Perspective and expectations

[Shas]

Some random observations for the bye week that all relate to perspective on the current record, fan expectations, and how quickly expectations can change.

Harbaugh's job. Do you remember who Steve Bisciotti wanted to hire before he settled on hiring John Harbaugh? Jason Garrett. Looks like this could possibly be the end of the line for both coaches. What do you think Bisciotti thinks of Garrett now? What odds would Vegas give on the Cowboys and Ravens "swapping" coaches after this season? How would you feel about that?

Bad Browns. As bad as the Cleveland Browns have been since coming back into the league, it could be worse. They could be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Yeah, you heard me right.

The Browns only have two winning seasons in the twenty since '99, but when you talk about historically bad, you have to mention the Steelers. In their first 40 years of existence the Steelers only had seven winning seasons (not counting a couple war years when they were combined with Eagles and Cardinals teams). That should give you a nice retort when a Steelers fan starts bragging about SuperBowls they won in the seventies...and it should give Browns fans reason for hope.

Quarterback Unpredictability. A ton of Ravens fans are done with Joe Flacco, and are ready to see Lamar Jackson start games. There's an old NFL adage that says, "the most popular guy on every football team is the backup quarterback." I'm not defending Flacco. But I will say is that you can't trust spurts of good, or bad, quarterback play when judging quarterbacks. Derek Carr seemed destined for greatness until a new, QB-guru head coach rolled into town. Fitzmagic quickly became Fitztragic. Sam Darnold had a great start, aside from his first-ever NFL pass being a pick-six, and has crashed back to earth.

By the way, is it a bad omen to have your first NFL pass intercepted for a touchdown, like Darnold did? Well, the last player before him was Jamis Winston in '15. Uh-oh. Before that? The Atlanta Falcons' Brett Favre's first NFL toss was a pick-six, too. Hmm--what to make of that? (Bonus fact: Favre went 0-4 in Atlanta, and was traded to Green Bay despite being the second overall pick. His first completion in the NFL was...to himself) Before that, Johnny Unitas' first NFL pass was a pick-six. You can look it up. Like I said, unpredictable position.

Quality of Opponent. If the Ravens have any hope of clawing back into the playoffs, they may have to beat at least one quality QB still on the schedule (Ryan, Mahommes, Rivers). That gaunlet is well-publicized.

Reason for hope? As disappointing as the defense has been in their losses, they've still held a couple of potent offenses well below their scoring averages (Pitt & NO).

While the Ravens won't shut down some of the better offenses still left on the schedule, the key for this team will be for the offense to take advantage of some weaker defenses still left ahead of them. Here are the passer ratings-against and total yards-per-game-allowed for the teams still on the schedule:

Cincinatti PR: 21st YPG: 32nd
Oakland PR: 31st YPG: 27th
Atlanta PR: 28th YPG: 28th
Kansas City PR: 12th YPG: 31st
Tampa Bay PR: 32 YPG: 29th
Chargers PR: 9th YPG: 19th
Cleveland PR: 2nd YPG: YPG: 30th

(more perspective: Ravens defense is still #3 in PR-against, and #1 in YPG-against).

I see a real opportunity to change people's minds about Flacco and this offense, particularly if we can get to an offensive line consisting of Stanley-Hurst-Skura-Yanda-Brown, which I think has been their best five all along. And maybe the other Hurst figures things out and Ty Montgomery contributes.

If that happens...and they can keep some potent offenses in check...then I can imagine we'll be back to over-estimating how good this team really is. ;) .

If not, then Flacco and Harbs really will deserve to go.

So let's everyone take a breath this bye week, enjoy the games, and tell ourselves, things can change quickly in this league.

It's all a matter of perspective and expectations.

[blah3]

I see a real opportunity to change people's minds about Flacco and this offense, particularly if we can get to an offensive line consisting of Stanley-Hurst-Skura-Yanda-Brown, which I think has been their best five all along. And maybe the other Hurst figures things out and Ty Montgomery contributes.
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So basically the line almost everyone on the board thought was best option at the beginning of the season.

[PeterB58]

I see a real opportunity to change people's minds about Flacco and this offense, particularly if we can get to an offensive line consisting of Stanley-Hurst-Skura-Yanda-Brown, which I think has been their best five all along. And maybe the other Hurst figures things out and Ty Montgomery contributes.

If that happens...and they can keep some potent offenses in check...then I can imagine we'll be back to over-estimating how good this team really is. ;) .

If not, then Flacco and Harbs really will deserve to go.

So let's everyone take a breath this bye week, enjoy the games, and tell ourselves, things can change quickly in this league.

It's all a matter of perspective and expectations.

This is good stuff...but I will comment on the above.

I think the problems on offense go deeper that just who is playing on the offensive line. I think Flacco has become more inconsistent over the years. His inability or unwillingness to read a defense and take what it gives him (see LJ being wide open on Sunday) is really hurting the offense. I think Morningwhig is a horrible coordinator.

Could the team run off some wins? Yes they "could", but that would mean that the playoff team everyone (fans and players alike) were talking about earlier this season needs to show-up. They have run out of time.

[Shas]

I think the problems on offense go deeper that just who is playing on the offensive line. I think Flacco has become more inconsistent over the years. His inability or unwillingness to read a defense and take what it gives him (see LJ being wide open on Sunday) is really hurting the offense.

My view is that the offensive line and Flacco's inconsistency are intertwined.

When the line was intact, at full strength at the beginning of the season, Flacco played very well. He took five and seven step drops, surveyed the whole field, and stepped into good throws.

That's changed. My belief is that he is very easily affected or distracted by changes along the offensive line. I see a quarterback whose timing is rushed and who doesn't look comfortable.

My guess is that Mornhenwig has been spending recent weeks hyper-focused on shoring up potential problems along the line, becoming more conservative in game planning, and this gets into Flacco's head. A better QB would be able to roll with it, but Joe seems to thrive in ideal conditions and easily suffer in less.

I don't know if missing Jackson on the right sideline is a fair criticism. It truly was his fifth read (The immediately took away his first read, Crabtree, and that left Snead and Brown as 2 and 3 on the left side of the field. Andrews, to the right side, was 4, and Jackson was 5.

It's possible that Flacco rushed/forced the throw and perhaps earlier in the season a more comfortable Flacco would have "extended the play" (his words) by looking to his right.

So the way I see it is that a healthy line is critical not so much for improved line play as much as improved Joe confidence.

Think back to Joe suddenly going on a hot run in the 2012 season. What sparked it? It happened when Bryant McKinnie finally started playing up to his potential, with effort, and they were able to move the rookie, Osemele, to LG and put Oher at RT. Once that jelled, Joe took off. I think it's possible to see it again if they move the RT, Hurst, to LG, because they were able to get the T, Brown, to play up to his potential.