Week 12 playoff probability

**Paintballguy** · 11-21-2018, 04:33 PM

This game for the ravens is a 30% swing in odds for making the playoffs which is the most in the afc.

https://twitter.com/bburkeespn/statu...723645443?s=21

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**Mista T** · 11-21-2018, 05:43 PM

Trying to under the table. Does this mean that, with a win this Sunday, the Ravens chances of making the playoffs would rise by 30%? Or to 30%? Or from what? To what?

**organizedchaos21** · 11-21-2018, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by Mista T

Trying to under the table. Does this mean that, with a win this Sunday, the Ravens chances of making the playoffs would rise by 30%? Or to 30%? Or from what? To what?

I'll take a stab. You got it right with your first guess. With a win, the Ravens chance of making the playoff rises to ~45%. With a loss, that chance drops to ~15%. So the Ravens-Raiders game has 30% of "leverage" on the Ravens playoff chances.

What I'm really curious about is the effect of the Bengals-Browns game on the Ravens playoff chances.

**Paintballguy** · 11-21-2018, 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by organizedchaos21

I'll take a stab. You got it right with your first guess. With a win, the Ravens chance of making the playoff rises to ~45%. With a loss, that chance drops to ~15%. So the Ravens-Raiders game has 30% of "leverage" on the Ravens playoff chances.

What I'm really curious about is the effect of the Bengals-Browns game on the Ravens playoff chances.

Correct it’s a 30% swing either way.

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**Filmstudy** · 11-21-2018, 06:02 PM

Originally Posted by organizedchaos21

I'll take a stab. You got it right with your first guess. With a win, the Ravens chance of making the playoff rises to ~45%. With a loss, that chance drops to ~15%. So the Ravens-Raiders game has 30% of "leverage" on the Ravens playoff chances.

What I'm really curious about is the effect of the Bengals-Browns game on the Ravens playoff chances.

The Bengals leverage for the Bengals Browns game is 17%. Most of that 17% has to come directly out of the Ravens hide.

**organizedchaos21** · 11-21-2018, 06:09 PM

Looks like they currently have the Ravens with a 41.2% chance to make the playoffs. So a win doesn't help very much (chance improves ~4%) but a loss hurts quite a bit (chance drops ~26%).

edit: Ah, true!

Originally Posted by Filmstudy

The Bengals leverage for the Bengals Browns game is 17%. Most of that 17% has to come directly out of the Ravens hide.