Contrarian View - Ravens underestimated the Safety Market, and it backfired

[ClericBlackDave]

I do think they misread the safety market badly. I absolutely think the intention when they released Weddle was to try to sign someone, likely Mathieu given reports that came out shortly after the cut, for a comparable price. After the first couple of hours of tampering period, it was obvious that wasn't going to happen. Should we be concerned that they didn't read the market right? I don't know. It's of some very minor concern to me but nothing that makes me think lesser of EDC or the rest of the FO. FA is always a crapshoot and crazy at the start, this year seemed excessively so to me.

Bottom line is we have a huge upgrade at safety vs. the 2018 version of Eric Weddle physically. We paid more, but we got a significantly better player for it. I'm okay with that, regardless of how we got here.

the problem to me is roster construction. OK, so yes Earl might be better than Weddle when healthy, enough to justify the overpay. But you have SO MANY NEEDS. And remember - cap space rolls over.


i was hoping maybe we were done nonsensically spending to the cap every year to be 8-8, and we MIGHT actually take our time building this roster with an eye towards getting younger and sustainability. NOPE. Same old Ravens.

At first I was annoyed they retained Harbs. Now I think the bigger mistake might have been EDC. Thats a hot take, but yeah. This team is managing itself the same way it didn't from 2013 to 2018. And I don't think thats a good thing.

[Waywatcher]

the problem to me is roster construction. OK, so yes Earl might be better than Weddle when healthy, enough to justify the overpay. But you have SO MANY NEEDS. And remember - cap space rolls over.


i was hoping maybe we were done nonsensically spending to the cap every year to be 8-8, and we MIGHT actually take our time building this roster with an eye towards getting younger and sustainability. NOPE. Same old Ravens.

At first I was annoyed they retained Harbs. Now I think the bigger mistake might have been EDC. Thats a hot take, but yeah. This team is managing itself the same way it didn't from 2013 to 2018. And I don't think thats a good thing.

Yeah, I think this take isn't just "hot" but intellectually disingenuous. If you think this year is "the same old Ravens," then I'm not sure there's any debating with you in good faith. The Tavon Young signing alone is a good sign (and the fact that the team is already thinking forward to resigning Stanley and Humphrey). If you doubt EDC is eyeing this period of Lamar's rookie contract as an opportunity for the organization to turn the page, then I doubt there'll be any convincing you.

[ClericBlackDave]

"Mark my words ... the Ravens will send both Jefferson and Thomas as Pro-Bowlers this year."

No. Jefferson was an overpay back then out of need. Its more likely that Thomas is hurt again and Jeffereson ends up out of positions than it is both guys form this dynamic safety duo. I think you're sipping too much purple kool-aid.

[edromeo]

Huh? They got the best S in the league for less then Honey Badger and Landon Collins

[NjRavensFan]

I don’t think we can consider getting Thomas on this contract a “backfire” no matter the context. He is a HOFer and will be the new heartbeat of our defense, hopefully for the next half decade.

I would rather have him than anyone else in this FA class. The fact that his market didn’t materialize is strange but it’s to our benefit. He’s making slightly less than Collins and Mathieu, is a much better player than either, a much better fit for our team, and, while three years older than them, isn’t exactly old.

[stevez51]

All teams were caught off guard by the safety salaries. Once Collins got overpaid by the Skins all the other teams knew they had to go high.

[Worthy]

No. Jefferson was an overpay back then out of need. Its more likely that Thomas is hurt again and Jeffereson ends up out of positions than it is both guys form this dynamic safety duo. I think you're sipping too much purple kool-aid.

Jefferson is a solid box safety ... he was 2nd on the team in tackles. His exposure is in coverage. But you'll see how the defense changes drastically when the Ravens employ a single deep saftey look and bring Jefferson closely to the line of scrimage.

[Waywatcher]

All teams were caught off guard by the safety salaries. Once Collins got overpaid by the Skins all the other teams knew they had to go high.

Yep. Same with the ILB market after the Kwon Alexander insanity.

But, yeah, the Ravens' crummy Front Office somehow couldn't predict C.J.-freakin'-Mosley would draw $17M AAV. Buncha losers.

[justifythegame]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...?cid=rotoworld

"arl Thomas was prepared, with regrets, to accept a one-year guaranteed contract worth $12 million, with $1 million in likely-to-be-earned incentives, with an undisclosed team Wednesday morning. That team, I am told, was sure it had Thomas, whose market had never materialized the way safety markets developed for Landon Collins, Tyrann Mathieu and Adrian Amos. Then the Ravens swooped in, knowing they had to overpay to break up the other deal. "


And this is why its hard for me to get excited about this team. And about DeCosta.


Look, when they cut Weddle all reports were that this was a DEEP safety market and they probably thought they'd get a better guy than Weddle on a bargain. Turns out, the 2-year deal the Rams got for Weddle probably WAS the bargain of the safety market. If the Ravens didn't offer a pay cut or stay in contact with weddle, I view that as a mistake. Is he the same player as his prime, or even when he got here? NO, emphatically.

Would i have taken him, during what is probably a rebuild/reload/retool for veteran leadership and a sound mind and actually consistent health for 2-year 9 million versus Earl Thomas for the BIG BUCKS we shelled out because we realized we messed up? yes, I would.


My biggest pet peeve with this is, out of loyalty or whatever, cutting Weddle early rather than being somewhat more pragmatic and cutting him later after you have an agreement in principle with someone else, OR you see the market throw around funny money to Mathieu, etc. and you realize that you either keep weddle as-is or you use your leverage and cut him late, but offer a 2 year deal later with incentives.


It just seems to me that we botched it pretty bad, even if Earl Thomas ends up playing great. We didn't control the situation, we reacted to a market we were surprised by.


Turns out the league remembered safeties were important again, and all these guys are getting paid!

I agree.

To add to this, i would like to say the signing of a 30 year old RB who doesnt complement the current backs is another desperate signing. It should be compared to the michael huff, marcus spears, chris canty signing or the ryan grant signing last year. They are adding a player just for the sake of allocating some free cap space without the appearance that they got schooled in FA. I dont want to compare earl thomas to these signings because he may turn out to be a good signing, but based on his FA interest he was a desperate signing.

And i totally agree with the weddle point. If at worse case you kept him at his current salary, you still had the cap room to do it while drafting a safety. At worse you overpay just 1 year as opposed to earl thomas for several. You could hold onto weddle, try to get earl on a 1 year deal, then cut weddle too. You could test thomas for a year and resign for the same salary if he turns out to be good.

I like your word, arrogance. Thats whats causing mismanagement. Edc is just continuing the trend, and maybe he even started the trend when he got promoted.

[NjRavensFan]

This isn’t an overpay. He is making less than worse players at the same position. Don’t get caught up in a single phrase in a Peter King article lol.

This thread might be even more ridiculous than the “trade for Rosen” one because this dude is actually trying to frame himself as rational.

[Shrubbs]

Hall of Famer in his prime, didn't set the market. Mosley was an overpay, it was so much more than quality LBs cost in this league. What we paid Earl Thomas is what quality Safeties are paid these days. It was market price.

[Waywatcher]

My favorite part of this thread is how random schmoes off the street are second-guessing one of the most successful franchises in the NFL and have the gall to label them arrogant.

It's times like this when I wish I had the sarcastic Jennifer Lawrence "Okay" meme bookmarked.