struggle. In those same scenarios, I’d expect Lamar to show a wider array of struggles. Instead, we saw him perform adequately, with ups and downs, in a limited system that focused on what he can do. The question is, are there stats out there that adjust to complexity and difficulty of offensive scenarios to put everyone on a true level playing field? As it stands, I’m not sure the stats here tell the whole picture. We know what Lamar can do in a system focused on his strengths, but we don’t know what he can do in a complex offense, and there are still, fairly so, many more questions to be answered.

[Laxdad24]

So Jimmy ....by your stats and math ...if you isolate just Lamar’s draft class there were 5 first round QBs and All of them started at some point. Your stats show 66% of QBs improved from yr 1 to yr 2. So that same percent applied to the 5 QBs last yr equals 3 will improve and 2 will regress. I don’t think you can really say Lamar is “Likey” to improve. At 3:2 it’s not even money. So of the 5 : Darnold , Mayfield , Allan, Rosen or Lamar. Two have to regress using your metric. So..I’ll give Rosen ( although I think Miami is gonna be better for him ) and then ________ to regress. Who you got?


“You gonna do something .....or just stand there and bleed” Wyatt Earp

[The Excellector]

All of that, to gloss over the disparity in passing attempts..............what, a sentence on it?

[Laxdad24]

All of that, to gloss over the disparity in passing attempts..............

“You gonna do something .....or just stand there and bleed” Wyatt Earp

[The Excellector]

“You gonna do something .....or just stand there and bleed” Wyatt Earp

Lol. I mean, Jim must be one of those people who makes long posts, hoping that no one reads through the entire thing.

[Continuity Steve]

All of that, to gloss over the disparity in passing attempts..............what, a sentence on it?

A thread like this is just going to confirm the opinions of both sides of the Lamar debate. Truth is, there’s a lot of very good quarterbacks and a lot of very bad quarterbacks scattered high, low, and in the middle of that list. All of which were in their own unique offense being asked to do a varying degree of things passing the ball. All stats are not equal when it comes to comparing rookie quarterbacks, and we need to watch the games and be able to project likelihood of growth as the offenses grow in complexity. Some quarterbacks that did okay doing a lot of things in a complex offense developed to be great in a complex offense. Some didn’t. Some quarterbacks that did great in a limited offense developed to be great in a more complex offense. Some didn’t. These comparisons don’t tell anyone anything, and just reinforce unrealistic expectations. With Lamar, there is evidence of success and of areas for growth in a limited system. He has a long way to go if we want him to be a complete QB in a complex system. Maybe he develops, maybe he doesn’t. Maybe he does good enough to win in a limited system for a limited time, maybe he doesn’t. Comparing his numbers to others, his degree of pass wobble to Manning, or his grip to Favre doesn’t tell us anything other than what his numbers are, that his passes wobble, and that he has a slightly unorthodox grip. I think everyone just needs to settle down and see what happens. It’s okay to be optimistic as a fan, much as it is okay to prefer a different direction as a fan.

[Laxdad24]

A thread like this is just going to confirm the opinions of both sides of the Lamar debate. Truth is, there’s a lot of very good quarterbacks and a lot of very bad quarterbacks scattered high, low, and in the middle of that list. All of which were in their own unique offense being asked to do a varying degree of things passing the ball. All stats are not equal when it comes to comparing rookie quarterbacks, and we need to watch the games and be able to project likelihood of growth as the offenses grow in complexity. Some quarterbacks that did okay doing a lot of things in a complex offense developed to be great in a complex offense. Some didn’t. Some quarterbacks that did great in a limited offense developed to be great in a more complex offense. Some didn’t. These comparisons don’t tell anyone anything, and just reinforce unrealistic expectations. With Lamar, there is evidence of success and of areas for growth in a limited system. He has a long way to go if we want him to be a complete QB in a complex system. Maybe he develops, maybe he doesn’t. Maybe he does good enough to win in a limited system for a limited time, maybe he doesn’t. Comparing his numbers to others, his degree of pass wobble to Manning, or his grip to Favre doesn’t tell us anything other than what his numbers are, that his passes wobble, and that he has a slightly unorthodox grip. I think everyone just needs to settle down and see what happens. It’s okay to be optimistic as a fan, much as it is okay to prefer a different direction as a fan.

Well said.


“You gonna do something .....or just stand there and bleed” Wyatt Earp

[BhndEnemyLines20]

So Jimmy ....by your stats and math ...if you isolate just Lamar’s draft class there were 5 first round QBs and All of them started at some point. Your stats show 66% of QBs improved from yr 1 to yr 2. So that same percent applied to the 5 QBs last yr equals 3 will improve and 2 will regress. I don’t think you can really say Lamar is “Likey” to improve. At 3:2 it’s not even money. So of the 5 : Darnold , Mayfield , Allan, Rosen or Lamar. Two have to regress using your metric. So..I’ll give Rosen ( although I think Miami is gonna be better for him ) and then ________ to regress. Who you got?


“You gonna do something .....or just stand there and bleed” Wyatt Earp

I'm wondering if we should re-examine the list focusing on the last 5 or so years, because it feels like teams have gotten way better at knowing how to let their young QBs develop.

For instance, by the numbers you're right, only 66% of QBs improved from year 1 to 2. However, of the 3 eligible QBs drafted in 2017 (Watson, Mahomes, Trubisky), all 3 improved (Kizer also was drafted in round 2 but he obviously didn't do anything last year and thus is excluded).


Of the 2018 QBs, you're right it's hard to point to 2 obvious candidates for decline (though I wouldn't be shocked if Baker moves sideways despite the wild WR talent), and I think it's because teams realized that it's dumb to just throw a rookie into the fire: you have to build an offense and team which can grow around them as the center point.

EDIT: for the record i'm not trying to cherry pick 2017 QBs as examples, they're just the only ones I've looked at and now have to go home

EDIT 2: Very quickly looking at the 2016 QBs, the trend continues: Wentz and Goff both improved, and Dak took a step back, but I will gladly go to battle if anyone makes the claim Dak is a better QB than Lamar either now or coming out of college. Also Dallas is a shit show, the Ravens less so.