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  1. #409
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by tnsmith90 View Post
    Would you be inclined to guess this stat suggests he was really good, really lucky, or both; last season?
    I think luck plays a role in everything.

    But in this case, I think Lamar's success at tight window throws speaks first and foremost to his accuracy.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  2. #410

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by edromeo View Post
    I think luck plays a role in everything.

    But in this case, I think Lamar's success at tight window throws speaks first and foremost to his accuracy.
    Make sense. You & Jim have convinced me to look at this stat as more of an indication of his ability, more-so than an indication of luck that he is unlikely to replicate moving forward. From the eye test, he did seem to be pretty good at sticking into tight spaces with some amazing throws when necessary last season. So, this all kind of jives with that, but I am admittedly biased as an unabashed LJ lover.





  3. #411
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking...denver-broncos

    EPA per play outside red zone: 0.13 (1st)
    The most efficient offense overall in the NFL was also the most efficient red-zone offense in the league. While you might be inclined to point to the run game as the big reason why, the Ravens' rushing attack was actually rather pedestrian inside the red zone, ranking just 17th in EPA per run play inside the 20-yard line. In comparison, they were the only team to generate a positive EPA per run play outside the red zone in 2019 (0.07).

    Rather, their success in the red zone came from the best red-zone passing attack in the NFL. The Ravens averaged 0.53 EPA per pass play inside the 20-yard line, over two-tenths of a point higher than any other offense. Whether it was dropping dimes to Mark Andrews down the seam…

    … or making magic happen as a scrambler — as he did against the New England Patriots below — Lamar Jackson did enough to rank third among all quarterbacks in red-zone PFF grade. Shrinking the field doesn't make it any easier to stop the unique threat that he poses.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  4. #412
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...-pressure-2019

    Performance Under Pressure
    It's important to note that the DVOA listed here is team DVOA on this player's dropbacks, including scrambles, and not individual passing DVOA. Because of this, the average in neutral situations is higher than zero, because there are no handoffs or penalties included.

    Baltimore's Lamar Jackson won the MVP award in large part because of his performance under pressure, where he was just the fifth quarterback on record to post a positive DVOA. Of the four others, two are MVPs and Super Bowl winners (Tom Brady in 2017 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018), while two are journeymen and fringe starters at best (Josh McCown in 2013 and Case Keenum in 2017). You'll note that four of the top five DVOAs under pressure have come in the last three seasons, while only one came from 2010 (when our data starts) to 2016. These are only five of the hundreds of quarterback-seasons we have on record, but they are indicative of a long-term trend: quarterbacks these days are under more pressure than ever before, but they are also playing better under pressure than ever before.

    For the first seven years of our records, the average pressure rate was never any higher than 27.1%, but it has been north of 30.0% in each of three years since. However, the average DVOA under pressure in those first seven years was -75.6%, an average that has climbed to -59.1% in the last three seasons. That's a difference of 16.6% -- about the same as the difference between league-leader Drew Brees and seventh-ranked Russell Wilson on last season's overall leaderboard. The average DVOA on passes without pressure has also risen, but not nearly as much as DVOA with pressure, only about 5.0%.


    Mahomes was in second place behind Jackson; he barely missed having a positive DVOA under pressure for the second straight season. In third place we have Dak Prescott, followed by Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson.
    With the notable exception of Brees, that's a full list of quarterbacks who have typically faced more pressure than average, so it makes sense they would have more practice performing in those conditions. It also raises something of a chicken-or-egg question -- as this new breed of hyper-athletic quarterback takes over the league, are coaches more willing to expose them to pressure, knowing they are more likely to escape? Some of these passers, for sure, bring more pressure on themselves by holding onto the ball in search of big plays downfield. It may be the kind of thing that teams will just have to live with in some circumstances.
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  5. #413

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Death, lockdown and economic collapse are bad enough but if the Corona deprives me of watching a season of Lamar in 2020 then I'll really get pissed off.





