Three game losing streaks

[The Excellector]

I was reading up on previous records and found this interesting. The Ravens have lost three consecutive games in not one, not two, not three, but now FOUR seasons in which they eventually made the playoffs, including the 2012 season.

[Ravenblue]

Yeah I didn't buy that our season was over after 3 defeats to 3 (at the time at least) very good teams, especially given that we should've tied with the best of them at the very least, and played another with an injured QB.

The schedule after that tough run was pretty easy, bar KC and SD, given Cinci's D were dropping like flies.

[guymf4]

Ready for so some fun math? In most playoff season's we probably get 9 or 10 wins. Occasionally 12, but it's usually 9 or 10. Let's say the odds of winning a game in those seasons was 60 percent, or predicted wins of 9.6 season. That means in each game we were 40 percent likely to lose from week to week. The odds of losing 3 in a row is (0.40)^3 = 6.4% in any given 3 game stretch. In each season, there are 14 unique 3 game sets ( ie weeks 1-3, 2-4...14-16). Conversely, the odds of not losing 3 in a row is 93.6% so to not lose any of the 14 sets is (0.936)^14 = 0.396. So 40 percent of the time we will not have 3 losses in a row

In other words, there's about a 60 percent chance there will be 3 games lost in a row during the season even when we have a playoff caliber win record.

There might be a way to solve this with bayes law but I forget that at the moment.

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[guymf4]

But statistics be damned, I'd rather blame it on the coaches for being unprepared and not changing the plays from week to week, even after they've obviously figured out our playcalling.

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