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  1. Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by blah3 View Post
    We are, we are very far off. Though I can't wait til I get my flying car.
    I guess if you're talking about flying around in a car, yes, far off. As for the other stuff, you could not be more wrong.





  2. #62

    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    I disagree. You can program a robot to do just about anything. It is a matter of cost and return right now, but as easier things are done (like painting a new car, this was one that was automated a while ago) the more difficult tasks will be tackled.

    Fixing plumbing issues in an already built house is VERY difficult. The unexpected situations found in each home is very difficult for a programmer to anticipate and have the computer/robot figure out. But building a house from scratch is much less so. As noted, they already have machines doing some of that work.
    We can build robots to do repeated tasks. Tasks that don't involve thought, anticipation, trouble shooting. So, maybe in 20 years we could get a robot to build a house, if everything goes exactly right, and there is not unforseen problem that occurs. Oh and of course we would still have to design the house and everything involved with it (along with the robot). Clearing the land, plumbing, electrical...
    Fear of technology is not new. Again, it's going to be a shift in job types.





  3. #63
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongBaldy View Post
    They also dont require health insurance or retirement accounts so those jobs gone also.
    seems like universal basic income is what will happen with all the unemployed folks
    Quote Originally Posted by Laxdad24 View Post
    Right. We’d basically “smart “ ourselves right out of a job. Then BIG Gubbment would have us all on Welfare! Right were they want us. Unarmed and pennyless.


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    Quote Originally Posted by WrongBaldy View Post
    Corporations run America
    china is an example where the govt runs stuff
    The problem with this is if we really believe corporations run America, then we would they created something that takes away all jobs and puts people on a fixed income?

    That will reduce the number of people who have jobs or expendable income to buy their products.

    While I do believe we are seeing a shift to AI, and will see a shift to more robots etc. I don't think jobs are going away. I think there will just be different jobs. Much like there has always been..





  4. #64
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    I disagree. You can program a robot to do just about anything. It is a matter of cost and return right now, but as easier things are done (like painting a new car, this was one that was automated a while ago) the more difficult tasks will be tackled.

    Fixing plumbing issues in an already built house is VERY difficult. The unexpected situations found in each home is very difficult for a programmer to anticipate and have the computer/robot figure out. But building a house from scratch is much less so. As noted, they already have machines doing some of that work.
    Almost like a really big cnc machine. Put in plans and let it go.

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  5. #65
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    The problem with this is if we really believe corporations run America, then we would they created something that takes away all jobs and puts people on a fixed income?

    That will reduce the number of people who have jobs or expendable income to buy their products.

    While I do believe we are seeing a shift to AI, and will see a shift to more robots etc. I don't think jobs are going away. I think there will just be different jobs. Much like there has always been..
    But will there be the same number?

    Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk





  6. #66
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by blah3 View Post
    We can build robots to do repeated tasks. Tasks that don't involve thought, anticipation, trouble shooting. So, maybe in 20 years we could get a robot to build a house, if everything goes exactly right, and there is not unforseen problem that occurs. Oh and of course we would still have to design the house and everything involved with it (along with the robot). Clearing the land, plumbing, electrical...
    Fear of technology is not new. Again, it's going to be a shift in job types.
    This isn't true. It isn't the robot that is limited, it is the programmer. Little by little programmers will anticipate different situations and figure out how to handle them.

    For example, a simple robot can screw a bolt into a but as long as the bolt and nut are exactly where they need to be, but a more sophisticated one can find the bolt, then the nut, and screw them together. A robot that paints a car can use lasers to site exactly where the car is and start painting as opposed to needing it in the exact spot on an assembly line, which used to be required.





  7. #67

    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    This isn't true. It isn't the robot that is limited, it is the programmer. Little by little programmers will anticipate different situations and figure out how to handle them.

    For example, a simple robot can screw a bolt into a but as long as the bolt and nut are exactly where they need to be, but a more sophisticated one can find the bolt, then the nut, and screw them together. A robot that paints a car can use lasers to site exactly where the car is and start painting as opposed to needing it in the exact spot on an assembly line, which used to be required.
    Oh wait, so you are saying there is another profession and skill needed before the robots can 'take over'??????





  8. #68
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    True AI isn't going to come from programmers explicitly learning how to tell a robot how to handle each situation. It's going to come from machine learning or some other technique allowing us to make a robot that is smart enough that we don't have to tell it what to do. The current approach (as well as I understand it) is usually to train an algorithm to recognize patterns and make decisions based on those patterns. This is how we get a computer beating people at Go. No one meticulously programmed all the different strategies that can be employed in Go. An algorithm was made that analyzed the patterns it saw when playing the game. That algorithm figured out better ways of playing than humans had yet conceived.