  6. Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Hmm, looks like PFF has their own EPA formula that differs from the free one in nflscrapR. I'm coming up with higher numbers: 71 dropbacks, 56.8 EPA, 0.80 EPA per dropback. At a quick glance, a lot of the higher EPA plays were 3rd/4th downs that turned into TDs (so before the play, EP was closer to 3, making a TD worth 3-4 points), or plays late in the half. These plays included:

    • TD to Andrews near 2-min warning vs. Houston (3.75 EPA) [hey, this is gif in the article!]
    • TD to Andrews at end of Q2 @Cleveland (3.74 EPA)
    • final TD to Brown @Cincinnati (3.66 EPA)
    Last edited by organizedchaos21; 08-04-2020 at 05:13 PM.
    Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)

    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)





  7. #415
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by QtR Nevermore View Post
    Death, lockdown and economic collapse are bad enough but if the Corona deprives me of watching a season of Lamar in 2020 then I'll really get pissed off.


    Sometimes you gotta draw the line.





  8. #416
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Lamar Jackson was the only qualified quarterback to finish with a non-negative EPA/attempt on tight window passes last season.

    The top 5 most efficient quarterbacks when targeting receivers with less than 1 yard of separation:
    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  9. #417
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    "Those corners...and those safeties are going to be one-on-one... and we got to make them pay for it," Harbs

    "I think he’d be[Lamar] the greatest player in the history of the game,” Young said





  10. #418
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    I don't trust 'em, but really can't ignore something like this:


    Since 2018, Drew Brees has 13 games with a PFF grade of 80+. Most in the NFL.

    Lamar Jackson had 10 such games in 2019 alone.





  11. #419
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    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Holy shoo! Did anyone catch Lamar's stats after the bye last season??

    Here's Lamar's cumulative stat line in that half-season:


    Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Rate
    129 186 69.35% 1477 7.9 25 1 130.3


    25 TDs to 1 INT?!? That's absurd.
    And mind you, this was not against a bunch of chump defenses. Here's the opponent list:

    v Pats (#1 in defensive DVOA)
    @ Cin
    v Hou
    @ Rams (#9)
    v 49rs (#2)
    @ Buf (#7)
    v Jets (#11)
    @ Browns

    Half the season, 5 games against top-12 defenses. The other three games, Houston & Cleveland were mediocre-low (#22 and #24); only Cincy was outright bad (#30). (I'm probly being too generous to Cleveland.)

    The other components are good. That completion pctg would have ranked 4th in the league (after Brees, Carr, Tannehill). The yards-per-attempt would have been 9th (between Russ Wilson & Drew Brees). But 24 TDs to 1 INT – yeesh.

    How am I only noticing this now??





  12. #420

    Re: Lamar statistical comps

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Holy shoo! Did anyone catch Lamar's stats after the bye last season??

    Here's Lamar's cumulative stat line in that half-season:


    Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Rate
    129 186 69.35% 1477 7.9 25 1 130.3


    25 TDs to 1 INT?!? That's absurd.
    And mind you, this was not against a bunch of chump defenses. Here's the opponent list:

    v Pats (#1 in defensive DVOA)
    @ Cin
    v Hou
    @ Rams (#9)
    v 49rs (#2)
    @ Buf (#7)
    v Jets (#11)
    @ Browns

    Half the season, 5 games against top-12 defenses. The other three games, Houston & Cleveland were mediocre-low (#22 and #24); only Cincy was outright bad (#30). (I'm probly being too generous to Cleveland.)

    The other components are good. That completion pctg would have ranked 4th in the league (after Brees, Carr, Tannehill). The yards-per-attempt would have been 9th (between Russ Wilson & Drew Brees). But 24 TDs to 1 INT – yeesh.

    How am I only noticing this now??
    Holy shoo is right!
    "Did Ed Reed get the respect that he deserves? No he did not...Am I gonna get it? Probably won't. Hopefully he do. If I don't, then, hey, man, I'm alright with me." - Ed Reed





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