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Thread: Shotgun Blues?

  1. #13

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by arnie_uk View Post
    The yards per play stats on the offense as a whole seems awful.

    Any way of taking out the browns game to see what we were before that? 5 games in and one awful game can seriously disrupt the figures.

    We seemed like a top 5 10 offense coming in to sunday, would be interesting to see where we rank in ypp if we take out our browns game
    would the bills game pump up the numbers?





  2. #14
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    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongBaldy View Post
    would the bills game pump up the numbers?
    The bills have the 6th ranked defense according to profootball reference. Why would that game pump numbers up?





  3. #15

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongBaldy View Post
    would the bills game pump up the numbers?
    I'll break it down game-by-game when I have a chance, but uh, there's not much further down to go.
    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit

    Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, then Spotrac)





  4. #16

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by arnie_uk View Post
    The bills have the 6th ranked defense according to profootball reference. Why would that game pump numbers up?
    bc ravens scored almsot 50 points that game





  5. #17
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    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongBaldy View Post
    bc ravens scored almsot 50 points that game
    Thats my point.

    We played so well for 4 games yet still have a bottom 3rd offense after the browns game. I wanted to see was it the browns game that caused that or are we still not an efficient offense.





  6. #18

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by arnie_uk View Post
    Thats my point.

    We played so well for 4 games yet still have a bottom 3rd offense after the browns game. I wanted to see was it the browns game that caused that or are we still not an efficient offense.
    (Still haven't done the work, but) I'm comfortable saying we are not an efficient offense. Even ignoring the league-wide offensive explosion of 2018, I don't think this offense would have been considered efficient in 2017. I don't think we can blame sample size or outliers here. They are who they are.

    (Side note: the code I need to do this analysis is stuck on a different PC, so unless I rewrite all of the code, the analysis will have to wait until at least tomorrow. I could then update it with the wonderful totals from this afternoon's game though).
    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit

    Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, then Spotrac)





  7. #19

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    (Still haven't done the work, but) I'm comfortable saying we are not an efficient offense. Even ignoring the league-wide offensive explosion of 2018, I don't think this offense would have been considered efficient in 2017. I don't think we can blame sample size or outliers here. They are who they are.

    (Side note: the code I need to do this analysis is stuck on a different PC, so unless I rewrite all of the code, the analysis will have to wait until at least tomorrow. I could then update it with the wonderful totals from this afternoon's game though).
    thanks in advance





  8. #20
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    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongBaldy View Post
    thanks in advance
    Seconded. No hurry. I just imagined we would have been top 1/3 in offense prior to that browns game, but i guess not





  9. #21

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Opponent Snaps Total Yards Runs Rushing Yards Passes Passing Yards
    Bills 74 369 (4.99) 34 (46%) 117 (3.44) 40 (54%) 252 (6.30)
    Bengals 81 420 (5.19) 22 (27%) 66 (3.00) 59 (73%) 354 (6.00)
    Broncos 70 342 (4.89) 28 (40%) 77 (2.75) 42 (60%) 265 (6.31)
    Steelers 74 451 (6.09) 30 (46%) 96 (3.20) 44 (54%) 355 (8.07)
    Browns 84 410 (4.88) 25 (30%) 116 (4.64) 59 (70%) 294 (4.98)
    Titans 72 361 (5.01) 35 (49%) 123 (3.51) 37 (51%) 238 (6.43)
    Totals 455 2353 (5.17) 174 (38%) 595 (3.42) 281 (62%) 1758 (6.26)

    The Steelers game is actually the outlier. It includes what is by far the longest offensive play of the season (71 yards to Brown), so that probably shouldn't be surprising. That's the only play over 50 yards. They have 2 other plays for 40+ (both also to Brown).
    Last edited by organizedchaos21; 10-14-2018 at 10:00 PM. Reason: added Titans
    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit

    Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, then Spotrac)





  10. #22

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Posting to bump after I edited the Titans into my previous post.
    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit

    Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, then Spotrac)





  11. #23

    Re: Shotgun Blues?

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    Opponent Snaps Total Yards Runs Rushing Yards Passes Passing Yards
    Bills 74 369 (4.99) 34 (46%) 117 (3.44) 40 (54%) 252 (6.30)
    Bengals 81 420 (5.19) 22 (27%) 66 (3.00) 59 (73%) 354 (6.00)
    Broncos 70 342 (4.89) 28 (40%) 77 (2.75) 42 (60%) 265 (6.31)
    Steelers 74 451 (6.09) 30 (46%) 96 (3.20) 44 (54%) 355 (8.07)
    Browns 84 410 (4.88) 25 (30%) 116 (4.64) 59 (70%) 294 (4.98)
    Titans 72 361 (5.01) 35 (49%) 123 (3.51) 37 (51%) 238 (6.43)
    Totals 455 2353 (5.17) 174 (38%) 595 (3.42) 281 (62%) 1758 (6.26)

    The Steelers game is actually the outlier. It includes what is by far the longest offensive play of the season (71 yards to Brown), so that probably shouldn't be surprising. That's the only play over 50 yards. They have 2 other plays for 40+ (both also to Brown).
    Also looks like the Browns game is an outlier. The YPC was much higher and the YPA passing was much lower. Steelers game YPA was an outlier. The run game needs to be more efficient. Have to cut down on the no gain and negative yardage plays.





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