To now close this stupid debate and win. Yes sword, it must be done

[BearArms]

Thanks for the replies to the completion %. Some other good takes regarding yardage and then the I don't care as long as we win, and honestly , that's all I care about. But first,

The average completion % to make most happy is 62%. 60% and the National media shuts up a bit.

I'm so sorry to hammer this but lets look at facts.
Lamar is working hard to improve. No doubt about it and I challenge anyone to differ.
He has a new OC, a new system geared towards his strengths by said OC who has proven his ability to be successful with his style

He has a couple of really good Tight Ends now with a years experience with 8 games of building repoire. Andrew's looking like a total beast and Hurst healthy.

The receiving core looks like it can be better than last year. We actually have drafted and brought in receivers who can catch the ball. Drops were pitiful last year.

O line is all back including some promising youth. Do you think an entire line with experience together will or will not improve? A new simpler offense too. Finding the right LG?
Does it make common sense to believe Lamar and his line will improve working together? Even by a little helps Lamar

Etc............

With all of this it makes it very easy for me to feel quite confident that Lamar can find 2 to 4 more measly completions out of every 100 attempts. Since his % in his first rookie, 21 yr old raw not supposed to start self he pulled out 58.2%.
Is this making any sense? I wish the media would spell this shit out.
Anyone want to put a dozen jumbo crabs up for next summer if he gets to 60%? Cmon, so many think he can't throw, take the bet with me. Payable next summer or a nice steak dinner instead. Which Lamar doubter will take me up on it. Hell, let's throw in some beer too.

[jonboy79]

Honestly? The counterpoint is that we have one TE that looks like a bust and another that looks “pretty good” and essentially NOTHING at the WR position proven in any way shape or form outside of a middling slot receiver...

The truth is somewhere in between, but it’s realistic to temper your expectations.

[BearArms]

Honestly? The counterpoint is that we have one TE that looks like a bust and another that looks “pretty good” and essentially NOTHING at the WR position proven in any way shape or form outside of a middling slot receiver...

The truth is somewhere in between, but it’s realistic to temper your expectations.

No way Andrew's only looks pretty good and Hurst had a foot problem all year but
Wil he will or won't he, hit 60%? This is exactly what I'm saying, my expectations are that he will make the extra huge 2 to 4 more completions out of every 100 throws which will give him over 60 to 62%.

Cmon JonBoy, yes or no

[JimZipCode]

The truth is somewhere in between, but it’s realistic to temper your expectations.

It's not "realistic" at all, to expect Lamar's completion pct to be below 60%.

"Tempering" our expectations would be saying that Lamar won't ever make the Pro Bowl, will top out at average starter. That he's not the next Deshaun Watson, or even Michael Vick. Let alone the Steve Young HOF pipe dream.

Expecting him to be below 60% would be saying that a hard-working young player with all his advantages (starter's reps, Marty M gone) will NOT improve one little bit. He'll stay exactly the same, make zero progress whatsoever.

That's really silly.

[jonboy79]

It's not "realistic" at all, to expect Lamar's completion pct to be below 60%.

"Tempering" our expectations would be saying that Lamar won't ever make the Pro Bowl, will top out at average starter. That he's not the next Deshaun Watson, or even Michael Vick. Let alone the Steve Young HOF pipe dream.

Expecting him to be below 60% would be saying that a hard-working young player with all his advantages (starter's reps, Marty M gone) will NOT improve one little bit. He'll stay exactly the same, make zero progress whatsoever.

That's really silly.

Yeah except that it’s not. It’s wntirely possible for him to flatline or even regress, particularly in an efficiency stat when talking about a player likely to get a significantly higher volume of opportunities. Defenses wet 8,9,10 men in the box last season because they knew he was only going to pass once or twice a drive...
I’m not betting against it, and I think He will get to 60% this year, but it is absolutely realistic to expect something less than improvement.

[srobert96]

Thanks for the replies to the completion %. Some other good takes regarding yardage and then the I don't care as long as we win, and honestly , that's all I care about. But first,

The average completion % to make most happy is 62%. 60% and the National media shuts up a bit.

I'm so sorry to hammer this but lets look at facts.
Lamar is working hard to improve. No doubt about it and I challenge anyone to differ.
He has a new OC, a new system geared towards his strengths by said OC who has proven his ability to be successful with his style

He has a couple of really good Tight Ends now with a years experience with 8 games of building repoire. Andrew's looking like a total beast and Hurst healthy.

The receiving core looks like it can be better than last year. We actually have drafted and brought in receivers who can catch the ball. Drops were pitiful last year.

O line is all back including some promising youth. Do you think an entire line with experience together will or will not improve? A new simpler offense too. Finding the right LG?
Does it make common sense to believe Lamar and his line will improve working together? Even by a little helps Lamar

Etc............

With all of this it makes it very easy for me to feel quite confident that Lamar can find 2 to 4 more measly completions out of every 100 attempts. Since his % in his first rookie, 21 yr old raw not supposed to start self he pulled out 58.2%.
Is this making any sense? I wish the media would spell this shit out.
Anyone want to put a dozen jumbo crabs up for next summer if he gets to 60%? Cmon, so many think he can't throw, take the bet with me. Payable next summer or a nice steak dinner instead. Which Lamar doubter will take me up on it. Hell, let's throw in some beer too.

You are simplifying it too much. Last year he was running the equivalent of the Navy offense. He was not asked to make difficult throws very often. If they run him less and make the offense more balanced he is going to have to make more difficult throws. More deep throws. He is going to have to process more on each snap. It is not as easy as just adding a few more completions. We also played the worst defenses in the league during his 7 game stretch. Those teams had not seen the offense before and were not all that well prepared. Teams this year knowing that he is starting are going to be better prepared.

