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  1. #397
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2...pe-of-throw/3/

    On non-play-action throws, no quarterback had a better passer rating than
    Jackson's 111.6 which he constructed with 178 completions on 269 attempts
    for 2,112 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just six interceptions.



    https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/2020...t-play-action/

    LAMAR JACKSON IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK WITHOUT PLAY-ACTION
    Last edited by edromeo; 06-14-2020 at 03:05 PM.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  2. #398

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Incredible how Tannehill feasts on play action





  3. #399

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by Julius486 View Post
    Incredible how Tannehill feasts on play action
    Tannehill looked decent, if injury prone, when he was young before he got Gase-d. It makes me wonder how good Darnold might look when he finally gets out from under Gase.





  4. #400
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    Lamar: Reading Progressions

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking...w-brees-aaron-

    Notably, Lamar Jackson continues to break the (false) narrative that he can't read through his progression as a passer. Since coming into the league, Jackson ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of percentage of first-read throws. And if we were to confine ourselves to just his MVP season, the number gets even better and places him in the top five, one spot better than Aaron Rodgers.

    Jackson has always worked through his progression well, and he grades pretty well when he does so, and that is entirely independent of any value he adds with his legs.
    Last edited by edromeo; 06-26-2020 at 01:50 PM.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  5. #401
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    The NFL’s top runners against stacked boxes in 2019: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and more
    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-top-run...-lamar-jackson

    2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
    PFF Rushing Grade: 80.5

    As the only non-running back on the list, Jackson’s case is obviously unique. His 89-carry sample did come almost entirely on designed runs (82 of 89 rushing attempts), though, so it’s not as if the grade is buoyed heavily by scramble opportunities. No one was better at moving the chains than Jackson. He ran for a first down or touchdown on a league-high 39% of his carries against stacked boxes, and he was also one of the most effective runners in the league when it came to making defenders miss. Jackson forced 19 missed tackles on his 89 carries with eight or more defenders in the box.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  6. #402
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post

    **The curl route is 88.9% not 8.9 image got corrupted a little flying through the interwebs from my cell

    ^^From PFF QB Annual
    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    Route Mahomies - Route Usage % and Passer Rating Lamar - Route Usage % and Passer Rating
    Go Route 10% - 110 12% - 82
    Corner 5% - 114 3% - 123
    Curl 15% - 98 12% - 89
    Comeback 1% - 42 2% - 5*
    Out Route 11% - 102 13% - 98
    Post 2% - 140 2% - 149

    * "Comeback Routes": This is the definition of a small sample size so small what does it really tell you?
    That is a total of 8 throws for Lamar and 4 throws for Mahomies

    I choose Mahomes as a comp because he's generally considered the best QB in the NFL.
    So if Lamar lacks velocity and accuracy on deep perimeter throws then shouldn't his be considerably below the best QB in the NFL?
    Especially considering the difference in quality of receiving targets?
    I heard you talk on the fan call, the thing you did with the season ticket holders a couple weeks ago, about how you felt the downfield passing game might be the next step for QB Lamar Jackson and this offense. What does that look like to you if that's working really well? (Bo Smolka)

    "Like anything else, I was misinterpreted by the headline writers. It'll be good if you guys got better control of the headline writers sometimes, because I ask you about it, and you say, 'Well, I don't write the headlines.' It wasn't just deep balls. We're talking about pushing the ball to spots where the defense is not. Our offense – like any offense – the idea is to force people to defend certain things.

    Hopefully, they can't do it in a balanced way, and you have to overcommit resources to certain aspects of the game – that's the chess game. And a lot of times, the way our offense sets up sometimes, those throws will be outside, intermediate or downfield – downfield down the middle or down the sidelines.

    It can be on the sidelines with outs, comebacks, deep curls, deep stop routes. It can be deep stop routes over the middle.

    These are all types of routes that we have time to throw, a lot of times. If we can, really, [we want to] more and more hurt people. And we hurt them a lot of times last year. Lamar [Jackson] has good numbers throwing the ball like this, but that's an area that we want to really see if we can make people defend those parts of the field, even more than they have in the past, and just try to create more problems and put them in more conflicts, even than we did last year."
    https://www.baltimoreravens.com/news...day-transcript
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  7. #403
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Bill Barnwell has a very nice piece on ESPN today, reviewing Lamar's success from last season and prospects for this upcoming season. Nice mix of Xs-&-Os plus analytics:


    A progress report on the Ravens star, and what to expect in 2020
    by Bill Barnwell · 6/20/2020
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ar-expect-2020
    The 2020 outlook
    If only because it's virtually impossible to improve on an MVP campaign, history suggests that Jackson will decline some this season. He threw touchdowns on 9% of his pass attempts last season, which was just the third time a player has managed that over a full season since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The other two guys are Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers, who were only able to do that once. It's no criticism of Jackson to suggest that a 9% TD rate will be nearly impossible to replicate.

