The Dark Side Of The Singularity

**Dade** · 07-16-2018, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by Laxdad24

To a degree yes. But a human has to actually service and or install your HVAC unit at home or business. A human is gonna service your car. Construction trades will always be done by humans.

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Robots already build cars. Is it that big of a stretch to make the jump to automation to service those cars? Construction will not always be done by humans IMO. There have been a ton of research papers on it. Check out the journal Automation in Construction. https://www.researchgate.net/journal...n_Construction

Look at this video. We're not too far off from fully automated machines in construction.

**Laxdad24** · 07-16-2018, 03:19 PM

Originally Posted by Dade

Robots already build cars. Is it that big of a stretch to make the jump to automation to service those cars? Construction will not always be done by humans IMO. There have been a ton of research papers on it. Check out the journal Automation in Construction. https://www.researchgate.net/journal...n_Construction

Look at this video. We're not too far off from fully automated machines in construction.

I like the video ...but all those machines are human operated. They make the job quicker and easier. They can do the job with out us. And some on them ( the block laying one comes to mind) would be far too expensive to replace humans. They’d be millions of dollars vs 1,000 of real dollars for humans.
Also I’m not convinced you’d ever have a robot actually build a house. Or a hospital.
I think “manual labor ‘ jobs are gonna be around for a long time. I dont see a robot changing the brake pads on your 2019 Buick.

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**Dade** · 07-16-2018, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Laxdad24

I like the video ...but all those machines are human operated. They make the job quicker and easier. They can do the job with out us. And some on them ( the block laying one comes to mind) would be far too expensive to replace humans. They’d be millions of dollars vs 1,000 of real dollars for humans.
Also I’m not convinced you’d ever have a robot actually build a house. Or a hospital.
I think “manual labor ‘ jobs are gonna be around for a long time. I dont see a robot changing the brake pads on your 2019 Buick.

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We're not there yet but it's coming. Even if it's just machines that need to be operated by a human, it wouldn't take the same amount of humans to operate that machine as it does to build the building. For example, laying concrete. If I could hire 1 human to operate a machine that lays concrete at the same rate as 10 humans would, that's a net loss of 9 jobs. Now multiply that across the thousands of construction sites in the U.S. That's a lot of loss jobs that aren't coming back. And I as an employor I'm incentivized to switch to that business model...less employee salaries, healthcare and benefits, worker's comp, insurance etc. It's a hell of a lot cheaper.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-16-2018, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by Dade

We're not there yet but it's coming. Even if it's just machines that need to be operated by a human, it wouldn't take the same amount of humans to operate that machine as it does to build the building. For example, laying concrete. If I could hire 1 human to operate a machine that lays concrete at the same rate as 10 humans would, that's a net loss of 9 jobs. Now multiply that across the thousands of construction sites in the U.S. That's a lot of loss jobs that aren't coming back. And I as an employor I'm incentivized to switch to that business model...less employee salaries, healthcare and benefits, worker's comp, insurance etc. It's a hell of a lot cheaper.

At what point does that business model eat in to your customer base? Meaning, for every job that goes away, there is one less customer (unless another job is created).

Very fine line we'll be walking here soon.

Might be getting time to head back to farming. Tough to see robots really taking that over completely.

**Laxdad24** · 07-16-2018, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by Dade

We're not there yet but it's coming. Even if it's just machines that need to be operated by a human, it wouldn't take the same amount of humans to operate that machine as it does to build the building. For example, laying concrete. If I could hire 1 human to operate a machine that lays concrete at the same rate as 10 humans would, that's a net loss of 9 jobs. Now multiply that across the thousands of construction sites in the U.S. That's a lot of loss jobs that aren't coming back. And I as an employor I'm incentivized to switch to that business model...less employee salaries, healthcare and benefits, worker's comp, insurance etc. It's a hell of a lot cheaper.

Its cheaper in the long term. Short term its way more expensive. But I do see your point.

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**blah3** · 07-16-2018, 03:35 PM

Originally Posted by Dade

We're not there yet but it's coming. Even if it's just machines that need to be operated by a human, it wouldn't take the same amount of humans to operate that machine as it does to build the building. For example, laying concrete. If I could hire 1 human to operate a machine that lays concrete at the same rate as 10 humans would, that's a net loss of 9 jobs. Now multiply that across the thousands of construction sites in the U.S. That's a lot of loss jobs that aren't coming back. And I as an employor I'm incentivized to switch to that business model...less employee salaries, healthcare and benefits, worker's comp, insurance etc. It's a hell of a lot cheaper.

Technology has been replacing workers for a long time. Cars put horse and buggy out of business. Refrigeration put ice men out of business.
So instead of laying concrete there will be more people making parts for the machine that lays concrete. It's just a shift of the workforce.

**Dade** · 07-16-2018, 04:23 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Might be getting time to head back to farming. Tough to see robots really taking that over completely.

Already there too...

A farm in the United Kingdom is the first in the world to successfully plant, tend and harvest a crop without a single person ever setting foot in the field

https://www.cnn.com/2017/10/07/world...and/index.html

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-t...om-starvation/

**JAB1985** · 07-16-2018, 04:42 PM

Originally Posted by Laxdad24

I like the video ...but all those machines are human operated. They make the job quicker and easier. They can do the job with out us. And some on them ( the block laying one comes to mind) would be far too expensive to replace humans. They’d be millions of dollars vs 1,000 of real dollars for humans.
Also I’m not convinced you’d ever have a robot actually build a house. Or a hospital.
I think “manual labor ‘ jobs are gonna be around for a long time. I dont see a robot changing the brake pads on your 2019 Buick.

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the future may be 3D printed homes with nobody even on site, let alone machines to work.

**WrongBaldy** · 07-16-2018, 05:11 PM

this is why i tell young folks to explore being a plumber. check out how much masters make

**wickedsolo** · 07-16-2018, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by blueridgemtnman

If I were a young person today, or advising one, I'd be looking into robotics as a career path in some way, shape or form. Also, I believe it's coming faster than most think. I imagine Mickey D's, etc. are working fast and furious to automate. Right now.

They already are. What's even more ironic is the fast food chains in the regions that are super socialist/communist have already introduced digital menu selection devices rather than paying someone $15/hr to say "Welcome to McDonald's, can I take your order?"

Right now, the restaurant industry (specifically, fast food restaurants) and shipping/logistics are two of the main industries I see being most impacted by automation/AI.

**WrongBaldy** · 07-16-2018, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

They already are. What's even more ironic is the fast food chains in the regions that are super socialist/communist have already introduced digital menu selection devices rather than paying someone $15/hr to say "Welcome to McDonald's, can I take your order?"

Right now, the restaurant industry (specifically, fast food restaurants) and shipping/logistics are two of the main industries I see being most impacted by automation/AI.

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/visu...st-automation/

**wickedsolo** · 07-16-2018, 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by Dade

Each of those fields you listed already use a large amount of automation. I do agree with teaching young people a trade.

Well, there is automation for those industries from a "service line" perspective.

However, it would be pretty difficult to have a robot go to someone's home and service their HVAC system or, say, weld something on a ship out in the ocean.

Re HVAC systems, what I see are systems that get put into people's homes that are effectively "smart" systems. They can be programmed to detect changes of the ambient temp in the house (much like Google Nest) and adjust accordingly. They can be programmed to interface with weather apps so the systems know when to kick the air on or kick the heat on. They are programmed to detect bugs/glitches in their system and coordinate automated patch updates and/or service scheduling with a technician.