I am not saying he wont be able to increase his completion % but it is not as easy as you make it out to be. He could improve as a QB and his completion % may not go up because he may be asked to do a lot more in tougher conditions last year. Completion % is not the end all be all when you have a running Qb.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

Yeah except that it’s not. It’s wntirely possible for him to flatline or even regress, particularly in an efficiency stat when talking about a player likely to get a significantly higher volume of opportunities. Defenses wet 8,9,10 men in the box last season because they knew he was only going to pass once or twice a drive...
I’m not betting against it, and I think He will get to 60% this year, but it is absolutely realistic to expect something less than improvement.

Good post. There's also factors outside of his control that would influence completion percentage, no matter how hard he works.

[Bhcforlife]

I agree with GWNR and jonboy, the unrealistic thing is to expect him to get better just because he works hard and has had a few things happen this offseason. I can do down a long list of *just* Baltimore Ravens who were hard workers but bad players who never got better. Kyle Boller and Breshad Perriman both immediately come to mind. Coaches were changed, systems were changed, they put in the work, they still didn't get better. Putting in the work is a great thing, but it's absolutely not a guarantee of him getting better.

[JimZipCode]

Yeah except that it’s not. It’s wntirely possible for him to flatline or even regress, particularly in an efficiency stat when talking about a player likely to get a significantly higher volume of opportunities.

Possible, yes. Esp when you factor in chance of injury etc. Of course it's possible.

I said "expect". It's not realistic to expect Lamar to fail to crack 60%, when he was so close to it last season.

Your efficiency vs volume point is a good one. Efficiency usually goes down as volume goes up. But it's the only counter-factor. This is still a team that should be very productive running the ball, that ditched two of the worst WRs in the league, that redesigned its offense, and whose QB is getting more "directed" offseason work. All of that would have to net to zero (or negative!), for Lamar not to pick up a couple extra percentage points.

It would be remarkable. And counter to reports we've read from reporters who've been at OTAs / minicamp.

[JimZipCode]

Last year he was running the equivalent of the Navy offense. He was not asked to make difficult throws very often. If they run him less and make the offense more balanced he is going to have to make more difficult throws. More deep throws.

Is that true, though?

I haven't seen any data on average depth of target. But anecdotally, Lamar was sure completing a lot of intermediate throws, and a good number of deep throws. His worst mechanical lapses were on short throws, and easy or "routine" throws. That's the whole reason so many people had a kitten over how bad his throws were! Lamar was actually hitting the hard throws. It was the easy ones he was fucking up.

His college tape showed some of that, too.

He is going to have to process more on each snap.

More than the option stuff he had to process last year? I don't see this. "Processing load" looks to be about the same to me. And that's been a strength of his game anyway.

We also played the worst defenses in the league during his 7 game stretch.

Ok, that's a valid point. Tampa & Oakland et al, those teams sucked.

I am not saying he wont be able to increase his completion % but it is not as easy as you make it out to be. He could improve as a QB and his completion % may not go up because he may be asked to do a lot more in tougher conditions last year.

I gotcha. You can be a better QB and post worse stats, because you're playing the #1 D on the road or something like that. Like the difference between Joe Flacco's 2008 schedule (3 games against the Steelers) and Matt Ryan's 2008 schedule (more than half his games in a dome).

I dunno, though. I could believe that any 2- or 3-game stretch might have worse-looking stats, because of this factor. But a whole season? You have to bet that a whole slew of factors will net out to zero. It doesn't make sense.

[JimZipCode]

I can do down a long list of *just* Baltimore Ravens who were hard workers but bad players who never got better. Kyle Boller and Breshad Perriman both immediately come to mind. Coaches were changed, systems were changed, they put in the work, they still didn't get better.

Really?

1

• In 2003 Kyle Boller completed 51.8% of his throws for a passer rating of 62.4.
• In 2006 he completed 60% of his throws for a rating of 104.

2

• In 2017 Breshad Perriman caught 29% of his targets for 2 yards per target and 77 total yards.
• In 2018 he caught 64% of his targets for 13.6 ypt and 340 total yards.

Hell, even Frank Walker improved his technique and his overall play, while he was here.

You're talking about terrible players, and saying they didn't become good players. And that's true, they didn't become good. But they did become – I dunno, "below average"? They went from terrible to bad? Terrible to "unreliable but capable of making a contribution in a limited role"? Something. Terrible to noticeably less terrible.

Lamar wasn't a terrible player this past season. Not even close.

[BcRaven]

I agree with GWNR and jonboy, the unrealistic thing is to expect him (LJ) to get better just because he works hard and has had a few things happen this offseason. I can do down a long list of *just* Baltimore Ravens who were hard workers but bad players who never got better. Kyle Boller and Breshad Perriman both immediately come to mind. Coaches were changed, systems were changed, they put in the work, they still didn't get better. Putting in the work is a great thing, but it's absolutely not a guarantee of him getting better.

I disagree. LJ, a 21 year old rookie, had 8 NFL games under his belt and IMO acquitted himself admirably. How pumped were we Ravens fans when he guided the team to a 6 - 1 record and a playoff berth? His personality seems to be stable enough to take to good coaching. In addition both Ozzie and DeCosta added offensive support in 2018/19 (Hurst, Andrews, O. Brown, Bozeman, Hollywood, Boykin, Hill and Powers. That's two TEs, two WRs, three Olinemen, and a RB to grow with. If I were a betting man I'd wager that LJ does improve with time and experience... Bc