Next years 1st

[BcRaven]

I think we are just fine at LB. Peanut is a highlight reel. Give him a year with a full offseason and we will have 1 less hole on our team to worry about.

I'm not sure. I'd like a veteran ILB on the squad. Although I like him, the jury is still out on Kenny Young, and Chris Board and Alvin Jones are both ?s... Bc

[Ortizer]

I think we are just fine at LB. Peanut is a highlight reel. Give him a year with a full offseason and we will have 1 less hole on our team to worry about.

This is his third full off-season isn't it?

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk

[GOTA]

This is his third full off-season isn't it?

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk

Yup. It's year 4 for Peanut

[Ed and Ray]

That’s only looking at one half of the equation. Sure, their pass game improved. And Cooper looks like one of the top 20 receivers in the game. If they had just signed him as a FA, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

But we are talking about what they gave up, which was a late first round pick. That could have been Ray Lewis or Ed Reed. Would you give up Ray Lewis or Ed Reed for a couple years of top 20 receiver production?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

It was definitely worth the 1st. IMO, Cooper is Top 10 in the league and the offense as far as the passing game looked like night and day.

[HotInHere]

It was definitely worth the 1st. IMO, Cooper is Top 10 in the league and the offense as far as the passing game looked like night and day.

What if that first would have been a Hall of Famer? Would a few years of top-10 receiver be worth a career Hall of Famer? What if it just would have been a receiver who ends up being as good as Cooper? But you have him much more cheaply, he’s younger, and you can control him longer?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[GOTA]

What if that first would have been a Hall of Famer? Would a few years of top-10 receiver be worth a career Hall of Famer? What if it just would have been a receiver who ends up being as good as Cooper? But you have him much more cheaply, he’s younger, and you can control him longer?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

If you want to use that argument you should never trade any pick no matter what round.

[The Excellector]

If you want to use that argument you should never trade any pick no matter what round.

Well put.

[HotInHere]

If you want to use that argument you should never trade any pick no matter what round.

It’s about odds. What are the chances of a 6th round pick vs a first round pick being a Hall of Famer? What are the chances of them becoming a solid everyday performer?

Should you trade a sixth rounder for Aaron Donald? Shit yeah. A third rounder for Zeke Elliott. Maybe, maybe not. Remember, you only get him through 2020 and then you have to pay him, if you can afford him. But yeah, he’s probably worth a third.

When you start talking about Amari Cooper for a first, you’re probably talking about a 1-in-20 chance you’re passing up a Hall of Famer. Probably a 1-in-5 chance you’re passing up a Pro Bowler. Better than 50% chance you’re passing up 5 years of a cheap, controllable, starting-caliber NFL player. You’re passing that up for a guy you only have for a year and a half before he becomes a FA. For a guy who makes you better, but he ain’t no Julio Jones. For a guy who is a top-20, top-15, MAYBE top-10 receiver. But he’s not keeping DCs up at night.

If he brings you a Super Bowl, then yeah, it’s worth it. If not, you probably should have taken your first round lottery ticket given the pretty good odds it will pay off in a decent way.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[WNCRavensFan]

Since the Seattle/Tampa Bay expansion of 1976, 54 of the 88 players in the Pro Football Hall of Fame were drafted in the first round.

1 Lee Roy Selmon, Earl Campbell, John Elway, Steve Young*, Troy Aikman, Orlando Pace
2 Tony Dorsett, Lawrence Taylor, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk
3 Anthony Munoz, Gary Zimmerman*, Barry Sanders, Cortez Kennedy
4 Dan Hampton, Kenny Easley, Reggie White*, Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas, Jonathan Ogden
5 Mike Haynes, Deion Sanders, Junior Seau, LaDanian Tomlinson
6 James Lofton, Tim Brown, Walter Jones
7 Champ Bailey
8 Art Monk, Ronnie Lott, Mike Munchak, Willie Roaf
9 Bruce Matthews, Brian Urlacher
10 Marcus Allen, Rod Woodson, Jerome Bettis
11 Michael Irvin
12 Warren Sapp
13 Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez
14 Jim Kelly
16 Jim Rice
17 Emmitt Smith
19 Randall McDaniel, Marvin Harrison
21 Randy Moss
23 Ozzie Newsome, Ty Law
24 Ed Reed
26 Ray Lewis
27 Dan Marino
28 Darrell Green, Derrick Brooks

*1984 supplemental pick

If we want to further break this down:
Picks 1-5) 24
Picks 6-10) 13
Picks 11-20) 9
Picks 21+) 8

Ed Reed is from the most recent draft represented (2002). So, from 1976-2002, that's 27 drafts.