    Both Jackson and the offense around him were also very healthy.
    ...
    Hurst was traded to Atlanta ... More significant was the retirement of star guard Marshal Yanda... while they're one of the best teams in the league when it comes to drafting and developing interior linemen, it's tough to imagine them getting Yanda-quality play at right guard this season.
    ...
    With that being said, barring serious injury, Jackson isn't going anywhere. He's going to present the same problems for opposing defenses in the years to come, and the Ravens are committed to building their offense around his dizzying array of skills. Asking for another MVP performance in 2020 is likely too much, but he should remain one of the best quarterbacks in football.





  8. #404

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    I think one of the things that gives me hope that this offense will continue to be great is that Roman and Lamar strike me as people who are deeply introspective, who understand you have to constantly adjust before the league adjusts to you, etc. I have no doubts that Roman will do whatever is necessary schematically to put Lamar and the offense in the best position to succeed, and that mentality holds from the bottom on up to Eric and John.

    Also helps that Lamar is just a freak of nature.

    I think Harbs' comments about wanting to attack the defense in more areas of the field reflects the knowledge that the Ravens coaching staff is expecting more teams to try and mirror what the Titans did, even if they don't have the same personnel for it; trying to flood the box, crowd the middle of the field, etc. I'm comforted that the Ravens seem to know what to expect. I welcome teams to try that strategy with a healthy Hollywood out there, with Duvernay out there, with a more involved Miles Boykin. I think we might have a similar "stunning" effect on teams this year as we did last year with the Dolphins game, where teams were stunned that Lamar could throw the ball at all. It's a much higher bar to clear this year, but I can see the headlines being written now; "The Ravens can attack the field vertically. What Now?"





  9. #405
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Next Gen Stats
    @NextGenStats
    2:48 PM · Jul 10, 2020
    https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...61515695894529
    Lamar Jackson was the only qualified quarterback to finish with a non-negative EPA/attempt on tight window passes last season.

    The top 5 most efficient quarterbacks when targeting receivers with less than 1 yard of separation:


    Next Gen Stats
    @NextGenStats
    2:53 PM · Jul 10, 2020
    https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...62827175071746
    Tight window passes, on average, net -0.27 expected points added per attempt.

    Open attempts (3+ yards of separation), on average, net +0.46 expected points added per attempt.





  10. #406

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Next Gen Stats
    @NextGenStats
    2:48 PM · Jul 10, 2020
    https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...61515695894529


    Next Gen Stats
    @NextGenStats
    2:53 PM · Jul 10, 2020
    https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...62827175071746
    Would you be inclined to guess this stat suggests he was really good, really lucky, or both; last season?





  11. #407
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by tnsmith90 View Post
    Would you be inclined to guess this stat suggests he was really good, really lucky, or both; last season?
    Fair question. I would like to know the number of attempts.

    I think Tom Brady's (and Peyton Manning's) career tells us that the key to quarterbacking is not necessarily attempting those throws, but instead attempting the right throws. I would bet that year-in and year-out, Brady (and Manning) are not among the top ten in tight-window attempts. I bet instead they're making "open attempts": the ones with 3+ yards of separation, that on average net +0.46 expected points added per attempt. Intelligent, "easy" throws that they take over and over as they cut you to pieces. Their special skill is being able to find those "easy" throws.

    Hell, that's even revealed on the table. Brees & Russ & Lamar were among the league leaders in EPA / attempt. If they all were zero or negative on these tight window throws, then they gained all those EPA on other throws; and that must have made up the majority of their throws. This has got to be a pretty small sample overall.

    So, ultimately I think the stat doesn't do much to tell us who's effective and who's not. Every QB is earning most of their EPA on non- tight window throws, including Lamar.


    What I think the stat does do is dispel some myths about Lamar's arm talent, or accuracy. It blows up the popular idea of Lamar only completing wide-open passes because of the huge lanes opened in the defense due to the threat of him running. Look at the other players on that list: those guys are in all the top-5 lists, or in the top-arm-talent lists (Stafford).

    It tells us that this is not the weakness in Lamar's game. Wherever the weakness lies, it is elsewhere, not in tight-window throws.





  12. #408
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Fair question. I would like to know the number of attempts.
    They give it as % here: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/p...aggressiveness
    Lamar was at 14.7% (btw, Mahomes was 12.2%)

    You can use that % to the get the raw number of 'tight window throws'

    Neither here nor there the number of tight window throws is going to be affected by scheme and receiver ability.
    The better the scheme and the better the receiver the fewer tight windows throws.....also QB decision making plays a role in the number of tight window throws.
    Last edited by edromeo; 07-15-2020 at 11:04 AM.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





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