    We're still in the early stages of learning how to do this. But given enough time I think machines can learn to do anything. I have no idea what the time line for complex tasks like being a plumber is, but if we can truly make AI, there's a timeline for everything.

    One question this poses is how to support people whose jobs are displaced. Universal Basic Income may eventually be the answer.

    Another question is how do we make sure the machines only do what we want them to do. Most will think of this in terms of a machine deciding to turn on humans, and this makes for a good movie script, but it could just as easily be out of ambivalence to humans. What if you told a machine to calculate all the digits of pi, and it decided the best way to do this was to turn the planet into one giant calculator. Silly sounding example, but the point is if you make truly brilliant AI how can you be sure you will be able to control what it does. It will think of things we will never think of.





  9. #69
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by blah3 View Post
    Oh wait, so you are saying there is another profession and skill needed before the robots can 'take over'??????
    Uh, that profession exists. They are called computer programmers.





  10. #70
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus View Post
    True AI isn't going to come from programmers explicitly learning how to tell a robot how to handle each situation. It's going to come from machine learning or some other technique allowing us to make a robot that is smart enough that we don't have to tell it what to do. The current approach (as well as I understand it) is usually to train an algorithm to recognize patterns and make decisions based on those patterns. This is how we get a computer beating people at Go. No one meticulously programmed all the different strategies that can be employed in Go. An algorithm was made that analyzed the patterns it saw when playing the game. That algorithm figured out better ways of playing than humans had yet conceived.

    We're still in the early stages of learning how to do this. But given enough time I think machines can learn to do anything. I have no idea what the time line for complex tasks like being a plumber is, but if we can truly make AI, there's a timeline for everything.

    One question this poses is how to support people whose jobs are displaced. Universal Basic Income may eventually be the answer.

    Another question is how do we make sure the machines only do what we want them to do. Most will think of this in terms of a machine deciding to turn on humans, and this makes for a good movie script, but it could just as easily be out of ambivalence to humans. What if you told a machine to calculate all the digits of pi, and it decided the best way to do this was to turn the planet into one giant calculator. Silly sounding example, but the point is if you make truly brilliant AI how can you be sure you will be able to control what it does. It will think of things we will never think of.
    You can't "train an algorithm" to do anything, you program it to learn. It must be programmed to do such a thing. You can't just keep feeding data to an algorithm and have it learn beyond its programming unless the programming includes that ability.

    That said, a car mechanic robot can be taught to read the VIN on a vehicle, then examine to see where it fails to meet the specifications of its original design. Once done it can (having been programmed to) pick the correct adjustments and repairs and do the work. This robot will displace a lot of mechanics and be able to work near 24/7, won't be calling in sick, won't be causing trouble gossiping and spreading rumors, and will do the repairs properly more often





  11. #71
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    You can't "train an algorithm" to do anything, you program it to learn. It must be programmed to do such a thing. You can't just keep feeding data to an algorithm and have it learn beyond its programming unless the programming includes that ability.

    That said, a car mechanic robot can be taught to read the VIN on a vehicle, then examine to see where it fails to meet the specifications of its original design. Once done it can (having been programmed to) pick the correct adjustments and repairs and do the work. This robot will displace a lot of mechanics and be able to work near 24/7, won't be calling in sick, won't be causing trouble gossiping and spreading rumors, and will do the repairs properly more often
    "Train an algorithm" was a poor choice of words. You design an algorithm that, when given data, can learn from the data. But you don't explicit train it to do the tasks it eventually learns. You program it to learn, and give it the data to learn from.

    But yes, we can still explicitly program machines to do things like read a VIN and do other tasks (although even teaching a machine to read numbers and letters often involves machine learning). That's enough to automate a lot of jobs. That's just not the way we are going to get to AI.





  12. #72
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    Re: The Dark Side Of The Singularity

    Quote Originally Posted by Greg View Post
    You can't "train an algorithm" to do anything, you program it to learn. It must be programmed to do such a thing. You can't just keep feeding data to an algorithm and have it learn beyond its programming unless the programming includes that ability.

    That said, a car mechanic robot can be taught to read the VIN on a vehicle, then examine to see where it fails to meet the specifications of its original design. Once done it can (having been programmed to) pick the correct adjustments and repairs and do the work. This robot will displace a lot of mechanics and be able to work near 24/7, won't be calling in sick, won't be causing trouble gossiping and spreading rumors, and will do the repairs properly more often
    Training an algorithm is the term for feeding it data so the underlying statistical models can be created for how it will treat new data it hasn't seen before.

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