24 of the 135 top five picks are HOFers (18%)
37 of the 270 top ten picks are HOFers (14%)
54 of the roughly 830 first round picks are HOFers (about 6.5%)

Those numbers are expected to go up as more eventual HOFers who wait a while are let in.

Just thought I'd provide some stats for the discussion.

[srobert96]

It’s about odds. What are the chances of a 6th round pick vs a first round pick being a Hall of Famer? What are the chances of them becoming a solid everyday performer?

Should you trade a sixth rounder for Aaron Donald? Shit yeah. A third rounder for Zeke Elliott. Maybe, maybe not. Remember, you only get him through 2020 and then you have to pay him, if you can afford him. But yeah, he’s probably worth a third.

When you start talking about Amari Cooper for a first, you’re probably talking about a 1-in-20 chance you’re passing up a Hall of Famer. Probably a 1-in-5 chance you’re passing up a Pro Bowler. Better than 50% chance you’re passing up 5 years of a cheap, controllable, starting-caliber NFL player. You’re passing that up for a guy you only have for a year and a half before he becomes a FA. For a guy who makes you better, but he ain’t no Julio Jones. For a guy who is a top-20, top-15, MAYBE top-10 receiver. But he’s not keeping DCs up at night.

If he brings you a Super Bowl, then yeah, it’s worth it. If not, you probably should have taken your first round lottery ticket given the pretty good odds it will pay off in a decent way.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Couple of things: Chance of Ravens finding a starting wr in the first rounder is way lower than 50%. We have whiffed on all 3 the franchise has drafted to date. WRs in general are hard to project in the NFL. If you really need a wr giving up a 1st rounder who is only 24 and has been to the pro bowl 3 out of his first 4 years doesn't seem crazy. I wouldn't do it in the current offense but I think it was a good move for the Cowboys.

The Ravens in making the trade would be in compete now mode which means the chance of them drafting in the top 10 is very very low. The chance of drafting a HOF after the first 10 picks drops significantly.

In general trading a 1st rounder and giving a player a big contract is less than ideal. In situations where you have a gaping hole at wr position and it is having a significant impact on the offense I can see doing it. With the Ravens current team and run heavy offense I would not do it. Ravens are going to have a bunch of holes next year. Oline, Dline, OLB and potentially CB. Ravens won't be 1 wr away if those holes are not filled.

[Ortizer]

Since the Seattle/Tampa Bay expansion of 1976, 54 of the 88 players in the Pro Football Hall of Fame were drafted in the first round.

1 Lee Roy Selmon, Earl Campbell, John Elway, Steve Young*, Troy Aikman, Orlando Pace
2 Tony Dorsett, Lawrence Taylor, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Faulk
3 Anthony Munoz, Gary Zimmerman*, Barry Sanders, Cortez Kennedy
4 Dan Hampton, Kenny Easley, Reggie White*, Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas, Jonathan Ogden
5 Mike Haynes, Deion Sanders, Junior Seau, LaDanian Tomlinson
6 James Lofton, Tim Brown, Walter Jones
7 Champ Bailey
8 Art Monk, Ronnie Lott, Mike Munchak, Willie Roaf
9 Bruce Matthews, Brian Urlacher
10 Marcus Allen, Rod Woodson, Jerome Bettis
11 Michael Irvin
12 Warren Sapp
13 Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez
14 Jim Kelly
16 Jim Rice
17 Emmitt Smith
19 Randall McDaniel, Marvin Harrison
21 Randy Moss
23 Ozzie Newsome, Ty Law
24 Ed Reed
26 Ray Lewis
27 Dan Marino
28 Darrell Green, Derrick Brooks

*1984 supplemental pick

If we want to further break this down:
Picks 1-5) 24
Picks 6-10) 13
Picks 11-20) 9
Picks 21+) 8

Ed Reed is from the most recent draft represented (2002). So, from 1976-2002, that's 27 drafts.

24 of the 135 top five picks are HOFers (18%)
37 of the 270 top ten picks are HOFers (14%)
54 of the roughly 830 first round picks are HOFers (about 6.5%)

Those numbers are expected to go up as more eventual HOFers who wait a while are let in.

Just thought I'd provide some stats for the discussion.

1984 was a good year to play the supplemental draft apparently

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk

[GOTA]

1984 was a good year to play the supplemental draft apparently

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk

That was because of the USFL. You had a lot of great prospects who took the money to play there. They all hit the supplemental draft and teams were smart enough to use picks on them.