Filmstudy questions

**BcRaven** · 10-15-2018, 02:19 PM

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

I suspect this doesn't even need to be asked, because you were going to highlight it anyway:

Late in the game the Ravens showed James Hurst at LG and Zeus Deuce at RT.
How did Brown look? Can we draw any conclusion about how "ready" his pass-blocking is, his viability as the starting RT?

Good question, Jimmy. I'd add : how did Bozeman look @ LG?
Thanks... Bc

**Iamjacks** · 10-15-2018, 02:22 PM

Ken usually does three shows each week this season. One defense, one offense and one with a guest that covers the upcoming team.

Ken and Josh also asked for constructive feedback and suggestions. I really don't have any criticism. I love all of the podcasts and would listen to one each day of the week.

One wild but improbable suggestion that seems like it would be very interesting is to do a follow up podcast with the person who covers team we just played that you did the intro to the team with. I think it could be very interesting to hear how the analysis on both sides compares. It would be tough on the losing team, but it seems like it could be super interesting and I don't think anyone else is doing anything like it. It seems like it could be really unique and innovative.

I know that it would be a pipedream for this but that would be my only suggestion.

Keep up the great work Ken and Josh! Get those t-shirts up for sale!

**Iamjacks** · 10-15-2018, 05:52 PM

One more thing, can you please tell the guest this week thank you from the listeners and make a general statement that the listeners have voiced their thoughts that they really appreciate the opportunity listen to knowledgeable opposing team analysts. It's a really neat experience you are delivering.

**RavensPPark** · 10-15-2018, 11:30 PM

Hi Ken, thanks for all of your posts and thanks for taking questions.

My question is can you please explain the math behind your grades? E.g., when you say something like "84 plays, 70 blocks, 7 missed, ½ penetration, 4 pressures, 1.67 (1 + 2/3) QH, 56 points (.67 per play). That’s a C after adjustment." could you please explain how you calculate this? I've tried to reverse-engineer your formula but have not been able.

TIA:

**BearArms** · 10-15-2018, 11:39 PM

Originally Posted by RavensPPark

Hi Ken, thanks for all of your posts and thanks for taking questions.

My question is can you please explain the math behind your grades? E.g., when you say something like "84 plays, 70 blocks, 7 missed, ½ penetration, 4 pressures, 1.67 (1 + 2/3) QH, 56 points (.67 per play). That’s a C after adjustment." could you please explain how you calculate this? I've tried to reverse-engineer your formula but have not been able.

TIA:

It all becomes clear once you can see the bottom of the bottle!😬😈😉

**Filmstudy** · 10-16-2018, 12:07 AM

Originally Posted by RavensPPark

Hi Ken, thanks for all of your posts and thanks for taking questions.

My question is can you please explain the math behind your grades? E.g., when you say something like "84 plays, 70 blocks, 7 missed, ½ penetration, 4 pressures, 1.67 (1 + 2/3) QH, 56 points (.67 per play). That’s a C after adjustment." could you please explain how you calculate this? I've tried to reverse-engineer your formula but have not been able.

TIA:

--Each play, the lineman gets 1 point for a successful block. If you make every block, your score is 1.00, which is perfect.
--A missed block is one with a 0 score. I sometimes will break down missed blocks into the worse ones where a lineman is beaten and in danger of giving up a negative event and the not-so-bad ones where the player is unable to make a block, often in L2 or on the back side of a run play.
--Allowing a penetration which leads to a loss on a run play is a -2 score, but that can be shared if multiple players are responsible. At the worst -2 points will be awarded for a run TFL and it can be less if other factors that are not the responsibility of a lineman are involved.
--Similarly, each pressure is a -2 and can be shared.
--Each QH is -3 and can be shared
--Each sack is -6 and can be shared
--Each penalty is -3 points for each 5 yards. That seems harsh when compared to a sack, but penalties have an option value for the defense that can make them more valuable (you can think of a holding call a a free play for the defense the way an offsides penalty is for the offense). Penalties can't be shared unless something truly unusual happens like 2 players false starting simultaneously.
--Total points are then divided by total plays to get the raw score (.67 per play in the example above).
--I then adjust up to .10 for the amount above the replacement level of the opponent, highlight blocks, positive and negative events not included in the scoring system (like a bad snap from center or a fumble recovery)
--The adjusted score is then compared to the scale for the players position which is most forgiving at tackle and least forgiving at center because of the incremental pass rush responsibilities on the outside.

In the example you gave, which might be Hurst, the total points were calculated as (70 - .5 X 2 - 8 X 2 - 1.67 X 3) = points on blocks - charges for penetration - charges for pressures - charges for QHs = 56.
Raw score = 56/84 = .67
I don't recall the adjustment in this case, but let's say it was .05, that would make the adjusted score .72, which I then compare to the grading scale at tackle, for which .72 is a C.

People have complained about the limited ability a player has to "earn back" for their pass blocking failures, but primarily the system measures frequency and severity of such failures. That same person understands how you career batting average can never get back to 1.000 once you've made an out. The old PFF method of balancing +/- had the elegance that 0 should have be an average score, but it had significant flaws:

1. Scoring didn't usually have an average of 0 league wide, so they had to scale the score to a 100 point system.
2. More significantly, accumulating small debits and credits gives the opportunity to pyramid the error from a fundamental flaw in grading mechanics. I could have the same problem with my system in terms of overweights/underweights for events, but it is transparent.
3. PFF does not credit or charge for partial pass rush events (meaning they can only have a 1 or a 0 for any event on any play), a conversation I've had with Neil Hornsby and others at PFF many times. They did linear regression this offseason to improve the valuation of individual pass rush events (based on expected points), but they still have big inaccuracies in their counts. Obviously distributing portions of an event involves subjectivity, but so does determining where a big charge should go when it's between 2 players.

**Iamjacks** · 10-16-2018, 10:06 AM

Question for the Saints analyst

Are the Saints really that good in run defense or is the statistic an artifact of game flow (or inflated due to opponents play calling) since they have been in so many shootouts this year?

Thank you for coming onto the filmstudy podcast.

**Iamjacks** · 10-16-2018, 10:52 AM

Ken I just wanted to say thank you again for all the great work you do. I'm sorry I will get back to twitter ASAP but I am still locked out due to my app sending to many update requests. I am trying to work it out with Twitter now.

**Iamjacks** · 10-16-2018, 10:56 AM

Also everyone consider going to birdlandsports.com and buying a Filmstudy T-shirt

Josh said on the podcast today that they are up for sale now.

Also if you haven't yet, you can really help out Ken by going to iTunes and all your favorite podcast services and giving them 5 star ratings. I would love to see them pick up some sponsors so they can keep building this exceptional product.

Keep going guys! Can't wait for the Saints preview tonight!