To now close this stupid debate and win. Yes sword, it must be done

[JimZipCode]

How pumped were we Ravens fans when he guided the team to a 6 - 1 record and a playoff berth?

Many were bummed, because it meant Harbs wasn't going to get the heave-ho.

[BigPlayReceiver]

Thanks for the replies to the completion %. Some other good takes regarding yardage and then the I don't care as long as we win, and honestly , that's all I care about. But first,

The average completion % to make most happy is 62%. 60% and the National media shuts up a bit.

I'm so sorry to hammer this but lets look at facts...

I looked at Year 1 and Year 2 stats of 23 1st round QBs going back to 2009.
These guys were highly drafted and/or have been franchise QBs.

On completion pct, 14 progressed and 9 regressed from year 1 to year 2.
The average change was +2.1%.

Among the ten QBs that had a Year 1 comp% of 58.3 or less (Lamar's comp% was 58.2%), none of them regressed.
Their average improvement was 4.4% (median, 4.05%)

Geno f-in Smith improved 3.9%.
Blaine f-in Gabbert improved 7.5%.



If Lamar continues to put in the work, he'll be just fine.

[jonboy79]

Just to be clear, my point is that there are three outcomes and all are treasonable to expect and, IMO are at least somewhat. Close in chance to occur.
His completion percentage can go up, down or stay roughly the same.

My personal expectation is that his volume stats drop as a runner and his YPC increases. I also Expect his passing volume to increase pretty substantially, With YP/A, Comp%, TD/INT ratio , and QBR all remaining similar, perhaps a slight uptick.

[JimZipCode]

I also Expect his passing volume to increase pretty substantially, With YP/A, Comp%, TD/INT ratio , and QBR all remaining similar, perhaps a slight uptick.

That's pretty much where I'm at too.

I expect comp% to go up by 3 or 4 ticks. That would make his YPA go up a bit too, in a vacuum; but maybe he'll be throwing more short passes, so I'm not sure YPA will move the same way.

I expect his TD% and INT% to go up, with the increased volume. I'm not sure how that'll net out in terms of TD/INT ratio. Lamar threw 6 & 3 last year. The guys "near" him in passer rating or comp%, had numbers like 21 & 11 or 19 & 14 or 18 & 15. So my hunch is his ratio will decline some from 2:1; not "terribly", still 3:2 or better, but a little.

BPR inspired me to do some work in PFR. I'll post some follow-up stuff.

[BearArms]

I looked at Year 1 and Year 2 stats of 23 1st round QBs going back to 2009.
These guys were highly drafted and/or have been franchise QBs.

On completion pct, 14 progressed and 9 regressed from year 1 to year 2.
The average change was +2.1%.

Among the ten QBs that had a Year 1 comp% of 58.3 or less (Lamar's comp% was 58.2%), none of them regressed.
Their average improvement was 4.4% (median, 4.05%)

Geno f-in Smith improved 3.9%.
Blaine f-in Gabbert improved 7.5%.



If Lamar continues to put in the work, he'll be just fine.

That was great research . Thanks. If some of these receivers pan out, we could finally have a good bunch of weapons.

[srobert96]

Is that true, though?

I haven't seen any data on average depth of target. But anecdotally, Lamar was sure completing a lot of intermediate throws, and a good number of deep throws. His worst mechanical lapses were on short throws, and easy or "routine" throws. That's the whole reason so many people had a kitten over how bad his throws were! Lamar was actually hitting the hard throws. It was the easy ones he was fucking up.

His college tape showed some of that, too.


More than the option stuff he had to process last year? I don't see this. "Processing load" looks to be about the same to me. And that's been a strength of his game anyway.


Ok, that's a valid point. Tampa & Oakland et al, those teams sucked.


I gotcha. You can be a better QB and post worse stats, because you're playing the #1 D on the road or something like that. Like the difference between Joe Flacco's 2008 schedule (3 games against the Steelers) and Matt Ryan's 2008 schedule (more than half his games in a dome).

I dunno, though. I could believe that any 2- or 3-game stretch might have worse-looking stats, because of this factor. But a whole season? You have to bet that a whole slew of factors will net out to zero. It doesn't make sense.

Processing more based on expected changes in offense. The read option is the easiest decision for a QB to process. Based on what one player does you either ha d it off or keep it. Most pass plays last year were simple reads. If they implement RPOs he has is going to have to process a lot more. If he and the team run less he is going to have read defenses and go through his progressions. So he could improve dramatically while his completion% may not go up. He did not throw deep all that often. If they ask him to throw deep more often and they should it will result in lower completion %. Throwing deep will open up things for running game. While it will impact his completions it would make offense more effective. Less people close to the box more room to run and more room for Andrews to work.

[edromeo]

The offense is more likely to be easier for Lamar this year then last year.

-RPOs are easy reads for the QB

-Screen game passes are easy reads for the QB

-Last years passing game was very limited.....which makes reads easier for the QB but it’s also easier for the defense to predict and defend

-I doubt Marty can relate/coach concepts to Lamar like Roman/Culley will......and the verbiage is easier